Feds’ draft environmental review calls for expanded plutonium pit production at Los Alamos

Federal plan would boost Los Alamos plutonium pit production to at least 80 a year, triggering 50-year impacts and public review.

Trump's 'a whole civilization will die' threat against Iran exploits long-standing ambiguity over what Washington considers legal in war "These developments unfold within a broader context marked by a significant—and deeply troubling—erosion of international humanitarian law."

President Trump's latest ultimatum promising massive infrastructure strikes on Tuesday night confirms that the international community may face a stark escalation in the war in Iran, write @alialkis.bsky.social and @ludovicacast.bsky.social.

A conflict of attrition: Iran’s bet on asymmetric warfare The Iran war shows how weaker opponents can leverage asymmetric advantages to effect and how stronger opponents may still limit their tactics.

"Thus far, Iran's warfare has to some degree degraded American and Israeli capabilities, increased pressure on Washington, and hampered the global economy [...] But Tehran's strategy has serious limits," writes Spenser A. Warren @spenserawarren.bsky.social.

A conflict of attrition: Iran’s bet on asymmetric warfare The Iran war shows how weaker opponents can leverage asymmetric advantages to effect and how stronger opponents may still limit their tactics.

My latest in @thebulletin.org explores Iran's use of asymmetric warfare and disruptive technologies to counter a conventionally superior United States.

thebulletin.org/2026/04/a-co...

Cue people (probably economists) ‘discovering’ the power of maritime strategy, commerce, and the influence of the sea upon world politics…

Just wanted to remind folks, especially the GOP and the FDD, that Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal didn’t give Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz or allow it to keep 60% enriched uranium. It sent $1.7 billion to Iran versus the tens of billions Iran will now make from tolls. 🤷🏽‍♂️

We should never forget this was a war of choice, over military objections, with a clear outcome (closing of Strait) forecast decades in advance and warned of in the moment, at great human cost, initiated by one man (pushed by another), who wanted to play the tough guy with a military now depleted.

A conflict of attrition: Iran’s bet on asymmetric warfare The Iran war shows how weaker opponents can leverage asymmetric advantages to effect and how stronger opponents may still limit their tactics.

"For Iran—in overall military terms far weaker than the United States—an asymmetry strategy attempts to counter expensive, often exquisite US capabilities with cheaper, lower-tech weapons and tactics designed to target critical American vulnerabilities," writes @spenserawarren.bsky.social.

National Defense Strategy ‘falls short’ on nuclear, space threat: SASC chair Russian space weapon is ‘very significant,’ head of U.S. Strategic Command says.

Well that's because it focuses on what's truly important: Greenland and the Panama Canal

National Defense Strategy ‘falls short’ on nuclear, space threat: SASC chair www.defenseone.com/threats/2026...

The DC Metro

Happy birthday to the Washington Metro, which opened 50 years ago today with service on 4.6 mi of Red Line between Rhode Is. Ave & Farragut N. System now serves 130 mi.

The DC Metro shows that, with good planning & enough investment, the public sector can succeed & build something extraordinary.

Bad bad bad on more levels that we can count. We are going to take down two power grids (see Cuba), cause two major humanitarian disasters, for no national security reason (not that that excuses it), at risk of significant further escalation?

This is How Not To Do War 101.

Is the plan for this illegal and unnecessary war to leave a weakened but deeply embittered regime in place in Iran, burning with desire for revenge, in control of 440 kg or so of 60% enriched HEU? I'm sure that will be a fantastic result for U.S., Israeli, and world security.

So foreseeable that my amazing former colleague @proftalmadge.bsky.social published this analysis, “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz,” in 2008 in @intsecurity.bsky.social.

www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf

The more I think about this, the more I think it is a huge underappreciated risk (on top of the other big risks). There's the day after problem for Iran itself, but also for the region. American diplomacy, influence, soft power, in tatters. Saudis condemned this. Huge diplomatic vacuum.

Farce, Again? Some preliminary thoughts on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran

I've written at least two op-eds that are sitting in the mailboxes of editors that may or may not publish them. So here's a preliminary take:

"One can believe the regime deserved to fall and still believe this war is a disaster in the making."

hedgeofstate.substack.com/p/farce-again

Increasing the likelihood of a bad outcome for everyone, the United States and Iranians included.

Israel and the US strike Iran. It is a tragedy of Tehran's own making Iran's strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war. That proved fatal on Saturday.

In a new opinion piece, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social argues that Iran's nuclear strategy rested on the critical assumption that the US administration preferred a deal to a war.

Read the AI used nukes paper and my takeaway is that AI doesn't behave the way humans do because humans don't really behave the way theories of nuclear escalation say we do/should

We might end up with a dictatorship of the IRGC, the strongest remaining institution— worse for both US interests and the Iranian people. 6/x

Some points on possible strikes on Iran:🧵1/x

I am a doctrinaire universalist. We are all sinners before an angry God, and we are all saved by the wonderful love of God.

But man, if I were Musk or Vought would I be scared to meet my Maker.

If it’s actual “testing” of new anti drone weapons, then why are we testing near a major population center where countless civilians have smartphones and can record video of things in the sky blowing up instead of, say, a remote dry lake bed in Nevada?

Airspace closure followed spat over drone-related tests and party balloon shoot-down, sources say Pentagon officials had undertaken planning to use military technology near Fort Bliss, in El Paso, to practice downing drones.

Seems the Pentagon is testing anti-drone high-energy lasers near Fort Bliss in El Paso, and didn't feel this was dangerous enough to close airspace over.

The FAA administrator disagreed.

Last week, these lasers successfully protected the American people from a sinister children's party balloon.

Kenneth Walker, Spartan legend, Super Bowl MVP.

Democracy might die in darkness but the @washingtonpost.com is being murdered in broad daylight. For NatSec reporting, you can’t understand power by staring at press releases; you have to chase it across borders. Foreign correspondents are a bloodline for a NatSec desk

It was a pleasure to join Nicole Wiley to discuss my recent War on the Rocks article for their podcast The Insider. The episode is now available for all War on the Rocks members.

New today for War on the Rocks members:

Annexing Greenland Would Be a Strategic Failure warontherocks.com/ca...

The risks surrounding Greenland are not limited to the Arctic. They extend directly to NATO’s foundation. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

This NDS does not position the US for nuclear arms racing post New START.

While DoD prioritizes Golden Dome “to cost-effectively defeat large missile barrages,” US will “modernize and adapt” its nuclear forces for deterrence and escalation management—no talk of expansion for dominance or so.

“Russia will remain a persistent but manageable threat to NATO’s eastern members for the foreseeable future. … [Our] NATO allies are substantially more powerful than Russia … positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense, with critical but more limited US support.”