As seen by satellite bsky.app/profile/weat...

and the final forecast track map

12 days of forecast track maps issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for Tropical Cyclone Narelle, on its journey around 3 states and with multiple land crossings

"Download data" link here: www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/...

Operational convection-permitting NWP forecast of tropical cyclone landfall followed by seafall 🤩

❤️Numberphile❤️

Extreme wildfire spread isn’t just wind-driven. We show the Camp Fire’s explosive growth came from plume-coupled spotting: embers lofted, transported, and deposited in organized zones 5–10+ km ahead, igniting new fire fronts. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10....

@fluidsguru.bsky.social

Exe estuary stunning this evening

The PV (Potential Vorticity) song by Prof. Michael E. McIntyre of Univ. of Cambridge YouTube video by 27knakajima

and Michael E McIntyre's classical version youtu.be/g2-RpvGGQU4?..., score in comments

PV Song - 25th Anniversary YouTube video by Nick Hall

It's great, but it's definitely not the only one we'll ever need... youtu.be/P_LDF9IQJbg?...

Nice trajectories 😉

Global Research Network Gains Time in the Race Against Wheat Rust The Disease Early Warning Advisory System (DEWAS) network is a unique model to prevent wheat rust outbreaks, safeguarding harvests worldwide. This letter shares the approach and importance of DEWAS, ...

Global research network gains time in the race against #wheat #rust doi.org/10.1111/ppa....

Probabilistic quantitative volcanic ash concentration forecast system, underpinned by NAME atmospheric dispersion modelling driven by MOGREPS-G ensemble NWP forecasts, now live!

The book "Biological Highways in the Sky" about the aerial dispersion of microbes and small insects is available free of charge in ebook form via the #ÉditionsQuae platform: www.quae-open.com/produit/346/...
@dbszane.bsky.social

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Fantastic news, congratulations!!

... Exodus 10:19 -- "And the Lord changed the wind to a very strong west wind, which caught up the locusts and carried them into the Red Sea. Not a locust was left anywhere in Egypt"

Windborne migration of locusts in the Old Testament. Exodus 10:13 -- "So Moses stretched out his staff over Egypt, and the Lord made an east wind blow across the land all that day and all that night. By morning the wind had brought the locusts" ...

At least an area the size of Wales!! en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...

Improving vertical detail in simulated temperature and humidity data using machine learning There are atmospheric phenomena that occur on scales smaller than the thickness of model layers. The formation of low-level clouds due to temperature inversions is an example. Using radiosonde observ....

Not quite the question you are asking, but related nonetheless rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Of course the ECMWF isn't an "EU operation", and has UK, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Turkey as Member States (whereas Poland *isn't* an ECMWF Member State, and several other EU countries are only Co-operating States of the ECMWF)

Can compare notes with my "hotpot and carrots" a couple of weeks ago. Couldn't face photographing the chicken accompanied by sprouts the following evening, which may well have been cooked by the same chef that did your broccoli...

Quite the tease... 😆 Do you have anything up on the arXiv yet??

Colliding, or leaning in for a kiss?

This international surveillance project aims to protect wheat from deadly diseases Backed by the Gates Foundation, the Wheat Disease Early Warning Advisory System is on the front lines, looking for early signals of crop-killing rust infections.

NAME dispersion-model predictions of the spread of fungal spores are a key part of this multi-agency early warning and advisory system for diseases of wheat www.technologyreview.com/2024/12/26/1...

A framework for modelling desert locust population dynamics and large-scale dispersal Author summary There is a critical need for tools that can help manage and predict the spread of transboundary pests, especially the desert locust, one of the most destructive pests for smallholder fa...

By using concepts from epidemiological modelling, we (@camplantsci.bsky.social, @metoffice.bsky.social and @fao.org) have developed an integrated modelling framework for doing just this!

Paper (open access): journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol...

Press release: phys.org/news/2024-12...

How do you combine simple atmospheric dispersion modelling trajectories like this with environmental data and population biology knowledge to make short- and long-term predictions of desert locust swarm migration?

Back from 2 days at the UK vector-borne disease @ukvbd.bsky.social conference in Liverpool, where I discovered i) how little I understand about biology, but ii) how keen everyone else was to learn about atmospheric dispersion modelling. Thanks @baylism.bsky.social et al for bringing us all together!

"Miso-scale" convection