Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard.
dtw-str.streamlit.app
Introducing a daily playoff probability model and a "rooting interest guide" (inspired by @PFF_Moo from Twitter).
Playoff %s from 10K sims w/remaining SOS & home/away advantages.
Rooting Interest analyzes who each team's fans should root for today, based on playoff implications
I'm excited to announce I've accepted a role as Data Scientist for the Chicago Fire.
Thanks to everyone who has given me feedback and advice. I'm ecstatic to be able to learn from/work with some very bright individuals and contribute to the success of a storied MLS franchise!
Obviously, this assumes each Super Bowl is independent and identically distributed, which is false, but good enough for this exercise. We essentially calculate the probability of NOT seeing a Super Bowl by each age:
I'm a Houston Texans fan and have never seen my team win the Super Bowl, which made me think:
If you were born today, then how likely is it that you would be alive to see your favorite team win the Super Bowl?
You have a 50% chance of seeing your team win 1 by age 22.
#NFL #SBLIX
Why this two-way player had one of the best seasons of all time….but it’s not who you think 🧵
Skeptical of Notre Dame's "middle 8" advantage, I thought good teams dominate throughout.
But data shows ND scores 3-18 more points (89% confidence) in these minutes vs other periods.
Whether or not this matters, they do in fact score more in the middle 8.
www.wsj.com/sports/footb...
When McLellan took over, the Red Wings were .433. Since then? 8-4.
Using a Beta-Binomial model with a .500 prior, there's an 81% chance they're now truly an above-.500 team.
Best estimate of their true win rate: .591 (90% CI: .418-.755)
Hockey is cool