Blockchain fixes this

Wall St: Is this bad volatility?

Political economy of polycrisis, 2026:

‘The first quarter was marked by geopolitical shocks…This type of volatility is good for investment banks which make money from financing and facilitating client trades.’

At least we can lay the Suez crisis analogy to rest now

see also neoliberal geopolitics vs state capitalist geopolitics
www.tni.org/en/article/t...

How Geopolitics Overran Globalization The End of the Dream of Economic Integration

Critical IPE on competing varieties of state capitalism is a better take, discuss

A Post-American Persian Gulf? The Iran War Will Accelerate the Region’s Economic Transformation

‘China’s approach reflects a belief in the Gulf states’ future competencies and relevance in the global economy that the United States simply does not share.’

Caretaker manager, Crewe Alexandra

*glances at emails in Tesco*

Scott Bessent discussed ways to recast ties between Federal Reserve and Treasury in Bank of England’s image Conversations come at time when Donald Trump has launched assault on US central bank

Curiously this has more to do with Bessent’s desire to rein in QE, and not Trump’s desire to lower interest rates - which speaks to the incoherence of monetary politics in the current administration

I’ve set a reminder to do this

👀

It also feels like different parts of the US state are now simply following standard operating procedures (troop build up to provide ‘options’) & bureaucratic drift (15-point plan) in face of inaction; meanwhile Trump has lost interest and is looking for his own personal off ramp

Thanks John

Thanks Zsofi!

The article offers new epistemic perspectives on the pre- and post-GFC drivers of UK pension financialisation and reveals how highly fragmented pension ecologies pose unique epistemological challenges to prudential regulators
 
6/n

We argue that regulators’ were constrained by epistemic pathologies grounded in professional practices and reputational concerns which inhibited the co-production of new actionable knowledge as the basis for mitigating systemic risk
 
5/n

Next, we explain how systemic risk developed as an emergent issue in the blind spots in professional knowledge located between pension regulators and financial regulators
 
4/n

We attribute the rise of LDI after 2007 to the ability of investment consultants to arbitrage differences in professional knowledge between pension funds and pension regulators by developing hinge strategies around using leverage to ‘derisk’
 
3/n

We map the contested epistemic politics of knowledge production across linked ecologies, analysing how the emergence of new issues between existing pools of professional knowledge generates opportunities and barriers to issue control for different groups

2/n

Pleased to finally publish this paper with Mareike Beck on the epistemic origins of the 2022 gilt market crisis in @jeppjournal.bsky.social
 
How can we explain the limited regulatory response to the increasing systemic risk of LDI strategies in UK pensions?

1/n 🧵

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

It must be exhausting as a Cold War 2 warrior waking up every morning and trying to work out how Trump’s latest post helps the US beat China

When realists talk about the ‘unintended consequences’ of the Iran war what they actually mean are the *entirely predictable* outcomes of interdependence but states aren’t governed by rational actors, discuss etc

So Trump tried to avoid a forever war in Iran and triggered a forever energy crisis instead

Fwiw, I’d expect a massive energy price shock + change of PM in 2026 to lead to a reopening of the Covid-era debate around BOE independence and monetary-fiscal policy coordination

Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? Is oil behind the U.S. attack on Iran? To understand the Trump administration’s military targets, take a closer look at the petrostate pattern.

Great use of plausibility probing here, highly recommended:

‘The petrostate pattern may be less a strategy than a convergence: Trump’s grievances and impulses aligning, repeatedly, with the material interests of powerful people who know how to make the most of these opportunities.’

How’s Cold War II going?

Starmer

Seeing like a state 2.0. This paper argues that artificial intelligence is becoming for the contemporary state what statistics was for the modern state: a new way of “seeing” society and governing it.

Starting to wonder whether a scenario in which the oil price remains $90-100/bbl for an extended period might be the worst one here. High enough to do economic damage, not high enough for the US administration to seek a quick resolution.