STRONG cold front moving thru-upper 60s to low 70s & dewpoints 50s and 60s ahead of it. As well as severe storms-additional storm development (small hail possible) behind front with temps dropping by 20-30°-Headed for below freezing temps tonight-cover any plants if you started any early gardening!
Enhanced Risk of Severe for Monday- no matter which model you look at, all are looking pretty set that we will have severe storms, tornadoes (some strong) and large hail in the upper Midwest- particularly parts of MN- even MSP potentially. Stay tuned to updated forecasts.
An unusual severe weather focus area for today up North! (1st two images including tornado threat also). For tomorrow- things have potential to be even bigger for our area (next two images showing tornado threat as well).
Happy Easter everyone!
-Hank and Birdie
Spring has sprung!
Talking shop…
If you can scoot home from work a bit early today- you may want to. We may have another round of snow after 3pm thru about 12am- just enough to make the roads tricky for the evening commute. Could be 1-2” or so. Latest trends are showing a bit less snow than they were yesterday.
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It’s gonna get real out there.
Deploying the National Guard for a storm doesn’t happen every day!
Remember all- as of 8pm Friday- I declare that this is Science- not fact. The usual issues like a dry slot, warm air aloft, mixing, sharp cutoffs could be issues. Stay safe out there. Don't focus on the inches, focus on the impacts. Models are still variable-this is subject to change.
I remain skeptical at all of the latest model trends-but model agreements cannot be denied. IF this heavier core of snow moves through, it may be a really rough start to the week. A solid 6-12"+ is looking increasingly likely for MSP (60% chance)-possibly more for a narrow area (TBD on that area).
🚨 ⚠️ It is WINDY now as of 3pm. But this isn’t even the worst of it. Should get worse after 11pm. We could see tree damage and power outages as well as some rain/mix-even thunder- followed by a little snow into AM. Then- for the weekend- Winter Storm Watch. The odds of at least 6” are going up!
Let’s talk about it…
3rd Winter inbound. This is one model solution, but in addition to a couple of rain/snow/mix and even storm chances thru the next 48hrs-we have to closely watch the track of a larger weekend system, which the models have been playing a bit of back and forth with. Someone will get a lot of snow. TBD
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Some snow/mix overnight tonight into early Tuesday-then some more activity TUE PM into WED which could give us 1-3” of snow. March looks to get active. Also eyeing down a bigger system for the weekend (potentially), which is far from locked in on timing/totals/track. TBD on that.
Don’t forget. We set our clocks ahead 1 hour before bed tonight-or if you’re a night owl-the official time to do it is 2am Sunday. Which means our sunsets will have gone from just before 6pm to just after 7pm in about a weeks time. Only downside is that it will temporarily be darker in the mornings.
Things are changing quickly.
To give myself a bit of credit- I don’t think anyone on earth- not even the models really nailed this system. Look at how narrow that band is! And how abrupt the gradients! People think forecasting is easy. But it’s really not.
Really coming down out there!
Yes. I was wrong today. It does happen once in a while. Not often. But once in a while.
Alberta Clipper on deck. There is still some uncertainty with where the heaviest band sets up. High-res data has the core running through the I-94 corridor into the Metro, and some other data still has it a bit South. HRRR Loop here.
5pm- this is the HRRR Model- Earlier- my color legend that I selected was the wrong one, but this still illustrates the potential for the core of snow over us. Euro is slightly South, and GFS is slightly South, but all of the High-Res stuff suggests the heaviest is over the Metro. What will prevail?
Is this what the NWS office is like on days like today? 😂😎💪🏻
This is NOT my specific forecast, but this is what the HRRR model is suggesting. Yes- the legend is set up at a higher bracket based on the color conversion, but this would put the Metro in the 6-8" (Not 6-12") category. Either way, I think a safe play for the Metro is currently 3-6"- but let's see!
So some of you recall I was talking about launching a Roku and streaming channel and such for all streaming channels. It’s already been paid for but I’ve been struggling to line up the content!!…. But I’m thinking of a Podcast style setup of brief weather chats featuring my sidekick Hank.
The Saturday system is trending a bit further North on most models, which means MSP could be in the heavier core of snow. On the low end, 1-3" seems likely, but on the high end of the forecast range, some could be 4-8" territory-but MY current thoughts (9:45am) for the metro are 3-6"- stay tuned!
The Groundhog was clearly on to something.
This is a robust goal to say the least- BUT with some dynamic cooling and cooler air wrapping in- it may be enough for some surprises. With melting/compaction- we likely won’t measure these amounts on pavement but don’t be surprised if totals come in higher than current forecasts for MSP.
