Fat thumbs…

For all

Agree Stephen god all the reasons you list. And panels flow much better as a result.

One of the strangest ironies of the last ten years has been watching Britain immersing itself as deeply as ever in memories of WW2 while proudly turning its back on the project that emerged from it.

Not to tread on my own pay-off, but I think the being-stupid-about-AI problem goes quite a long way up the intelligence spectrum.

thecritic.co.uk/plausibility...

If countries deliberately reduce their workforces as populations age it will cause endemic economic failure.

Mind-blowing stats on nurseries in China: the number of births has fallen by half *since 2017*, leading to a collapse in early years provision.

The future impact on primary and secondary education is going to be seismic.

www.ft.com/content/8271...

Someone at the BBC has a sense of humour. Back to the Future is showing on BBC One - while Trump visits Scotland.

I can’t grow anything but Xmas trees on my flat roof because everything else gets dug up by squirrels..! 😳

I spent YEARS counting calories. Would be fine for two days then by day three I was so HUNGRY. And anxiety meant I used food to knock down cortisol. But weight loss happened easily with Mounjaro.

How do you stop all the bird food from being eaten by squirrels?

The later part of the piece is good. The ‘it’s easy to lose weight, you just need to pay attention to what you eat’ part is infuriating.

Farage has shown how an effective campaigner can make large parties dance to your tune. And yet…

It is something I find so deeply odd. Because the fury about being outside the EU is still there. The professional classes are profoundly angry with the lack of economic understanding and yet there is so recognition of this among the major parties.

It’s always steel — tariffs provide Trump with a familiar trade weapon The industry has suffered from overproduction and protectionism for decades

Steel is a fine example of the confused and increasingly moribund political economy debate across Europe and North America, in which a tangle of protectionism, security, swing voters, run down areas, and subsidies seems incapable of being satisfactorily resolved. www.ft.com/content/ecc3...

Great stuff.

Watching the first series of Yes, Minister. Now 45 years old. And it’s still as fresh as a daisy. Nothing has really changed! Which is in equal measure funny and depressing.

What spending reviews are like from the inside It's not pretty

New post just out:

"What spending reviews are like from the inside"

I explain how demented they are.

And why this is the hardest one there's been so far.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/w...

As a pensions journalist it could be the move from pensions deficits to surplus due to changes in bond yields and that adding to the value of overseas corporations balance sheets?

Perhaps notable that the Tory polling collapse in the last month has been almost entirely concentrated among older voters, while the Labour polling dip is almost wholly among younger voters.

On the Brink Universities are in serious financial trouble - what can be done about it?

New post just out:

"On the Brink"

Why so many universities are in serious financial trouble.

Why it's about to get worse.

What the government could do about it.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/o...

Labour ministers need to acknowledge that reality. Raising GDP growth is impossible without addressing the trade-related problems. And, my own view is that this cannot be done without more ambitious improvements to the UK’s most important trading partner – the EU. /23

A perfect storm: Britain's trade malaise, weak growth and a new geopolitical moment The UK is facing its most severe trade challenge in decades – and at the worst possible time.

We need to talk about the UK's trade and growth. I've just published a new piece with @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social on what's happened to UK trade since the pandemic and Brexit, and what it means for growth. The picture isn't pretty.

A thread (with many charts):

www.cer.eu/insights/per...

Back to Lancaster House The UK-EU "reset" takes shape, but the post-Brexit foundations remain intact

This week's UK-EU "reset" deal, while it might help on the margins (eg, trade in food products and energy flows), won't shift the growth dial. It simply won't address the complex underlying dynamics at play. /24

antonspisak.substack.com/p/back-to-la...

Important thread on how badly Labour's positioning is undermining its support.

The tl;dr summary: everyone thinks Labour is trying to appeal to Reform (and Con) voters more than Lab ones, never mind LD/Grn. But Ref voters don't want to know, while it's alienating those on the left.

Thread follows.

Leaked: Starmer’s Brexit reset deal in full Prime Minister has signed up to a number of agreements with the EU

My initial impressions - probably more balanced than I was expecting with UK clearly prioritising Home Office issues. But less detail - talks on individual issues will be really difficult. There will need to be a strong political layer to maintain progress.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05...

Formally now time to welcome the UK to a Swiss-style relationship of permanent negotiation and multiple deals with the EU.

Did you go to the Le Cheval D’Or for the duck?

Why in a two week period with India/US trade deals, a new European deal and some positive (albeit possibly temporary) economic news would you make immigration the dominant story?

In short, Starmer has taken a massive hit among Labour voters, for no gain elsewhere, while boosting Farage's popularity, including doubling his ceiling among Labour voters.

I.e., the political scientists were right, Morgan McSweeney was horrendously wrong.