Image

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 10pts

➡️ Ref: 27% (+3)
🟢 Grn: 17% (-1)
🔵 Con: 17% (-2)
🔴 Lab: 16% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 14% (+1)

— Seats —
➡️ Ref: 337
🟠 Lib: 89
🟢 Grn: 82
🟡 SNP: 47
🔵 Con: 40
🔴 Lab: 23
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 10

Poll: @YouGov, 19-20 Apr 2026 (+/- vs 13 Apr) x.com/LeftieStats/...

Image

🗳️ Ahead of local elections, how have polls shifted since the last time these seats were contested (in 2022)?

➡️ Ref +24.2
🟢 Grn +10.7
🟠 Lib +1.7
🔵 Con -15.5
🔴 Lab -21.6

Since last time these seats were up, support for the two big parties has fallen by over **37pts** 😱 x.com/LeftieStats/...

Very glad to say I have now connected my BlueSky and Twitter account, so every post I make there will be automatically shared here within 30 minutes. This will ensure you guys don't miss out on my local election coverage as I can't manage 2 accounts at once, now I won't have to!

Image

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Senedd MRP projection (Votes | Seats)

🟩 PLAID: 25% | 30 seats (+8)
➡️ REF: 25% | 28 seats (+28)
🔴 LAB: 21% | 24 seats (-20)
🔵 CON: 11% | 7 seats (-23)
🟢 GRN: 10% | 4 seats (+4)
🟠 LIB: 7% | 3 seats (+3)

Via @Moreincommon_, 30 Jan - 10 Apr
--
(+/- vs notional 2021 result) x.com/LeftieStats/...

Image

[ Testing BlueSky linking ] x.com/LeftieStats/...

Holyrood MRP projection (PR vote | Seats):

🟡 SNP: 29% | 56 seats (-8)
➡️ REF: 19% | 22 seats (+22)
🔴 LAB: 16% | 17 seats (-5)
🟠 LIB: 12% | 14 seats (+10)
🔵 CON: 12% | 12 seats (-19)
🟢 GRN: 10% | 8 seats (=)

Via @Moreincommon_, 4 Feb-10 Apr
---
(+/- vs 2021 result)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 6pts

➡️Ref: 25% (-3)
🔵Con: 19% (+2)
🔴Lab: 19% (-2)
🟢Grn: 17% (=)
🟠Lib: 14% (+5)
⚫️Res: 3% (new)

– Seats –
➡️Ref: 262
🔵Con: 85
🟠Lib: 85
🔴Lab: 70
🟢Grn: 70
🟡SNP: 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿Plaid: 8

Poll: @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 9-15 Apr (+/- vs 11 Mar)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 4pts

➡️ Ref: 26% (-4)
🔴 Lab: 22% (+4)
🔵 Con: 19% (+1)
🟢 Grn: 15% (=)
🟠 Lib: 13% (=)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 263
🔴 Lab: 119
🟠 Lib: 80
🔵 Con: 66
🟡 SNP: 47
🟢 Grn: 45
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Plaid: 8

Poll: @tweetfreshwater, 10-12 Apr (+/- vs 1 Mar)

‼️Local elections | Greens LEAD in Hackney

🟢 Grn: 40% (+17)
🔴 Lab: 33% (-21)
➡️ Ref: 11% (+11)
🔵 Con: 8% (-4)
🟠 Lib: 5% (-4)

MRP estimate by @JLPartnersPolls, April 2026
---
(+/- vs 2022 local elections)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 3pts

➡️ Ref: 25% (-5)
🔵 Con: 22% (+3)
🔴 Lab: 21% (+1)
🟢 Grn: 13% (+1)
🟠 Lib: 12% (=)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 210
🔵 Con: 145
🔴 Lab: 113
🟠 Lib: 74
🟡 SNP: 47
🟢 Grn: 28

Poll: @Moreincommon_, 10-13 Apr (+/- vs 8 Apr)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 5pts

➡️ Ref: 24% (=)
🔵 Con: 19% (=)
🟢 Grn: 18% (+2)
🔴 Lab: 17% (+1)
🟠 Lib: 13% (=)
⬛️ Res: 4% (=)
🟥 YP: 0% (-1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 282
🟢 Grn: 91
🔵 Con: 83
🟠 Lib: 81
🟡 SNP: 47
🔴 Lab: 34

Poll: @YouGov, 12-13 Apr (+/- vs 7 Apr)

I just checked and the Loonies aren't even running a candidate there. They intended to, then they fucked up the paperwork and are not listed as a nominated candidate.

I don't think I can make a big deal of this cos their Instagram has been shut down but I'll have a chuckle

holy fuck this is incredible

It has definitely been a vindication of my position that people committing to this thing so early was premature. Some people totally burned their bridges with the Greens over this and now they've been left with nothing. There was no plan, no strategy, not even a name. Hope only gets you so far.

Yep, in July last year I had legions of Corbyn ultras roaring at me that the Green Party needed to dissolve itself and immediately merge into Your Party, and that if we didn't Corbyn would curbstomp us and shit all over us.

Now we're on 16.5% in polls and YP is on 0.2%

‼️BREAKING | Your Party formally splits🥀

Entire YP Scotland executive just quit in protest at treatment of Scottish members & purges of socialists. They aim to set up a new party.

They said: "These are fatal blows to the [YP] project ... it cannot recover"

(Via @ScotNational)

‼️NEW | In Hungary, the centre-right opposition won a landslide, beating far-right autocrat Viktor Orbán.

🔵Tisza (Centre-right): 54%, 138 seats

🟠Fidesz (Far-right): 38%, 54 seats

🟢Homeland (Far-right): 6%, 7 seats

Tisza's supermajority means they can amend constitution.

‼️NOWCAST | Greens set to win more seats in #GE2029 than Labour, suggests latest polling.

➡️ Ref: 331 (+326)
🟠 Lib: 78 (+6)
🟢 Grn: 67 (+63)
🔵 Con: 48 (-73)
🔴 Lab: 47 (-364)
🟡 SNP: 47 (+38)

➡️Reform majority of 12*
---
*de facto majority of 20 due to Speaker/Sinn Fein

The Age of Polanski (Polling round-up) Eleanora explains the Green surge.

‼️ARTICLE | The Age of Polanski🟢

Polanski's opponents said he would destroy the party. Eight months on, the party is stronger than ever.

In this article I give a summary of March's polling, and show what's driving Grn surge

www.statsforlefties.com/2026/04/06/the-age-of-polanski-polling-round-up/

define Tankie

5. Ineligible Organisations - proposal Membership of the following organisations are deemed not to be aligned to our Party’s values and proposed as ineligible for the purposes of Your Party membership rules (this is not an exhaustive list): • Socialist Workers Party • Alliance for Workers’ Liberty • Socialist Party • Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition • Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) • Scottish Socialist Party • Socialist Equality Party • Revolutionary Communist Party These organisations maintain independent national political structures, membership organisations and internal discipline. Their internal organisational models and strategic objectives are distinct from and incompatible with the values and constitutional framework of Your Party. These organisations stand candidates in elections.

‼️NEW | Your Party to expel the Left🥀

Tomorrow, Your Party's exec will vote to purge the socialist left. Members of socialist parties will be expelled, but also anyone in a faction - a direct attack on Grassroots Left.

The vote is expected to pass easily.

(Via @Weekly_Worker)

‼️Greens GAIN Kent council seat from Reform

🟢 Grn: 39% (+27)
➡️ Ref: 33% (-7)
🔵 Con: 15% (-4)
🔴 Lab: 10% (-12)
⚪️ Ind: 1% (-2)
🟠 Lib: 1% (-2)

Ward: Cliftonville (+/- vs 2025 election)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 5%

➡️ Ref: 25% (-1)
🟢 Grn: 20% (=)
🔵 Con: 17% (-1)
🔴 Lab: 16% (+1)
🟠 Lib: 11% (+1)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 331
🟢 Grn: 115
🟠 Lib: 78
🟡 SNP: 48
🔵 Con: 37
🔴 Lab: 11

Poll: @findoutnowUK, 8 April (+/- vs 1 April)

🗳️ Holyrood MRP points to SNP **majority**

🟡 SNP: 67 (+3)
🔴 Lab: 17 (-5)
🟢 Grn: 14 (+6)
➡️ Ref: 14 (+14)
🔵 Con: 9 (-22)
🟠 Lib: 8 (+4)

Source: @ElectCalculus / @FindoutnowUK, 13-31 Mar
(+/- vs 2021 election)

GB News: "dear team, [censored] here from GB News, hope all is well? I was wondering if someone from your team would come on the channel today? Thanks [censored] Stats for Lefties: "Hi. I'm a disabled transgender woman and the daughter of an immigrant, so I would rather stick hot pokers in both my eyes and eat raw sewage than ever appear on GB news. Don't contact me again."

I don't think I ever posted this here, but last year GB News saw one of my infographics and asked me to appear on the show.

I made my answer extremely clear: NO.

🗳️ Mar 2026 average (+/- vs Feb 2026):

➡️ Ref: 27.1% (-1.4)
🔴 Lab: 18.2% (-0.6)
🔵 Con: 18.2% (-0.5)
🟢 Grn: 16.4% (+2.4)
🟠 Lib: 11.6% (-0.8)

Gap between Greens and Labour is now just 2pts.

In GE2024 the gap was 28pts.

‼️NEW | Poll average for March '26

➡️ Ref: 27.1% (+12.4)
🔴 Lab: 18.2% (-16.5)
🔵 Con: 18.2% (-6.2)
🟢 Grn: 16.4% (+9.5)
🟠 Lib: 11.6% (-0.9)

+/- vs GE2024

🗳️ Projected seats based on Ashcroft survey:

➡️ Ref: 174 (+169)
🔵 Con: 168 (+47)
🟢 Grn: 119 (+115)
🟠 Lib: 62 (-10)
🟡 SNP: 47 (+38)
🔴 Lab: 31 (-380)

Based on @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs GE2024)

‼️BREAKING | Greens surge into LEAD (1st!!)

🟢 Grn: 21.4% (+2.1)
➡️ Ref: 20.9% (-1.4)
🔵 Con: 20.5% (+0.2)
🔴 Lab: 17.0% (-0.4)
🟠 Lib: 9.2% (-1.9)

Poll: @LordAPolls, 26-30 Mar (+/- vs 19-23 Feb)

‼️POLL | Reform lead by 6%

➡️ Ref: 26% (+2)
🟢 Grn: 20% (=)
🔵 Con: 18% (=)
🔴 Lab: 15% (-1)
🟠 Lib: 10% (-2)

-- Seats --
➡️ Ref: 321
🟢 Grn: 102
🟠 Lib: 71
🔵 Con: 52
🟡 SNP: 47
🔴 Lab: 8

Poll: @findoutnowUK, 1-2 Apr (+/- vs 27 Mar)