Which technologies are likely to make advances?
Which ones might develop so fast that they pose risks to humanity?
How quickly will new technologies to be deployed?

I'm looking for answers with @francoislafond.bsky.social @maxroser.bsky.social in our new program on forecasting technological change

J. Doyne Farmer, physicist: "I like doing things that people think are impossible" The scientist argues that we cannot predict the future, but we can create better economic models through physics.

"I like doing things that people think are impossible" - Doyne Farmer's interview in ARA now available to read (in Spanish and Catalan as well as English)
en.ara.cat/science-tech...

Book Talk: The Infinite Alphabet This event is co-organised by The TIDE Centre We all understand that knowledge shapes the fate of business and the growth of nations, but few of us are…

In our final #ComplexityEconomics seminar of the term on 11 March, we're delighted to welcome @cesifoti.bsky.social to talk about The Infinite Alphabet, exploring the many principles that govern how knowledge grows, moves and decays.
@tidecentre.bsky.social

www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-i...

Now available online: Liquidity Spirals - new working paper co-authored with Garbrand Wiesema @ecb.europa.eu and Esti Kemp (IMF) investigates how the (pecking) order in which institutions liquidate assets in response to shocks affects financial stability.

www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpw...

The economist trying to save the planet with his own crystal ball No one can predict the future... yet. Will Rogers-Coltman speaks to Professor Doyne Farmer about his lofty aims to build the world’s first super-simulator

The economist trying to save the planet with his own crystal ball: read @doynefarmer.bsky.social's interview in The Standard

#ComplexityEconomics #EnergyTransition @smithschool.ox.ac.uk @inetoxford.bsky.social

www.standard.co.uk/lifestyle/ec...

Miracle or Myth? The macroeconomic productivity gains from AI across… The presentation will focus on the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon in OECD and G20…

In our next #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 4 March @oecd-ocde.bsky.social's Peter Gal will be talking about the macroeconomic productivity gains from AI across the globe. Online and in person
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/mirac...

Podem predir el futur mitjançant les matemàtiques? Què ens diu la teoria del caos? Quins són els límits de la nostra capacitat de predir la complexitat? Parlarem amb Doyne Farmer, un dels pares de la teoria, i amb la matemàtica Eva Miranda @evamirandag.bsky.social
museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...

This Thursday I'll be at @museuciencies.cat discussing chaos theory, time and its implications with @evamirandag.bsky.social and @ricardsole.bsky.social. Looking forward to it!

museuciencies.cat/activitats/2...

New book by SFI Press: The Economy as an Evolving Complex System IV, a two-volume collection of contributions from leading scholars examining the unprecedented complexity of the global economy.

You can download PDF chapters for free, or purchase physical copies here: sfipress.org/books/eecs-iv

Economics has failed on the climate crisis. This complexity scientist has a plan to fix that Doyne Farmer says a super-simulator of the global economy would accelerate the transition to a green, clean world

Economics has failed the climate crisis: this complexity scientist has a mind-blowing plan

- @doynefarmer.bsky.social says a super-simulator of the global economy would accelerate the transition to a green, clean world

#climatecrisis
Interview by me
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Sara AlMahri @ifmcambridge.bsky.social is the next speaker in our @inet-complexity.bsky.social seminar series!

Join us on Wednesday 11th February @14:30 GMT in person or online, Register ➼ www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/from-...

Our first @inet-complexity.bsky.social seminar of the year is coming up, featuring a book talk from @maxkasy.bsky.social!
Don't forget to register to watch in person or online ➸ www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-m...
@oxfordecondept.bsky.social

Book Talk: The means of prediction - how AI really works (and who… As economist Maximilian Kasy shows in The Means of Prediction , artificial intelligence, far from being an unstoppable force, is irrevocably shaped by…

Here's the announcement you've been waiting for - our Complexity Economics seminar speakers for this term! We start on 4 Feb with @maxkasy.bsky.social @oxfordecondept.bsky.social discussing his new book The means of prediction: How AI really works (and who benefits)
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/the-m...

Highly recommended by all our team members who have attended in the past!

Complexity Economics Insights for the Seventh Carbon Budget This briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcases four research programmes from the University of Oxford’s…

You can read our briefing for the Environmental Audit Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget inquiry showcasing 4 research programmes from @inetoxford.bsky.social that could help inform decisions

@doynefarmer.bsky.social @emilienravigne.bsky.social @bapeterj.bsky.social
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/complex...

Mission analysis – how does the UK government model the transition to… How does government conduct analysis to meet its twin missions of Clean Power 2030 and Accelerating to Net Zero?

In our #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 3 December: How does government conduct analysis to meet its twin missions of Clean Power 2030 and Accelerating to #NetZero? Director of Analysis and Chief Economist at DESNZ Donna Leong will give her perspectives.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/missi...

Brad Carr Podcast Self-Improvement Podcast · Updated Weekly · Brad Carr interviews the world's best leaders. Previous guests include Navy SEALs, #1 New York Times bestselling authors, CEOs, and more. Listen anywhere y...

You can also listen at
Spotify:open.spotify.com/episode/49lm5GZDYlVny1Dy...
Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...

Doyne Farmer: Roulette, Chaos Theory, Global Economics, Oxford University YouTube video by Brad Carr

I had a chat with Brad Carr about how to bear roulette and predict the economy - you watch us talking at www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbdU...
#ComplexityEconomics #Complexity

Job vacancy for Post Doctoral Research Associate in Economics of Technological Change at Oxford. Deadline: 5 Jan 2026.

We’re recruiting a Postdoctoral Researcher to join a new Oxford Martin programme led by renowned innovation scholars: Prof @maxroser.bsky.social, Prof @doynefarmer.bsky.social & Dr @francoislafond.bsky.social.

Help shape global insights into how technologies evolve.

Link in thread ⬇️

We too are very excited about Karolina Bassa's new paper with Rama Cont on Dynamics of sovereign debt: credit risk and sustainability analysis
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/publications...

Cities for everyone In this talk, Rafael Prieto-Curiel will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone. Previously, Rafael worked on urban dynamics as part of…

In our next #ComplexityEconomics seminar on 12 Nov, Rafael Prieto-Curiel @csh.ac.at will explore the challenges of making cities work for everyone while facing dual challenges of managing both expansion and contraction at a time of rapid future population expansion
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/citie...

We're looking for a postdoc for our new project on forecasting technological change - more details below

Agent-based models move into the economic mainstream In the 1980s and ’90s, SFI played laboratory to a promising new method known as agent-based modeling. In ensuing decades, agent-based models (ABMs) proliferated across many fields, including economics...

What if one model could realistically predict the economy of an entire country? The entire world? A month-long working group, co-organized by SFI External Professor @doynefarmer.bsky.social, made the case that agent-based models may bring this vision to life:

How to improve LLM responses in domains we can’t score? Implicit signals from structured dialogue help LLM agents edit their own contexts, improving responses dramatically.

“Self-evolving expertise in complex non-verifiable subject domains: dialogue as implicit meta-RL”.

arxiv.org/pdf/2510.15772

Come work with us! We’re hiring a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Food System Transformations at the University of Oxford.

This role is part of an ambitious, interdisciplinary project exploring rapid food system transformations. More details here: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Uncovering utility functions from observational data The algorithm, Preference Extraction and Reward Learning (PEARL) is able to uncover a representation of the utility function that best rationalises…

Our #Complexity Economics Seminar series is back! We start next Wednesday 22 October with a talk from Cambridge University's @martagrzeskiewicz.bsky.social presenting an algorithm for uncovering a utility function based on observational consumption data.
www.inet.ox.ac.uk/events/uncov...

Quantitative agent-based models: a promising alternative for macroeconomics Abstract. Agent-based models (ABMs) are dynamic computer simulations that abandon utility maximization and instead assume that agents are boundedly rationa

I have a new paper out in @oxrepjournal.bsky.social explaining Agent-based models #ABMs and their advantages and disadvantages in comparison to standard models.

doi.org/10.1093/oxre...

This was great fun!

🚨 Fresh from ArXiv:
“Comparing Data Assimilation and Likelihood-Based Inference on Latent State Estimation in Agent-Based Models”
with @marcopangallo.bsky.social, @c0rrad0.bsky.social, & @gdfm.bsky.social
👉 arxiv.org/abs/2509.17625

A Quantitative Model of Sovereign Credit Risk and Debt Sustainability

Coming up on 1 October @wifo.bsky.social: Karolina Bassa will present on the impact of fiscal and public investment policies on the sovereign's borrowing cost and credit risk in the presence of stochastic output shocks and credit-sensitive funding from investors👇
www.wifo.ac.at/en/event/433...