I’m updating the full chart pack with the post-survey forecasts this week. 📊

If you want the PDF (free), just comment "CHARTS" or DM me and I’ll send it over.

Good luck in the markets! 🫡

#MacroStrategy #BondMarket #TIPS #FixedIncome

5/ Today’s Yield Snapshot:

TIPS: 1.94% (10y)
Linkers: 1.50% (10y)
UST: 4.32% (10y)
Gilts: 4.81% (10y)

4/ Decision Time ⚖️

• Buy Bonds? If the AI boom crests or Capex flinches, current yields are a steal.

• Protection? If you fear 1980s stagflation, TIPS (1.94%) and UK Linkers (1.50%) offer a major margin of safety vs. projected real growth.

3/ The Inflation Variance 🌪️

The average inflation forecast is 3.0%, but the median is much lower at 2.4%.

My "Deja-Vu" model finds two distinct paths: • Parallels to the 1979 oil crisis (Extreme upside risk) • Weak labor/money supply (Disinflationary)

2/ Timely Signals vs. Dated Accounts 🕰️

National Accounts are old news. This week’s Empire and Philly Fed surveys are critical, they are the first data points to capture sentiment following recent geopolitical escalations.

If Capex rolls over here, the AI-shield vanishes.

1/ The AI Infrastructure Anchor ⚓️

Our growth forecasts have ticked up to 1.5%. But this is heavily skewed.

Exclude Business Equipment Investment (AI build-out), and year-ahead growth falls to zero. This single component is the difference between modest growth and recession.

Strip out AI, and US growth hits zero. 📉

The 10-year yield at 4.3% looks like "fair value," but the foundations are surprisingly flimsy. Beneath the headline growth data, there is a massive divergence unfolding.

A thread on the "AI-shield" and the 1980s parallel. 🧵👇

Links:

Website articles (full Q1 review):

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/articles

Free trial:

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/home

EFA and your investment process?

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/consultancy

Free weekly chart pack:

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/sign_up

Systematic investing, not day-trading. In a volatile world, a repeatable process is your best defense.

Want to see the full 18-page review, start a trial or initiate a conversation ?

Links are in the bio/next post. 👇

#Investing #Quant #BehaviouralFinance #EFA

[5/5]

📊 Annualised vs bm since launch:

•Equity Index Selection (v 1.0) 🟢 +15.8%.
•Equity Combined (v 1.0) 🟢 +15.8%.
•Equity Index Selection (v 2.0) 🟢 +15.3%.
•Equity Combined (v 2.0) 🟢 +39.9%.
•Equity Index Core Selection 🟢 +7.5%.
•Equity Sector Selection 🔴-1.4%.

[4/5]

📈 Q1 vs Benchmark:

• Equity Index Selection (v 1.0) 🟢 +8.2%.
• Equity Combined (v 1.0) 🟢 +8.2%.
• Equity Index Selection (v 2.0) 🟢 +15.0%.
• Equity Combined (v 2.0) 🟢 +23.0%.
• Equity Index Core Selection 🟢 +5.1%.
• Equity Sector Selection 🔴 -4.4%.

[3/5]

The human factor (swings from fear to greed and back) remain a dominant force.

Our goal isn't to out-guess the market, but to provide a disciplined framework that navigates these cycles without the stress.

Results for Q1 were good but within expectations...[2/5]

Discipline Over Emotion: Q1 2026 Update 🔹

At Edinburgh Financial Analytics, our models are approaching the 2-year mark since launch.

Encouragingly, post-launch performance continues to track ahead of our back-test, a pleasing start to our real-world track record. 🧵👇 [1/5]

Here's your link to the free chart pack:

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/sign_up

But is "Fair Value" enough? 🤔

With other asset classes struggling for an attractive entry level, do bonds look better than the alternatives?

What are you buying here? 👇

#FixedIncome #Macro #Investing #BondMarket #Gold (6/6)

4/ The Bottom Line 📉

Yields now fairly reflect the growth/inflation outlook, even with $100 oil.

I’ll be tracking these models in my free weekly chart pack. Link in reply for you to follow the data as it evolves. (5/6)

3/ The Growth Forecast 🔮

Using the Duncan Leading Indicator (h/t
@epbresearch.bsky.social
), here’s the 1-year outlook:

• Real GDP: 1.4% (1.2% ex-AI)
• Inflation: 3.0% (Up from 2% pre-Iran war)

Central case for Nominal GDP: 4.4%. (4/6)

2/ The Cyclical Pulse 💓

Since 1980, 1-year changes in nominal GDP typically move with yields.

Direction of travel is clear: if you can forecast nominal GDP, you can forecast the yield path. (3/6)

1/ The Structural Anchor ⚓️

Historical data shows a powerful link between yields and smoothed nominal GDP.

Why? Because the risk-free alternative to a bond is a virtual investment in the wider economy (productivity + inflation).

Verdict: Bonds are at Fair Value. (2/6)

US yields are back to the level they were when I was born. 📈

That makes me either a Boomer or a Zoomer! Either way, bonds are anything but boring.

They’ve swung from 15% to 0%, taking down many politicians along the way. Here’s the macro setup: (1/6) 🧵

But what to do next? Here's what EFA models are suggesting:

bsky.app/profile/edin...

Here's your link to the free weekly chart pack:

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/sign_up

In summary: Uncertainty is extreme even before you open your news feed. Expect high vol to continue.

Is this a hedging moment or a buying opportunity? Let’s discuss below. 👇

These charts and much more in the FREE Chart Pack. Link in comments.

#Macro #StockMarket #VIX #SPX

The $VIX closed Friday at 27. While that looks like a "fear peak," our model suggests the volatility will continue.

If you want to maintain exposure without the stomach-churning swings, equity call options are a valid alternative to spot positions.

Our volatility model (6-month tactical outlook) is flashing a major shift in outlook. 📊

Jan 2026 (left): Clear signals for below-normal $SPX returns.

Today (right): The mean has shifted higher, but the quartile range (uncertainty) has more than doubled.

The core issue? Still liquidity. We’re seeing a further tightening of the screws:

A strong $USD confirms structural concerns.

Rising oil prices are putting intense pressure on rates markets.

But there is good news...

Global shock meets fragile markets. ⚠️

At the start of 2026, I warned about low volatility paired with high market fragility. That fragility has officially been exposed.

The question isn't how we got here, it’s what happens next. 🧵

Here's the link to your free chart pack:

www.edinburghfinancialanalytics.com/sign_up

9/
Good luck in the markets.

To keep up with this analysis and access our proprietary models, sign up for the free EFA Chart Pack.

Link in the reply below! 👇

#USTreasuries #BondMarket #MacroInvesting #FixedIncome #InvestingStrategy

8/
The Bottom Line:

At 18, volatility is elevated but hasn't signaled a breakout yet. Bonds remain a valid diversifier for now.
But if we push toward 27? That's a regime shift. Time to get out of the way.