The war in Iran creates political, technical & economic pressures on Europe's rearmament, deepening a window of vulnerability that could encourage further Russian aggression, warns @lscazzieri.bsky.social & @gspataf95.bsky.social.
➡️ ow.ly/IQqN50YGtpu

@lscazzieri.bsky.social and I wrote a short commentary for
@euiss.bsky.social assessing the damage of the US-Iran war for Europe - and suggesting a way to enhance the resilience of the continent's defence build-up. Read below:

Pentagon & NATO say arms to Ukraine via PURL will keep flowing. But a prolonged Middle East war could strain US capacity to fulfill orders - posing serious risks for Europe & Ukraine, warns @gspataf95.bsky.social in Libertatea.

Read the interview: www.libertatea.ro/stiri/giusep...

Great to see my @euiss.bsky.social piece on "Foreign Policy First Presidency" in the @eucouncilpress.bsky.social Think Tank Review, among many other great reads :)

Trump says Europeans should help secure the Strait of Hormuz. So far, they've refused European leaders are rejecting President Trump's demand they send military assets to the Middle East to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which is being obstructed by Iran.

Trump continues to speak of NATO as a separate entity rather than an alliance the US belongs to - "we helped NATO with Ukraine - now they need to help us."

@gspataf95.bsky.social speaks to @npr.org about Trump's call for Europeans to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.

www.npr.org/2026/03/17/n...

Thanks Kurt!

Trump says Europeans should help secure the Strait of Hormuz. So far, they've refused European leaders are rejecting President Trump's demand they send military assets to the Middle East to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which is being obstructed by Iran.

@gspataf95.bsky.social - good statement on US treating NATO as an external toolbox rather than an Alliance in which it is a member on @npr.org's Morning Edition and Brussels correspondent Teri Schultz.
www.npr.org/2026/03/17/n...

A pleasure to host the #COTRA Working Party at
@euiss.bsky.social HQ in Paris on Friday.

Thanks for the quote!

My latest thoughts on #EU-#NATO relations for @euiss.bsky.social :

Orphaned Tactics Oops we did it again

“The war with Iran is little more than the joint targeting process unleashed. The Frankenstein’s monster that is the operational level of war, unsatiated after eating strategy, is now feasting on policy”. @bafriedman.bsky.social

#China is often seen as an unstoppable economic power. But Beijing is also increasingly fragile. New Chaillot Paper by @aligarciaherrero.bsky.social & @ruehlig.bsky.social argues the EU has more leverage than it thinks - and should use it strategically ➡️ ow.ly/1p0650Yq7EC

Stacked bar chart titled "US Foreign Military Sales" showing annual major arms sales (in $ billions) by region from 2017 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 160 billion dollars. Each bar is divided by region: Europe (largest share in yellow), Indo-Pacific (light green), MENA (green), Americas (blue), Africa and Central Asia (smallest segments at the top). Europe and the Indo-Pacific account for the largest portions in most years. Source: Major Arms Sales (via FMS) Notification Tracker 2026

⚙️ In 2025, Europe remained a major buyer of US weapons, but purchases fell significantly from 2024, suggesting early signs of reduced reliance.

Individual EU countries, however, still top the rankings. Read more in @gspataf95.bsky.social's scrollytelling analysis: iss.europa.eu/publications...

#MSC was better than last year for Europe, but many now openly say that trust in🇺🇸 is down. We have entered the age of low trust - which doesn't mean open tensions all the time, but a different benchmark

🧵/ Our February European Political Monthly survey once again finds attitudes to the USA hitting new lows

Net favourability of the USA in...
🇩🇪 -56 (down 5 from Jan)
🇫🇷 -52 (down 18)
🇮🇹 -43 (down 5)
🇪🇸 -41 (down 4)
🇬🇧 -41 (down 7)
🇵🇱 -5 (new)

yougov.co.uk/internationa...

A good & reasonable speech by Colby, if light on detail of US posture changes & timeline. But quite something to give a speech in Seoul and not mention North Korea once, only to follow it up by giving a speech at NATO which omits any mention of Russia.
www.war.gov/News/Speeche...

I'm not going to the @munsecconf.bsky.social - but the 2026 #MSCreport is featuring @euiss.bsky.social CP "Low Trust: Navigating Transatlantic Relations under Trump 2.0" as part of its recommended reading list: securityconference.org/assets/02_Do...

Tariffs have been one of Trump's main instruments to reshape the global trade order. While the administration argues that tariffs are paid by foreign companies, 96% of the burden was absorbed by US citizens.

More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

Trump claims to have ended 8 wars in 2025.

Many of these US-brokered peace deals include economic components, such as access to minerals, making them tools to forge business ties & secure new resources.

More on the "Foreign Policy-First" President: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

Nearly 500 US military strikes in 12 months - more than under Biden in four years.

From 'America First' to 'Foreign Policy-First'?

📊 Our interactive analysis of US foreign policy under Trump, by @gspataf95.bsky.social: ow.ly/OeQv50Y8Gaf

The Foreign Policy-First President? Donald Trump’s second term has defied expectations of isolationism. This interactive publication uses data and visuals to map the main axes of US foreign policy under Trump 2.0: military intervention,...

For more interactive data, see here: www.iss.europa.eu/publications... @ec.europa.eu @eudiplomacy.bsky.social

📌 𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀
• Trump 2.0 is likely to remain interventionist
• Trump’s ‘peace agenda’ is now US policy
• Tariffs are here to stay…
• …but will troops stay? That remains less clear
• Defence-industrial relations will test the transatlantic partnership

🇪🇺 purchases of 🇺🇸 weapons are concentrated in a few areas - air defences, C3, and missiles.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 — 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗼𝘄
Despite threats of abandonment, the number of 🇺🇸 forces in Europe has not changed over the past year.
Also, 🇪🇺remain the main purchasers of US weapons, though purchases have fallen.

📦📉 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿
The main components of trade deals under Trump 2.0:
• Reduction of US tariffs in exchange for market access
• Cooperation on economic security
• Foreign commitments to “𝗕𝘂𝘆 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻”

🤝💼 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗲–𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘂𝘀
Trump claimed to have ended eight wars in 2025, but in many cases his role remains unclear or contested.
Peace deals signed under Trump 2.0 often include a strong business or economic components.

And the focus was not just the Western Hemisphere...

⚔️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁
In 2025, the US carried out 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝟰𝟬𝟬 𝗺𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲𝘀, a much higher rate than previous admins - including Trump 1.0.

The Foreign Policy-First President? Donald Trump’s second term has defied expectations of isolationism. This interactive publication uses data and visuals to map the main axes of US foreign policy under Trump 2.0: military intervention,...

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆-𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆

It was supposed to be America First — but #Trump 2.0 has been defined above all by foreign policy.
My latest @euiss.bsky.social data analysis: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

💡 @gspataf95.bsky.social opens the panel discussion with policy-makers and practitioners connecting the survey results to the EU's strategic priorities. 🧵