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Posts by Abu Aardvark

“Maximum pressure” wow that’s definitely an Iran policy that’s never been tried before

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Israeli recognition of Somaliland and UAE position on it was a much bigger issue than people seemed to realize, there’s a reason it triggered so much intra-Arab contention — stakes for Red Sea shipping are high

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New all purpose gif you’re welcome

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College Where Charlie Kirk Was Killed Revokes Graduation Speaker’s Invite

Billionaire funded TPUSA's goal is to police public discourse such that anyone to their left who speaks truthfully about what Charlie Kirk said or did, using his own words as evidence, will not be allowed to speak those truths to college students in red states. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/u...

7 hours ago 668 163 14 6
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You’d think there’s no way anyone would be fooled by these seemingly AI-generated pictures of “beautiful Iranian women” about to be executed, but then here’s the president asking Iran to spare them and then thanking them for it, and outlets are covering it like it’s real. Just a weird subplot.

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CPJ calls for immediate rescue of Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil, trapped under rubble in southern Lebanon - Committee to Protect Journalists UPDATE: On April 22, the Red Cross reported that they had found the body of Amal Khalil under the rubble. Beirut, April 22, 2026—The Committee to Protect Journalists is outraged that the Israeli Defen...

Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil found dead after being trapped in rubble following Israeli strike, obstruction of rescue:
cpj.org?p=583367

2 hours ago 151 110 1 12

Nothing does

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Pentagon Assessment Clashes With Trump’s Claims on Iran as Public Opposes Continuing War Seven in 10 Americans want the war in Iran to end “as quickly as possible,” a new poll shows.

As Trump repeatedly lies and contradicts himself on Iran's military capabilities, a new Pentagon report shows that Trump’s own intelligence agencies view Iran as more capable of fighting the war than he or his underlings state publicly.

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Front page of Lebanon’s L’Orient Le Jour newspaper, with a photo of the Israeli flag flying over a town in southern Lebanon. The headline: “The Nakba of South Lebanon”

Front page of Lebanon’s L’Orient Le Jour newspaper, with a photo of the Israeli flag flying over a town in southern Lebanon. The headline: “The Nakba of South Lebanon”

“The Nakba of South Lebanon” — front page of L’Orient-Le Jour today

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From Lost War To Forever War in Iran Trump blinked, but now the war has become a permanent crisis

It’s time to bottom-line this next phase of the Iran War, the one that’s being presented as an extended ceasefire.

2 hours ago 48 17 2 4
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It will be the law of the jungle.

Market analysts are already predicting that rich countries will outbid poor countries for scarce oil and gas supplies. This means energy famine for the Global South.

Link: www.ft.com/content/6ca1...

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How Israel is destroying Lebanon’s water infrastructure Israel is 'deliberately' attacking Lebanon's water, experts say, aiming to displace or kill south Lebanon's population.

I spoke to experts about how Israel is destroying Lebanon’s water infrastructure.

www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

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Not posted yet sorry but soon

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I’ve got a working paper on that!

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NEW: Censorship and Surveillance at US Universities Dear Friends and Comrades, Today we’re publishing the first piece from our forthcoming issue on campus activism and repression since October 7, 2023. In “Censorship and Surveillance at US Universitie...

In “Censorship and Surveillance at US Universities,” Torin Monahan details the expansive apparatus used by university administrations, often following federal or state political pressures, to police pro-Palestine and progressive speech on campuses across the country.

@merip.bsky.social

4 days ago 22 16 1 3
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Project MUSE -- Verification required!

Interesting piece on the limits of authoritarian use of AI which tracks with the Arab cases I’ve written about

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

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Would love to have the kind of data needed to do this for the Arab online public sphere. Fascinating.

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In Tunisia, investigative outlet Inkyfada threatened with closure as crackdown on independent press intensifies Following a suspension and funds being withheld on multiple occasions, the Tunisian authorities have stepped up their offensive on the independent press. On 11 May 2026, the Tunis Court of First Insta...

Deeply worrying: In Tunisia, the well known investigative outlet Inkyfada is being threatened with closure as the crackdown on independent press and civil society intensifies rsf.org/en/tunisia-i...

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Iran Tankers Go Dark to Sail Past US Blockade Laden With Oil At least two fully laden Iranian tankers have sailed out of the Persian Gulf and past a US blockade this week, part of a flotilla that has made its way around the warships and ferried roughly 9 millio...

Porous blockade:
• Iranian ships are sailing past US blockade line at Hormuz
• This article says they've moved 9 million barrels of oil to the market
• That's about 1 million barrels of oil per day, given that the blockade began on 13 April

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Scoop: It could take six months to fully clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines and any such operation is unlikely to be carried out until the U.S. war with Iran ends, the Pentagon has informed Congress www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

5 hours ago 13 7 1 5
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How Syria’s Revolution Was Misunderstood, by Its Rulers and the World Across five books, a portrait emerges of an uprising shaped by division at home and blindness abroad

NEW: Syria’s revolution was first crushed, and then misread. @qunfuz.bsky.social reviews five recent books that are correcting the record on the country's long uprising and its surprising aftermath, for @newlinesmag.bsky.social . newlinesmag.com/review/how-s...

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Gause, the State, and War I'm in that rare situation of publishing two pieces at the same time which, in key ways, disagree with each other: my contribution to a Middle East Law and Governance roundtable celebrating the schola...

Gause, the State, and War - my new piece examines the connections and contradictions between my debate with Greg Gause about working with autocratic regimes and the current US-Israeli driven devastation of the region.

abuaardvarkghost.ghost.io/gause-the-st...

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I don’t actually need the talking points on Platner, thanks.

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Opinion | Graham Platner Went to Hell and Back. He Has a Simple Message for Democrats.

Very different take on Platner than the “omg Nazi tattoo” that
dominates on here, packaged in genuinely compelling @benrhodes.bsky.social argument about the need for Dems to address the generational failures and effects of the forever wars and why they won’t.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/22/o...

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“The cash is Iraq's money, proceeds from oil sales held at the New York Fed”

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Exclusive | U.S. Blocks Iraq’s Dollar Shipments to Squeeze Its Iran-Backed Militias The Trump administration also suspended security cooperation with Baghdad in an escalating pressure campaign.

The US blocked a $500-million shipment of dollar banknotes to Iraq – 2nd time since the Iran war began

The cash is Iraq's money, proceeds from oil sales held at the New York Fed

Iraq needs the notes to keep its cash-based economy functioning

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

11 hours ago 12 8 1 2

In a nutshell, the ANES data shows:
📉 Social media use is shrinking; engagement collapsing
💥 Twitter/X posting has moved ~70 POINTS to the right
🧩 Platforms are splintering
🔊 Fewer people are talking — but those still talking are more politically extreme

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Opinion | Trump Corrupts, and Absolute Trump Corrupts Absolutely

“To say that President Trump is corrupt is to somehow understate the size, scope and magnitude of his corruption.

It is as if you were to describe a modern thermonuclear device as a ‘bomb.’ That is true enough, but it is not quite the truth. It does not capture the nature of the thing in full.”

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Trust Trump? Iran’s Doubts Shadow Peace Talks.

Oh wow who could have possibly foreseen this conundrum. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/u...

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Trump Is Said to Be in Talks to Send Afghans Who Aided U.S. Forces to Congo

This is monstrous. Just profoundly shameful behavior by our government.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/21/w...

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