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Posts by Cannon "like boom" Cloud

While a step in the right direction, these proposals are inadequate. To create a system where every vote counts equally, the Constitution must be amended. To do this, Congress should pass legislation reducing the size of Washington, D.C., to an area encompassing only a few core federal buildings and then admit the rest of the District’s 127 neighborhoods15 as states. These states — which could be added with a simple congressional majority — would add enough votes in Congress to ratify four amendments: (1) a transfer of the Senate’s power to a body that represents citizens equally; (2) an expansion of the House so that all citizens are represented in equal-sized districts; (3) a replacement of the Electoral College with a popular vote; and (4) a modification of the Constitution’s amendment process that would ensure future amendments are ratified by states representing most Americans.

While a step in the right direction, these proposals are inadequate. To create a system where every vote counts equally, the Constitution must be amended. To do this, Congress should pass legislation reducing the size of Washington, D.C., to an area encompassing only a few core federal buildings and then admit the rest of the District’s 127 neighborhoods15 as states. These states — which could be added with a simple congressional majority — would add enough votes in Congress to ratify four amendments: (1) a transfer of the Senate’s power to a body that represents citizens equally; (2) an expansion of the House so that all citizens are represented in equal-sized districts; (3) a replacement of the Electoral College with a popular vote; and (4) a modification of the Constitution’s amendment process that would ensure future amendments are ratified by states representing most Americans.

Seeing as how the Democrats will soon control both chambers of Congress, allow me to introduce you to the most based idea ever suggested in the Harvard Law Review:

"Congress should admit each Washington D.C. neighborhood as its own state."

1 month ago 37 12 3 9

At the same time I am seeing posts that you can run basically "good as last year frontier models" on your laptop or a raspberry pi, so not every aspect of this will be too expensive.

2 hours ago 2 0 1 0
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Navigating the "Problem from Hell": A Guide to Climate Damages (Forthcoming Article) - Multiple lines of research aim to quantify the economic impacts of climate change. We show that the effects of climate change on economic activity depend on how climate change alters weather across time and space. Changes in contemporary weather have direct effects on output; changes in past weather and in expectations of future weather induce adaptation; and changes in weather elsewhere around the globe introduce a general equilibrium effect. Using this framework, we argue that estimation of climate impacts faces a trilemma. A methodology can have at most two of: (i) robustness to a particular economic model’s structure, (ii) interpretation as effects of persistent, widespread, anticipated climate change, and (iii) quasi-experimental identification. We summarize the literature on climate damages in light of the trilemma. A solid body of knowledge has developed around direct effects, and recent work has made substantial progress towards understanding adaptation and spatial spillovers.

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Navigating the 'Problem from Hell': A Guide to Climate Damages" by Derek Lemoine, Catherine Hausman, and Jeffrey G. Shrader.

2 days ago 7 3 0 0

What do you mean by underlying?

1 day ago 0 0 0 0

If Iran ended up imposing a $1/bl tarrif on oil transiting the Hormuz Strait, and we modeled it is a tax, who would end up paying it? What's more elastic, Demand for Persian Gulf oil or Supply of Persian Gulf Oil?

2 days ago 7 1 2 0

The one time a submit a post. Didn't mean to hit "post" that hard

6 days ago 1 0 0 0

I saw some paper (maybe WP) someone posted on here about pollution dispersion from coal power plants being carried out of county in the US. Can anyone point me to that?

6 days ago 0 0 0 0
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Can we get a whale LLM I can run on my computer? I have reasons

1 week ago 3 0 0 0

I was just wondering if there was much non-parametric stuff I should be learning

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

null is a synonym for "no thank you"

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

I bet it worked for Drebin

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

What kind of methods are you throwing into non-parametric identification?

1 week ago 0 0 1 0

So more like Trans-transylvania, or trans-trans-transylvania? How many Trans til we are ballpark there?

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

Bruh Dracula is there, right, or somewhere near by? 🧛‍♂️

1 week ago 6 0 2 0
A grid of five line charts titled "Stability of Marginal Effects: Biophysical Predictors," comparing a main spatially paired model (solid red line) against a municipality fixed-effects specification (dashed blue line). The charts show Partial Dependence Plots for Distance to forest, Forest density, Soil pH, Soil bulk density, and Fire frequency. Across all five charts, the red and blue lines closely overlap in shape and slope, demonstrating that the estimated marginal effects (the curves) remain highly stable even when accounting for regional unobservables.

A grid of five line charts titled "Stability of Marginal Effects: Biophysical Predictors," comparing a main spatially paired model (solid red line) against a municipality fixed-effects specification (dashed blue line). The charts show Partial Dependence Plots for Distance to forest, Forest density, Soil pH, Soil bulk density, and Fire frequency. Across all five charts, the red and blue lines closely overlap in shape and slope, demonstrating that the estimated marginal effects (the curves) remain highly stable even when accounting for regional unobservables.

A two-panel figure titled "Forest density (+1 pp): Absolute divergence in predicted uplift." The left panel is a map of Brazil showing the difference in predicted probability between a standard model and a fixed-effects model. Most of the map is white, indicating zero or near-zero divergence. The right panel is a histogram showing the distribution of this divergence across all pixels. The distribution is tightly peaked at zero, with a subtitle noting a median divergence of +0.00 percentage points and a 95th percentile absolute divergence of only 1.47 percentage points.

A two-panel figure titled "Forest density (+1 pp): Absolute divergence in predicted uplift." The left panel is a map of Brazil showing the difference in predicted probability between a standard model and a fixed-effects model. Most of the map is white, indicating zero or near-zero divergence. The right panel is a histogram showing the distribution of this divergence across all pixels. The distribution is tightly peaked at zero, with a subtitle noting a median divergence of +0.00 percentage points and a 95th percentile absolute divergence of only 1.47 percentage points.

Friends also don't let friends claim causality from a spatial random forest just by throwing variables at it. I never thought I'd be here, yet here I am 😅. To test for confounding, I compared PDPs and mapped local marginal effects against a municipality fixed-effects spatial sponge. Maybe it works?

1 week ago 2 0 2 0
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I think Mythos teleports you there.

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

Couldnt have had a better umbrella holder

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Trump’s proposed attacks on civilian infrastructure in Iran tonight must be stopped.

Calling for the end of Persian ‘civilization’ is a call for genocide, and any decent human being must oppose it. His actions make him unfit for office.

See my full statement here: cohen.house.gov/media-center...

2 weeks ago 38 18 2 0

I thought you'd like it 😉

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

Sure, but a bit of this is an accounting semantics exercise of what is wealth. We could change what we are measuring to ~waffles per person per year~ or w/e you find important and we could still see growth.

2 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

says the Großer Mann.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

This is not lets-propose-this-and-see-what-Congress-says. Their plan is more like USAID: eliminate before Congress can weigh in.

2 weeks ago 690 254 9 7

@tiago.skewed.de also when do you start at Goethe. Maybe we can grab a coffee sometime?

2 weeks ago 0 1 0 0

This is good bsky.app/profile/did:...

2 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

The first thing that crosses my mind, is maybe there isn't better data to look at the same question with, otherwise the original paper might have used it. You can re-run a study in psychology, you can't get new national statistics.

2 weeks ago 2 0 0 0
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Cloudy with a chance of no clouds: Why weather forecasts are worse in low-income countries Weather forecasts in low-income countries are about 20 years behind those in high-income countries, worsening economic losses and increasing vulnerability to climate-related risks.

🆕 Cloudy with a chance of no clouds: Why weather forecasts are worse in low-income countries

Today on VoxDev w/ Manuel Linsenmeier (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt) & Jeffrey Shrader (Columbia | SIPA): https://ow.ly/vrhb50YAviw

3 weeks ago 7 4 1 2

Supply curve moves right, seems like RA optimal quantity might increase.

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

But this seems like it is assuming it doesn't get that bad for them.

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

Why would western support be conditional on holding up Chinese or Malaysian ships. Trump might need a proxy acting unilaterally to take away Iran's control of the straight, and it would be nice for him to say, "It's not me, what can I do about it", but these are just my first thoughts.

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

dumb question by why wouldn't UAE, if faced with existential threat, shut down Iranian allowed traffic to stall everything?

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0