Great analysis from @hannahbunting.bsky.social on the Gorton and Denton by-election @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social

Late deciders, higher turnout: what the Gorton and Denton byelection taught us about voters High numbers of undecideds may partially explain the late swing to the Greens.

New piece from w/ @hannahbunting.bsky.social & @jess-smith.bsky.social on the Gorton & Denton byelection, and what it might tell us about British politics.

We cover turnout, late-deciding voters, gender gaps & the continuing fragmentation of the party system 🧵

theconversation.com/late-decider...

Check out the post below by @philipjcowley.bsky.social, who’s written a great summary of ongoing work by me, @hannahbunting.bsky.social, @cerifowler.bsky.social, @jess-smith.bsky.social, and @annasanders.bsky.social on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses👇

Record-breaking council by-election trends means candidates more likely to win with less voter support, study warns The growing trend of record-breaking council by-election results will mean more close contests and more candidates winning with little voter support, a new report warns. Last year saw an increasing nu...

New analysis from the University of Exeter’s Elections Centre by @hannahbunting.bsky.social and Michael Thrasher shows dramatic shifts in local council by-elections, with more parties than ever contesting seats and far fewer votes required to win @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social

Resources

The Local Elections Handbook 2025 is now available on the Elections Centre website: electionscentre.uk/resources/
It details the definitive record of all the councillor elections that took place in May 2025. Plus, it marks the 40th edition of local elections handbooks! @hannahbunting.bsky.social

🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses

Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.

Rumours about replacing Keir Starmer overlook several important polling details Voters are undecided and no party is polling particularly well. All is not well for the UK prime minister – but talk of his imminent removal may be premature.

"A big set of losses will be interpreted as a sign Starmer’s government is failing, even though the elections are likely to be low-turnout contests that actually represent the public’s continued diversity of opinions" - @hannahbunting.bsky.social on #Labour

theconversation.com/rumours-abou...

🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?

Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social

Kicked off my first week at
@lsegovernment.bsky.social with the fantastic @psaepop.bsky.social #EPOP2025 conference in Exeter. Grateful for the warm welcome, great academic exchange and stunning English nature 🌿. Colleagues in or passing through London, please reach out, I’d be glad to connect!

On Friday, I was fortunate enough to promote our book, Beyond Woke and Anti-Woke, at a plenary session of the #EPOP2025 conference. Thanks to all who came and co-panellists Helen Berry, @evemworth.bsky.social and @hannahbunting.bsky.social

Conference delegates enjoying a dinner

A drinks reception outside a beautiful historic building

#EPOP2025 is all wrapped up! Fantastic conference rounded off with dinner at Reed Hall @hannahbunting.bsky.social @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social @psaepop.bsky.social A huge thanks to all of our presenters, panellists, delegates and colleagues who supported to make it such a success.

On my way to #EPOP2025, my favourite recurring conference, with @prossertj.bsky.social. This year I have a welcome problem - practically every panel has cool people I know doing great work, and there aren’t six of me to attend them all!

We've managed to have lunch outside every day and shortly heading into final plenary sessions before the gala dinner this evening #EPOP20205 - Reed Hall is looking lovely already!

Thank you! I’m so glad everyone’s having a good time, the papers have been excellent as always ☺️

A fascinating plenary session at #EPOP2025 yesterday, thanks to Professor Helen Berry and Dr Eve Worth from @uniofexeterhass.bsky.social and Professor Thomas Prosser from Cardiff University, chaired by @hannahbunting.bsky.social @pspolisci.bsky.social @psaepop.bsky.social

The causes of perceived government trustworthiness DANIEL DEVINE, VIKTOR VALGARÐSSON, WILL JENNINGS, GERRY STOKER, HANNAH BUNTING

🌅📙 64.3

#GovernmentTrust

These authors (🧵⬇️) use experiments in 🇬🇧🇭🇷🇪🇸🇦🇷 & 🇫🇷 to determine what has the most influence on citizen's trust. They also looked at how different trust-related qualities interact and how people's own traits change the effects.

🔗 buff.ly/H5wjxBl

Only one more week to buy your ticket for EPOP 2025!

EPOP 2025 | Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy, and Anthropology | University of Exeter

The programme and registration are all available on the conference website: spspa.exeter.ac.uk/events/epop2...

🚨 ICYMI: EPOP 2025 registration open, and draft programme released! 🚨

Join us in Exeter 4-6th September on our Streatham campus for some stellar papers. Early bird rates open until 4th August, registration closes 28th August.

Those staying in Holland Hall will wake up to this view!

Thanks Martin! I was quite taken aback when I generated them

One of the very interesting charts in this excellent piece by @hannahbunting.bsky.social on measuring the extent of electoral fragmentation

Thanks Tim! I certainly feel for anyone who has a book or PhD thesis on the go...

UK local elections delivered record-breaking fragmentation of the vote The Conservatives and Labour together barely scraped a quarter of seats – but Reform’s victory came on a historically low vote share.

Great stuff (and great graphs) by @hannahbunting.bsky.social Got to say that, at this rate and although (like Hannah) we've banged on about fragmentation for yonks, Paul Webb and I are going to have to do a shedload of work to update next edition of "The Modern British Party System".

UK local elections delivered record-breaking fragmentation of the vote The Conservatives and Labour together barely scraped a quarter of seats – but Reform’s victory came on a historically low vote share.

The Conservatives and Labour together barely scraped a quarter of seats – but Reform’s victory came on a historically low vote share.

Similar in Exeter. A handful of Reform posts in front gardens, but I haven’t seen anything else.

🚨 Call for papers deadline extended! You can now submit to the below form until this Sunday 4th May.

We thought many of you have had or will be having late nights this week watching democracy unfold, so we decided to give you a few more days. Looking forward to seeing you in Exeter this September!

BJPolS abstract discussing theoretical fluctuations and empirical studies in political trust, mentioning data collection from 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, and highlighting differences in trust levels at institutions, with a focus on democratic declines.

From February 2025 -

A Crisis of Political Trust? Global Trends in Institutional Trust from 1958 to 2019 - cup.org/4gCcLuT

- @viktorv.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social, Gerry Stoker, @hannahbunting.bsky.social,
@danjdevine.bsky.social, @lawrencemckay.bsky.social & Andrew Klassen

#OpenAccess

Elections, Public Opinion and Parties Specialist Group Annual Conference 2025 | The Political Studies Association (PSA) EPOP’s 2025 annual conference will be hosted by the Department of Social and Political Sciences, Philosophy and Anthropology at the University of Exeter on 4-6 September. The call for papers is now…

*Call for Papers* Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) Annual Conference, 4 - 6 Sept at Dept of Social and #Political Sciences, #Philosophy & #Anthropology @exeter.ac.uk. Hosted by PSA EPOP specialist group @psaepop.bsky.social. Details at

UKICE Lunch Hour: What do the local elections reveal about British politics? - UK in a changing Europe Join our panel as they analyse the results of the May local elections, reflecting on what they reveal about British politics.

🚨Local elections are coming 🚨

💬 Sign up to our webinar to analyse the results with UKICE’s polling guru Sir John Curtice, @anandmenon.bsky.social @sophiestowers.bsky.social, Uni of Exeter’s @hannahbunting.bsky.social & LSE’s Tony Travers 👇

Doing cool research on elections, public opinion and/or parties? Don't forget to submit your abstract for EPOP 2025 before the end of April. Link to the form here: forms.office.com/e/4wBNMq4qwi

Come share your work with an awesome group of scholars! Any questions, contact elections@exeter.ac.uk 😊