RFK Jr. is a quick study of Trump's policymaking playbook:
Step 1: break the law
Step 2: lose in court
Step 3: change the rules *just enough* to sidestep future legal challenges
and, as always...
Step 4: profit
www.statnews.com/2026/04/09/n...
nearly all of these MAHA influencers are being compensated by tobacco companies, and very few disclose it. in many cases, they are marketing to children. nicotine pouches harm child brain development.
Missouri keeps electing Trump, Hawley & a GOP supermajority - yet voters passed Medicaid expansion, abortion rights, paid leave & marijuana legalization. All through direct democracy. New research on why. Find us at #MPSA2026, Thu April 23, 3:20 PM! #DirectDemocracy #Federalism #MissouriPolitics
the penne opticon
MPSA folks, come join us for The Forum's happy hour, this Thursday at the Adamus Lounge!
MPSA folks! **Free food and drinks** at our APLS roundtable (3:20 CDT) & panel. Both in Monroe.
Come by and bring guests!!
Hear from @mirandayaver.bsky.social @robertbrehm.bsky.social @klunztrujillo.bsky.social @melissabaker.bsky.social, Ingrid Haas, Kathryn Haglin, Ashley Fox, and more!
Abstract We assess the impact of former President Joe Biden’s unprecedented decision to exit the 2024 Presidential race 2 months before election day by analyzing a naturally-occurring experiment surrounding the incumbent President’s decision to exit the 2024 race, a period in which we fielded the second wave (NWave 2 = 831) of a nationally-representative panel study (NWave 1 = 1400), with random invitation assignment (from the original response pool) throughout Wave 2. Pre-registered difference-in-difference (DID) analyses reveal no evidence of significant turnout or down-ballot effects across either the US adult population or partisan subgroups. However, post hoc tests reveal substantial gains in excitement about the 2024 campaign across both the general population and (especially) among self-identified Democrats after President Biden’s decision to drop out. Elevated excitement coincided with (a) increased belief in core democratic principles and (b) increased donation to Democrats up and down the ballot.
Did Biden’s 2024 exit reshape electoral outcomes? @mattmotta.bsky.social, Trujillo, @stecula.bsky.social, Callaghan, @ophiryotam.bsky.social & @drorwalter.bsky.social examine panel data, finding no turnout effects but higher excitement and Democratic engagement. Read more: buff.ly/3CKEZqC
#polsky
Amazon, which saved $4B in taxes under Trump's Big Ugly Bill, has cut 30,000 jobs since last October.
Verizon, which saved $2B, plans to cut 15,000 jobs this year.
Meta, which saved $3B, plans to lay off 20% or more of its workforce.
Trickle-down economics is a cruel joke.
Perplexed by the increased visibility of anti-vaccine beliefs in the US? New research on the asymmetry of vaccine activism - conspiratorial worldviews, not partisan identity, drive the gap. Come find us at the @asnpls.bsky.social Research Talks, #MPSA2026, Fri April 24, 1:30 PM! #VaccinePolicy #APLS
open.substack.com/pub/pauloffi...
As Secretary of Health and Human Services, RFK Jr. is now suppressing studies that don't support his anti-vaccine stance.
they are doing it at NSF too
Mark Takano unveils a"Doctor Jesus" sign. RFK Jr. shuts his eyes in pain, he can't even look:
Do you share their concerns about Trump's mental health?
RFK Jr.: "No. There hasn't been a President who is more mentally capable."
"You are choosing your loyalty to Trump over the Constitution."
With: @klunztrujillo.bsky.social @stecula.bsky.social @thcallaghan.bsky.social @drorwalter.bsky.social @ophiryotam.bsky.social (sorry that I couldn't fit you all in the first post!).
Study abstract
Table documenting significant diff-in-diff estimates of increased enthusiasm for Dems, post drop-out.
Reg. Discontinuity analysis showing increased contributions to Dems up/down ballot post dropout.
NEW at POST: In a naturally-occurring experiment, we document an electoral "vibe shift" surrounding Biden's decision to drop out of the '24 election, which translated into increased donations up/down ballot and increased faith in democratic institutions.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Clearly, officials at the FAA have never watched Nathan Fielder's "The Rehearsal," and I find that deeply concerning.
For folks headed to MPSA next week, the Association for Politics and the Life Sciences is hosting an open conference within a conference! Friday afternoon in Monroe, free food & drinks, & the events are a typical research panel (1:15) & a roundtable (3:20) on doing research during -these times-.
Rep. Chu brings up the fact that FEMA is approving disaster requests from Republican states but not Democratic states.
She asks Vought about it, and he basically says it's not a problem. "No one has looked harder at FEMA funding than us."
It's Jesu -- I mean "Red Cross doctor" right?
Lessons that all Americans should contemplate about the road ahead for Hungary and for us
POTUS having a normal one -- attacking the Pope for being "WEAK on crime"
It really feels like he's sundowning in plain sight...
ORBÁN CONCEDED
Steve Sack, Minneapolis Star Tribune
I would've said "far-right autocrat" over "MAGA ally" in the headline, although I suppose the two are synonymous these days...
www.nbcnews.com/world/hungar...
Could we not just load the cargo on a trebuchet? Fling it over? Just a thought.
photo of the dish towel used as a white flag at Appomattox
On this day, 1865: the last Confederate flag, a white dish towel.
Rick Scott knows Roosevelt and Truman were... Democrats... right....?
losing contact with the earth for 40 minutes sounds nice
🚨NEW DISINFO PAPER🚨 TLDR; disinformation circulates as narratives, not false facts. This paper took five years (!!!) and a rotating cast of collaborators and GRAs. Our case studies include the pee tape, and we have an entire appendix justifying that. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
This is not lets-propose-this-and-see-what-Congress-says. Their plan is more like USAID: eliminate before Congress can weigh in.
