The internet mostly. Mid 1990s to GFC

Honestly this debate is super important and relevant to AI imho. First tech revolution’s impact on official Econ numbers has been relatively modest. Most people would be surprised I imagine

All I have to say that in my job I absolutely have to know both my code and the data. What ever obscure edge case will come up in our data discussions with the product teams

Ed data in particular. Everyone cites NAEP stats even if they don’t know what NAEP, and that all depends on painstakingly collected gov. survey data

Very few people realize how devastating this was and how many things depend on gov survey data

Just don’t see it matching the (more extreme) hype. Not even a failing of the tech itself but the ways it’s being hyped. People are just obsessed with creating more reports, writing more code, etc. without thinking how much that translates into real insight/productivity gains

Using Claude at work. I find it helpful. But the more I use it, the more convinced I that the whole world had gone crazy

In a another world, we would be using AI to do better analyses instead of just doing more

My biggest gripe with agentic work is that I've become a reviewer. Know what work task I like least? The task I find most boring? It's reading & reviewing. And now that's the whole game. That's left me bored & disinterested, & maybe even ready to move on from some areas in general. #rstats #databs

Guy who’s not worried about the fertility crisis because AI will take all our jobs anyway

Yes, definitely non-zero, but doubt it will be mindblowing within near term (~5 years)

At some point, for #1 to hold, we would expect a clear inflection point in BLS nonfarm productivity

My hot take is that just like motion, we feel things in the first and second derivatives

I also believe anti-AI boosterism != anti-AI

Children in Juárez, Mexico, watched a live broadcast of the launch of NASA's Artemis II mission. JOSE LUIS GONZALEZ/REUTERS

call me a liberal nationalist but I feel proud to export an American culture of space exploration, multicultural immigrant cuisine, the Black American music tradition, football basketball baseball, NY Jewish comedy, land grant universities, and social libertarianism

Statistics = Algebra + Random bullshit

Funny that during voir dire at my last jury duty assignment a software programmer told the lawyer he was excited to be on the jury because he thought law was logical *unlike* software engineering

Just tried this with opus 4.6 and it gives standard answer before mention post-apocalyptic scenario at end, but claiming that scenario would make the car even more valuable

My new cope is we’ll keep seeing insanely impressive results from LLMs but it won’t move any macro indicators by much

The final straw that me to quit X was hiding replies. Us reply guys are people too

Doom scrolling for mythos posts but west coast accounts must be just getting up

BREAKING: Pope Leo XIV declares the Iran War is “unjust” and “is not resolving anything.”

After suggesting Trump is committing war crimes by targeting civilian infrastructure, he called on Americans to contact Congress to help end the war.

Claude’s taking us to the moon and back yet haters on this app are still calling it a stochastic parrot 🦜

Also depends if you’re more interested in the prediction of the outcome or the relationship between the outcome and the predictors

Sorry for being pedantic here, but the modern evangelical right is just one part of US protestanism

My CEO just announced we’re an AI first company 👀

Fear of losing your job is stupid?

I shouldn’t have “defensive”

Maybe it’s just my feed but I see more Ai than basketball posts. But anyway you can be more open to the reasons why people may be acting stupidly. Fear of new tech is not exactly a new phenomenon

Like why do you care if people don’t think AI on Bluesky?