Are the Greens taking Reform votes? The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

Ben Walker: There is growing evidence the Greens are taking Reform votes www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-2)
LAB: 21% (-)
CON: 17% (+1)
GRN: 15% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 18 - 20 Mar
Chgs. w/ 06 Mar
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 4pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 23% (-2)
LAB: 19% (+2)
GRN: 18% (-1)
CON: 17% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-1)

via @YouGov, 22 - 23 Mar
Chgs. w/ 16 Mar
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 28% (-2)
CON: 21% (+2)
LAB: 20% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+2)
LDEM: 12% (-1)

via @Moreincommon_, 13 - 16 Mar
Chgs. w/ 09 Mar
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 25% (+2)
GRN: 19% (-)
CON: 17% (-2)
LAB: 17% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)

via @YouGov, 15 - 16 Mar
Chgs. w/ 10 Mar
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 9pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-3)
CON: 18% (-1)
LAB: 17% (-)
GRN: 17% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-)

via @TechneUK, 10 - 12 Mar
Chgs. w/ 12 Feb
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (+1)
LAB: 20% (-1)
CON: 18% (-2)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 13% (+3)

via @focaldataHQ, 06 - 10 Mar
Chgs. w/ 19 Jan
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 4pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 23% (-)
CON: 19% (+3)
GRN: 19% (-2)
LAB: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 14% (-)

via @YouGov, 09 - 10 Mar
Chgs. w/ 02 Mar
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-2)
CON: 20% (-)
LAB: 20% (-2)
GRN: 14% (+5)
LDEM: 12% (+1)

via @JLPartnersPolls, 02 - 05 Mar
Chgs. w/ 01 Dec
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 8pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 29% (-2)
LAB: 21% (+2)
CON: 18% (-2)
GRN: 12% (-)
LDEM: 10% (-2)

via @Survation, 05 Mar
Chgs. w/ 29 Jan
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 8pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 29% (-1)
LAB: 21% (+3)
CON: 16% (-2)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 04 - 06 Mar
Chgs. w/ 27 Feb
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 7pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (-5)
LAB: 20% (-)
CON: 18% (+1)
GRN: 14% (+1)
LDEM: 12% (+1)

via @BMGResearch, 04 - 05 Mar
Chgs. w/ 29 Jan
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 27% (+1)
GRN: 21% (+3)
CON: 17% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-)
LDEM: 10% (-2)

via @FindoutnowUK, 04 - 06 Mar
Chgs. w/ 25 Feb
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 12pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 30% (-1)
CON: 18% (+2)
LAB: 18% (-5)
GRN: 13% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+2)

via @OpiniumResearch, 25 - 27 Feb
Chgs. w/ 06 Feb
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 2pts, Grns in second
Westminster voting intention

REF: 23% (-1)
GRN: 21% (+4)
CON: 16% (-2)
LAB: 16% (-2)
LDEM: 14% (-)

via @YouGov, 01 - 02 Mar
Chgs. w/ 22 Feb

👇 Read this
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

At day 586 in Number 10, Keir Starmer ranks rock bottom in recent history.

Starmer: -45
Brown: -28
Sunak: -27
May: -17
Thatcher: -15
Cameron: -11
Johnson: -5
Major: +10
Blair: +37

Truss: N/A

britainelects.substack.com/p/how-popula...

Gorton and Denton by-election result:

GRN: 40.7% (+27.5)
REF: 28.7% (+14.7)
LAB: 25.4% (-25.3)
CON: 1.9% (-6.0)
LDEM: 1.8% (-2.1)

Green GAIN from Labour.

Green GAIN Gorton and Denton from Labour.

Reform activists hearing Matt Goodwin has all but conceded defeat to the Greens.

Gorton and Denton turnout:
47.6% (+0.8)
36,903 votes cast

Andrew’s Previews | Substack "All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD

Shirley (Southampton) council by-election result:

LDEM: 27.4% (-11.8)
LAB: 26.8% (+2.8)
REF: 19.1% (+19.1)
GRN: 15.1% (+7.6)
CON: 8.1% (-16.1)
IND: 3.4% (-0.2)

+/- 2024

Estimated turnout: ~34% (+4)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Previewing the Gorton and Denton by-election and the Southampton local by-election of 26th February 2026 "All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order"

Andrew's Previews of...

Gorton and Denton, a Labour defence;
& Shirley (Southampton), a Lib Dem defence!

andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing...

BritainElects - Twitch The UK's leading poll aggregator, now on Twitch!

Stand by for the BRITAIN ELECTS WITH BEN WALKER election night live stream, coming to you... in the next hour.

Or less than that.

It'll be up when it's up.

www.youtube.com/@britainelects
www.twitch.tv/britainelects
x.com/britainelects

How Gorton and Denton could vote if the tactical voting option is emphatically perceived by voters to be Green or Labour

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

The Britain Predicts final forecast for Gorton and Denton, complete with ranges:

GRN: 31% (25-38)
REF: 30% (30-33)
LAB: 29% (22-34)

Drilldown, including what built it:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 28% (-)
LAB: 22% (-)
CON: 20% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (+3)
GRN: 11% (-1)

via @Moreincommon_, 20 - 23 Feb
Chgs. w/ 13 Feb
britainelects.com

Britain Elects | Substack Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

📊 Ref lead of 6pts
Westminster voting intention

REF: 24% (-)
CON: 18% (-)
LAB: 18% (-1)
GRN: 17% (-)
LDEM: 14% (+1)

via @YouGov, 22 Feb
Chgs. w/ 15 Feb
britainelects.com

The Parliamentary Special edition of Andrew's Previews is brewing nicely. You will not want to miss it. Subscribe now at andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack "All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

✅ Conservative HOLD

Worth Valley (Bradford) council by-election result:

CON: 51.7% (-4.7)
REF: 26.1% (+26.1)
LAB: 12.1% (-19.6)
GRN: 7.0% (-1.0)
LDEM: 2.4% (-1.6)
IND: 0.8% (+0.8)

+/- 2024

Estimated turnout: ~32% (-6)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews

Andrew’s Previews | Andrew Teale | Substack "All the right votes, but not necessarily in the right order". Click to read Andrew’s Previews, by Andrew Teale, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

❗ Reform GAIN from Labour

Fletton and Woodston (Peterborough) council by-election result:

REF: 29.4% (+29.4)
GRN: 27.6% (+6.8)
CON: 21.8% (-15.0)
LAB: 16.8% (-20.6)
LDEM: 4.4% (-0.6)

+/- 2023, when seat was last up

Estimated turnout: ~25% (-)

andrewteale.me.uk/previews