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Wales Election 2026 - New voting system: your questions answered - BBC Sounds Cardiff University's Dr Jac Larner answers queries about the new Senedd voting system

Excellent Senedd electoral system explainer from @jaclarner.bsky.social in this interview: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Elections 2026: London There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

Sam @samfr.bsky.social sticks his neck out further than I’ve done on predicting local elections but force me to say and I’d agree with nearly all of these open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/e...

SP26: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-16 (+ South Region) #16: Angus North and Mearns #15: Dumfriesshire #14: Aberdeenshire West #13: Moray #12: Galloway and West Dumfries #11: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross Plus South Scotland Region

Lunchtime read: Ballot Box Battlegrounds 11-16 (+ South Region)

A look at 6 marginal constituencies: Angus North and Mearns; Dumfriesshire; Aberdeenshire West; Moray; Galloway and West Dumfries; and Caithness Sutherland and Ross. Plus, the South Scotland region.

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 57 SNP, 5 Conservative, 3 Labour, 6 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 1 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 8 Conservative, 15 Labour, 6 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 17 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 13.1 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 13, Conservative 8, Labour 36, Lib Dem 3, Green 2, Reform UK 11. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 12 below 5, 19 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 7 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Lib Dem, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Reform UK, Highlands and Islands Lib Dem, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Labour, West Reform UK.

More In Common 24 Mar - 10 Apr seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 57 (-4 / -6); 38
Lab ~ 18 (+1 / -3); 23
RUK ~ 18 (+2 / +18); 22
Con ~ 13 (+2 / -18); 16
LD ~ 12 (-2 / +8); 16
Grn ~ 11 (+1 / +1); 14

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

More in Common continue to be the outlier in terms of SNP support (much lower than any others), and the best for the Lib Dems. They're the only firm to have Lib Dems ahead of Greens (albeit within margin of error), though this is also the best share Greens have had with otherwise low-Green pollster

Elections 2026: The Five Battlegrounds There are local elections in the UK every May, and every year I do a preview.

New post:

"Elections 2026: The Five Battlegrounds"

With national politics fragmenting I've sorted all councils up for election outside London into five groups to help explain how things are evolving.

Incl predictions for all 104 councils.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/elections-...

Yeah, you can’t do local election projections like this. I may end up being wrong, but it won’t be for stupid reasons like ignoring the existence of a localist political party that has won three by-elections since 2023 and has a plausible mayoral candidate.

Labour will remain in control of 19 boroughs. If that happened, the London Labour party would drink the city dry celebrating.

Reform UK's voter base looks strikingly like Boris Johnson's in 2019. I had a look what that means for British politics in 2026: www.economist.com/britain/2026...

ITV/More in Common have a poll Birmingham City Council.

But projecting council seats across Birmingham on universal swing is a method certain to get it wrong: (eg for Reform, Greens + Independents).

Eg: Independents 1 seat for 11% (assuming even 11% everywhere)

www.itv.com/news/central...

Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March – 8th of April 2026 Scepticism about fancy MRP polling aside and just using their vote share figures, the SNP are within touching distance of a majority whilst the Conservatives are near-death.

Poll Analysis: YouGov MRP 23rd of March - 8th of April 2026 (finally caught up!)

Holyrood Seats Projection:
SNP ~ 64
Reform ~ 20
Labour ~ 15
Green ~ 13
Lib Dem ~ 10
Conservative ~ 7

Note: These figures differ substantially from YouGov's own, and I remain slightly funny on MRPs generally

More in Common's April MRP Our latest MRP projects that, if a General Election were held today, Reform UK could be the largest party, just one seat short of a majority. Meanwhile the Green Party could break through, quadrupling...

More in Common's April MRP

While our first Holyrood MRP shows the SNP holding their ground in seats, our vote share estimate projects a substantial fall in support, with the Tories on course for their worst Scottish vote ever

SNP: 32% (-8 from 2021)
Ref: 19% (+19)
Lab: 15% (-3)
Grn: 13% (+5)
LD: 10% (+5)
Con: 8% (-15)

YouGov's first MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP are on course for a small majority

SNP: 67 (+3 from 2021)
Ref: 20 (+20)
Lab: 15 (-7)
Grn: 11 (+3)
LD: 9 (+5)
Con: 7 (-24)

yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

Scotland political snapshot, Spring 2026 As the Scottish parliamentary election campaign gets underway, just 27% of Scots believe the Scottish government is doing a good job

Scotland political snapshot, Spring 2026

Updated Scotland poll tracker, accounting for today's @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll.

SNP 2 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 23.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 63 (-1)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Ref: 16 (+16)
Grn: 13 (+5)
LD: 10 (+6)
Con: 9 (-22)

1/2

Extraordinary back story here…

Elections 2026: The Preview Part one

New post out:

"Elections 2026: The Preview"

The first part of an epic preview covering 5,000 seats across 136 councils in England; plus parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales.

(£/free trial)

open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/e...

Highest SNP constituency vote in my tracker since January 2024; note the number of non-SNP projected constituencies in the 0-5% band on the second map. Modelling caveats well in mind, statistically a tossup on whether this poll gives an SNP majority or not.

Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 1 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 2 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 11 Conservative, 12 Labour, 3 Lib Dem, 15 Green, 0 Alba, 15 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East Green, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.2 - a lower index means a more proportional result.

Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 10, Conservative 15, Labour 33, Lib Dem 4, Green 2, Reform UK 9. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 8 below 5, 5 between 5 and 10, 22 between 10 and 20, 38 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Labour, Edinburgh and Lothians East Labour, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Reform UK, Mid and Fife Labour, North East Reform UK, South Lib Dem, West Labour.

Ipsos 26-31 Mar seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:

SNP ~ 63 (+3 / nc); 43
Grn ~ 17 (+1 / +7); 21
RUK ~ 15 (+2 / +15); 20
Lab ~ 14 (-6 / -7); 18
Con ~ 12 (+2 / -19); 16
LD ~ 8 (-2 / +4); 11

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)

SNP extend their lead while Scottish Labour support slumps The SNP have extended their lead over Labour and Reform UK according to the latest Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor, taken in the first week of the Holyrood election campaigns (26-31 March) and conduc...

Read more on our website 👉 bit.ly/4viUyLk

NEW Scottish Political Monitor with STV News

🟡SNP remain ahead on Scottish Parliament voting intention, with 39% of the constituency vote share, +3 from Ipsos’ poll taken 19 – 25 February.

🔴Scottish Labour fall to 15%, (-5).

🔵Reform UK are at 15%, (-1).

The dangerous madness of Scotland’s coming election How SNP supporters can exploit a flawed voting system to guarantee a majority for independence

open.substack.com/pub/kellnerp...

… the latter doesn’t make that much difference this year as the results in 2023 and 2024 were similar enough to 2022 in most places, although there are 400-ish that were last contested in 2021 which was, unlike the others, a good Tory year.

Some of the complications I’d add to the model are a) treating London separately. While Reform has gained many by-elections from Labour in Rest of England, it’s been zero in London which is over a third of the seats; and b) amending the baseline from 2022 only to a blended average…

… but put it this way, I’d be amazed if Reform overshoots the projection, and rather less amazed if it falls a couple of hundred short and the Greens win a bit more than projected.

I always look forward to seeing what Steve’s model says even if I don’t always agree. It’s got the solid merits of producing a definite projection of something measurable, and being based on simple and relevant inputs. It sometimes says to me that I over complicate things…

Dave Hill On London: Politics, Places, People | Substack The politics, development and culture of the UK capital. Click to read Dave Hill On London: Politics, Places, People, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

Latest edition of On London Extra asks how high the Reform UK tide will rise in the capital on 7 May. Plus other elections intel and news of a related major project I'm working on with
@lewisbaston.bsky.social. Available from my personal Substack: davehillonlondon.substack.com.

Consumer confidence March 2026: Personal finance outlook at a 28-month low Consumer confidence declined in March 2026.

Consumer confidence March 2026: Personal finance outlook at a 28-month low