Solutions for heating buildings in EU: vbn.aau.dk/files/819176...

One of the pathways for jet-fuel production partly in the EU: vbn.aau.dk/files/682325...
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This is why energy policy in Europe is not only climate policy. It is also industrial policy, security policy, and resilience policy. We have outlined two of the possible solutions for heating and jet-fuel supply - to structural and very hard to change sectors.
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- Europe still imports the majority of the energy it uses.
- Oil remains the largest imported energy category by far.
- The strategic challenge is not only supply - it is price exposure, resilience, and the ability to absorb geopolitical shocks.
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It is exposed through a wider system of global fuel markets, maritime chokepoints, refining bottlenecks, and gas-price transmission into power prices. The current crisis is a reminder that even after reducing Russian dependence, the EU remains structurally vulnerable to external shocks.
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Eurostat also shows that in the EU import basket in 2025, oil and petroleum products accounted for ~66% and natural gas for ~25%. That matters because Europe is no longer exposed mainly through one dominant supplier alone.
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EU’s energy problem is bigger than one fuel, one route, or one crisis. Since 1973 several shocks has hit. And the dependency has changed from Soviet to Russia to now the middle East and North America. The structural issue is import dependency. In 2025, the EU’s energy import dependency was ~60%.
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My hope is that focus on known technology and solutions we can implement short-term is in focus now: embedded more structurally in policies and in institutions in Member States in further.

- this may not be a short-lived price spike
- energy security is again at centre of European policy reducing fossil dependence
This is not only a climate issue, but resilience, economic stability & strategic security. Europe does not need panic. But does need speed, coordination +structural change
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Here Europe is more exposed. The Commission has therefore urged Member States to prepare demand-saving measures, especially in transport + postpone non-essential refinery maintenance where appropriate, and avoid fragmented national responses that could worsen market instability
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The formal message is clear: the EU’s security of supply is still guaranteed, but we must be ready for a prolonged disruption of international energy trade & act in coordination. This matters because the immediate vulnerability is not crude oil itself, but refined products such as diesel +jet fuel
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This incl further releases from emergency oil stocks and, if necessary, fuel rationing. It is not going to happen, unless the situation is worsened. But EU, member states and we need to be prepared. Long-lasting high prices & potentially more measures to save energy may become reality.
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Europe’s energy warning has just become more serious. Over the past 48 hours, @ec.europa.eu Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has warned that Europe must prepare for a “long-lasting” energy shock in the @financialtimes.com. This is why EU is considering and preparing for all options.
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A clear electrification strategy is needed for Europe - focusing on 1) better use of existing grids 2) more renewable energy close to large demands 3) grid expansion and connections 4) focused policies for each electrified industry type and mode of transport - mining ex. below:

Call for Abstracts for #SESAAU2026 We mix experts from industry/business & top researchers in to contribute to advance: #smartenergysystems #districtheating #energyefficiency #electrification #CCUS #PtX
@janrosenow.bsky.social @dittebrasso.bsky.social @saraneven.bsky.social
smartenergysystems.eu

In the rest of the world - with high dependency on oil/gas and very much affected by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz - the opportunities for #renewableenergy inl #offshorewind, #energyefficiency and electrification become more clear.
#EnergySecurity
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If offshore wind can be bought out of the market with taxpayer money, while long-term climate ambitions are simultaneously softened, it becomes much harder to maintain confidence in the investment logic of the energy transition in the US.
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It is hard to describe this as anything other than a strategic setback. Not only for climate mitigation - but also in making the world a more safe place. The most troubling part may not be the symbolism, but the signal.
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..is moving too slowly and that the Paris 1.5°C pathway is no longer realistically achievable.

When one of the world’s largest energy companies starts revisiting its net-zero ambition, while the Trump administration uses public money to buy offshore wind out of the market.
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..after which TotalEnergies will abandon the U.S. offshore wind projects and redirect the capital into LNG and oil and gas projects in the United States.

Reuters, 26 March 2026 - TotalEnergies will reassess its 2050 net-zero plans, arguing that the global energy transition..👇

There are businesses of the past and of the future - and businesses able to transition.

Reuters, 23 March 2026 - @TotalEnergies abandons US offshore wind. The Trump administration will reimburse roughly $1 billion for offshore wind lease fees..
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Heating and cooling accounts for ~half of EU energy consumption, and space and water heating represented ~75% of final household energy use in 2023. Europe is once again exposed to gas-price shocks. Natural gas prices doubling during current Iran events.
Report link below👇

Måske den mest alvorlige energikrise hidtil!
@fbirol fra @IEA advarede i dag om, at verden nu står i en energikrise, som efter hans vurdering er mere alvorlig end oliekriserne i 1973 + 1979 tilsammen. Samtidig værre for gasmarkedet end chokket efter Ruslands Ukraine-invasion.
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The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a sharp reminder of why Europe cannot leave heating dependent on imported gas. We import ~85%. Reuters reports that the disruption has hit a route carrying around 20% of global oil and LNG.
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Danmark går næppe mod bilfrie søndage eller akutte restriktioner lige nu. Men det ville være en fejl at tro, at vi derfor kan tage let på energikrisen. Danmark står stærkere end mange andre lande, fordi vi ikke er ensidigt afhængige af olie eller naturgas.
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Flere lande indfører restriktioner – kan det blive nødvendigt i Danmark? Mens asiatiske lande indfører drastiske tiltag for at overvinde den nuværende forsyningskrise, vurderer eksperter, at Danmark foreløbig går fri.

..det er også forsyningssikkerhed og økonomisk robusthed. Det sansynlige er, at Hormuzstrædet åbner igen - men ingen ved, om den så lukker og åbner igen i løbet af året.
#energi #forsyningssikkerhed #elektrificering #fjernvarme #grønomstilling

nyheder.tv2.dk/2026-03-24-f...

Pointen er, at vi skal bruge situationen til at reducere afhængigheden af importerede fossile brændsler endnu hurtigere. Mere elektrificering. Mere energieffektivisering. Mere fjernvarme og bedre udnyttelse af egne energikilder.
Det er ikke kun klimapolitik....
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En langvarig konflikt kan få alvorlige konsekvenser - ikke mindst for erhvervslivet, arbejdsplader, dansk konkurrenceevne og også de dele af befolkningen, som ikke har den samme købekraft som gennemsnittet.
Pointen er derfor ikke, at vi skal gå i panik.
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Vi kender endnu ikke det fulde omfang af skaderne eller hvor lang tid det vil tage at genetablere kapaciteten. På kort sigt er Danmark forholdsvis robust. På længere sigt kan konsekvenserne blive alvorlige - især for virksomheder, energipriser og dansk konkurrenceevne.
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.. og fordi vores energisystem er mere diversificeret end i mange andre dele af Europa og især i Asien.

Men det er ikke det samme som, at vi er uden risiko. Den globale kapacitet for olie og flydende naturgas er under pres.
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