All our reports clearly show the weighting steps and the impact they have. This is from last months report which can be found on our website. redcresearch.com/news-and-thi... The current months report can be downloaded on the @businesspost.bsky.social website now, and on ours later in the week.
Why would this overestimate future intentions? You clearly don’t understand past vote weighting. All it does is look at claimed past vote and weight to the actual past vote at the last election. This weight has very small impact on future vote intention.
Latest @redcresearch.bsky.social for the @businesspost.bsky.social results see no St Patrick’s day bounce for government parties, as cost of living concerns increase.
Latest RED C @businesspost poll sees FF fall again, as SF & Soc. Dems make gains.
Sinn Féin 24% +2
Fine Gael 18% +1
Fianna Fáil 15% -3
Independent 13% -1
Soc. Dems 10% +2
Labour 5% +1
Aontú 5% -1
Ind. Ireland 4% =
PBP-Solidarity 3% =
Green Party 2% -1
Net: Other 1%
@businesspost.bsky.social our final presidential poll for @businesspost.bsky.social will be released tonight at 8pm.
Well that this weekends poll fieldwork messed up 😂
UK well on its way to follow the US to loony politics after those local election results.
Oh David. From someone who loves polling, that is a very strange comment. Understanding the publics political leanings and trends in support for parties over the longer term is always useful. I’m sure you have used these trends in the past to understand voter sentiment between elections.
Hers is my article on those gains for SF. Look great, but also very similar to the gains seen post the 2020 election. Can they translate this into real votes at an election?
Latest @businesspost.bsky.social poll out today sees SF extend their lead in first preference vote to 4% ahead of other parties.
Latest @businessposthq poll sees signs of “buyers remorse” as FF loses share, and opposition parties make small gains. businesspost.ie/api/oc-post/?u…
So wrong Anton
RED C are very proud of how close our final @businessposthq pre election poll was, matching our success at the last GE in 2020. With an average error of just 0.8%, we predicted Fianna Fail as the largest party & that they would be most transfer friendly. redcresearch.com/red-c-accuracy…
@REDCResearch & @businessposthq last poll vs. exit poll. Average error of just 0.9%. Plenty of votes still to be counted. But suggests very accurate polling from all the Irish polling industry. Putting to bed the view that polls are always wrong AND that online polls don’t work!
@businesspost poll
27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov)
Fianna Fáil 21% (=)
Fine Gael 20% (-2%)
Sinn Fein 20% (+2%)
Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%)
Soc Dems 6% (=)
Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%)
Green 4% (=)
Labour 4% (+1%)
Aontú 4% (-1%)
PBP-Solidarity 2% (=)
Others 1% (=)
Moe +\- 3%
FW 20th-26th
Is it just me or is the @irishtimes.bsky.social poll only adding up to at best 98% with other parties. Understand this can happen due to rounding, but unusual to be 2% off the total.
Here’s one for those wanting to know how their policy positions compare with the parties
www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates
Great if you want help trying to decide who to vote for
Was there a “moment” of the week? 😂
Great book
Anyone else think Mary Lou just seems a little out of sorts tonight? Not her usual assured self, and appears caught slightly off guard each time she is asked a question. #ge24 #upfront
Probably “right”
A lot more time for larger parties in this 10 party debate as expected and probably tight. Yet have to feel sorry for some of the smaller parties. Think Joan Collins has had about 20 seconds speaking time so far.
Can I have a yes or a no - will be a constant refrain me thinks #GE24 #Leadersdebate
Not sure we are going to see much change tbh. Baked in already maybe? SF will do better ham at locals, but that already in the numbers. Big question is who of FF or FG gets more seats.
To be clear, he won—I've seen zero evidence suggesting fraud. My point is that a 128,000-vote swing in 3 states would have led to a Harris administration. We remain a closely divided nation where informed voters voted for Harris and uninformed voters are about to be wildly surprised at what happens.
go.bsky.app/6jV8qvJ This starter pack of Irish Media Personalities & Outlets has reached 100. These are suggestions not endorsements.
