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Posts by Ian Smith

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UK gas prices dip below pre-Iran war levels in boost for Reeves Concerns about a full-blown supply crisis recede as Asia cuts consumption

Gas prices recede, in what one fund manager said was "a clear positive for the gilt market”, as it would both “cap the near-term inflation spike and reduce the risk of second-round effects”
www.ft.com/content/d645...

4 hours ago 3 3 0 0
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US stocks race back to a record high 🚀
www.ft.com/content/7d30...

Investors again take the lesson that threats can be ignored.

As a banker put it to me the other month, there is an increasing focus on the modal outcome. so BTD. But does it leave the market more vulnerable to the one that sticks?

4 hours ago 6 2 0 1

www.ft.com/content/218e... 🙅‍♂️

9 hours ago 3 2 0 2

just needs the bearish Europeans to disappear for the day

10 hours ago 3 0 0 0

The S&P 500 is outrageously flirting with 7,000. Outrageous

10 hours ago 9 1 2 0

Fiscal interventions to insulate consumers from energy shock "something to watch very closely", Pimco investor tells journalists

www.ft.com/content/4021...

Also, the manager's CIO earlier said it was "not thrilled" with its gilts overweight, but felt broader market was tending to the pessimistic

13 hours ago 1 0 0 0
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Biff Tannen - Wikipedia

one fund manager text me "there’s a whole Back to the Future path we can go down if this theme catches on"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biff_Ta...

13 hours ago 1 0 3 0

Other acronyms are available 😂

bsky.app/profile/domw...

18 hours ago 4 0 1 0
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‘Bifs’ replace ‘Piigs’ as Europe’s bond market whipping boys Britain, Italy and France have borne the brunt of a sovereign debt sell-off sparked by the Iran war

Spend more on defence, spend to insulate businesses and consumers, spend on energy independence

Investors bet this pressure will "increase fiscal strain" for European economies with bad starting points on debt, such as Britain, Italy, France, dubbed the Bifs
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

19 hours ago 14 7 4 4
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Private credit exposure turns investors away from US life insurers Inflated private ratings could mask credit risks and leave insurance companies undercapitalised

“if any one of those has problems, the whole sector will widen out"

I spoke to an investor betting against US life insurers (via CDS) over their private credit exposure. A snippet in this story led by NY colleague Michelle Chan
www.ft.com/content/14cf...

1 day ago 2 2 1 0

we really do have world-beating lead times. getting ships with the right gear somewhere, having trials, there is nothing we can't do slowly

1 day ago 4 0 0 0

so our choices were either being nuked or having our economy wrecked? lovely stuff

1 day ago 15 0 2 0

making waves today

1 day ago 3 0 1 0
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Trump nominates Pimco executive to lead international affairs at the US Treasury department Bond giant’s head of asset allocation tapped to conduct negotiations with organisations such as the G7

SCOOP: Pimco's Erin Browne is heading to the Treasury department for a role held by the likes of Tim Geithner, Larry Summers and Lael Brainard www.ft.com/content/b42b...

2 days ago 5 2 0 0
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can't believe this hug-a-hoodie stuff from the pope
www.ft.com/content/d3ba...

2 days ago 1 0 0 0
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Middle East war live: Iran threatens to hit back against Middle East ports ahead of US blockade Donald Trump tells US navy to ‘interdict’ ships that pay Iran to pass through Strait of Hormuz

Iran-affected markets are worse today, but not big moves. seems there is still optimism out there that there can be a deal

live blog: www.ft.com/content/2324...?

2 days ago 2 0 0 0
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Donald Trump lashes out at Pope Leo on social media for criticism of Iran war [FREE TO READ] The head of the Catholic Church has emerged as a leading voice of opposition against US foreign policy

this story is reminding me of one of Catholicism's best quotes

"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist"
as.ft.com/r/3e3af84e-c...

2 days ago 75 22 2 0

au revoir mes amis

1 week ago 5 2 0 0
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Fund managers snap up bonds on growth threat from Iran war After sharp market sell-off, debt investors shift focus from inflation fears to likely damage to economies

“We think the market is underpricing the probability that central banks will have to cut interest rates further out, in order to offset the growth shock"

Big fund managers going back in the water... betting focus will shift from bad news on inflation to bad news on growth
www.ft.com/content/397d...

1 week ago 9 3 0 0

👇🏻

1 week ago 5 0 0 0
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UK borrowers coming off five-year fixes face biggest mortgage ‘shock’ Those refinancing a five-year fix face paying an extra £395 a month on average — but will still be paying less than those who fixed two years ago

🫠
www.ft.com/content/5c92...

2 weeks ago 7 3 0 0

seems a great idea: it's well known Iranians very much like the British and there is no bad blood there at all

2 weeks ago 26 3 0 0
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Iran war shock is intensifying risks to financial system, says BoE Central bank warns conflict likely to hit economic growth as Keir Starmer insists UK ‘well placed’ to weather crisis

Read our fin reg editor Martin Arnold's take on the broader report here: including that hedge fund repo borrowing fell by a fifth in the deleveraging www.ft.com/content/132a...

2 weeks ago 14 4 3 0
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Middle East war live: Stocks rally on hopes Iran war will end soon Burst of investor optimism after Donald Trump says US to end conflict in Iran within ‘2 to 3 weeks’

interesting tidbit: the BoE's Financial Policy Committee discussed some of what we had been reporting, an unwind of popular hedge fund bets on short-term rates that fed broader market vol
www.ft.com/content/bd91...

2 weeks ago 10 5 1 0

o lovely

2 weeks ago 30 5 0 0
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Chart that tells a story by @raydouglas.bsky.social
from a timely piece by William Sandlund on Chinese government bonds holding their value during the conflict
www.ft.com/content/7221...

2 weeks ago 10 4 1 0
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New BOJ board member warns of stagflation risk from Iran war Japan may face stagflation ​risks from the Iran war ‌that would be challenging to deal with using monetary policy, new Bank of ​Japan board member Toichiro Asada ​said on Wednesday.

New BOJ board member warns of stagflation risk from Iran war reut.rs/48mOUOu

2 weeks ago 7 7 0 0
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Middle East war live: Stocks rally on hopes Iran war will end soon Burst of investor optimism after Donald Trump says US to end conflict in Iran within ‘2 to 3 weeks’

It's one of those war is over (if they want it) days on markets. Stocks 📈 Yields 📉 oil 📉
www.ft.com/content/bd91...

2 weeks ago 7 1 0 0
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The New York Times drops freelance journalist who used AI to write book review Writer and author Alex Preston said he “made a serious mistake” after a reader spotted similarities between his review and one that appeared in the Guardian

This is a real cautionary tale for journalists thinking of using AI for editing/amending/adding text to their work www.theguardian.com/books/2026/m...

2 weeks ago 48 21 3 6
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it's a grim thought
www.ft.com/content/b2c8...

2 weeks ago 9 1 0 0