A guerra no #Irã tem um alto preço #ambiental, mas pode acelerar a transição para energias #renováveis e soluções positivas para a #natureza. Discutimos os custos e benefícios em um artigo com Johan Rockström, Carlos Nobre e Lourenço Bustani na #ilustrissima.

www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrissima...

The Amazon's silent crime crisis (commentary) The Amazon is approaching a dangerous threshold. Long understood as the world’s largest tropical forest and a critical regulator of the global climate, its future is increasingly shaped by the converg...

The #Amazon is closer to a tipping point than we think, and #environmentalcrime is pushing it faster. I joined Carlos Nobre, one of the world’s leading Amazon scientists, and Ilona Szabo to unpack the risks and responses in @mongabay.com. @igarapeorg.bsky.social news.mongabay.com/2026/04/the-...

In the latest discussion paper in our Global (Dis)Order joint programme with @carnegieendowment.org, @muggah.bsky.social analyses the political importance of responding to perceived insecurity in an environment where organised crime is increasingly influencing elections and democracy.

Severed connections A string of disruptions to undersea cables in the Baltic and South China and Red Seas has heightened concerns over the security of critical infrastructure.

🚨Multiple Russian submarines were detected spying on underwater cables and pipelines in and around UK waters while the world was distracted with Iran. #SecDev has tracked the spread of hybrid tactics across Europe over the last year. @mishaglenny.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/severed-co...

Why Pakistan and China brokered a fragile Iran ceasefire Pakistan is entangled in a conflict with Afghanistan. China is the U.S.'s chief global rival. The two nations emerged as unlikely but effective mediators.

#Pakistan and #China brokered the 11th hour truce. But this is an unstable "pause" and escalation is likely. #Israel is outraged, #Iran may overplay its hand, and the #US gun is cocked. Worst case scenario avoided, but this is far from done. Spoke to @usatoday.com. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.

The #US’s possible designation of #Brazil's #PCC and #CV as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) would carry consequences not just for criminal organizations, but for banks, companies, and national politics in an election year.

americasquarterly.org/article/braz...

The #Iran war is (re)teaching us geography. It’s a reminder that #chokepoints are maritime, subsea, mineral, digital and climatic. The corridor targeted today may be the supply chain failure or energy crisis felt on the other side of the world tomorrow. #WEF. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

O #Brasil é um dos países mais vulneráveis ao clima. Uma revisão sistemática de mais de 20 mil projeções climáticas brasileiras encontrou riscos severos em todos os seis biomas do país. @valoreconomico.bsky.social

valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...

Escalation risks in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war A game-theoretic assessment suggests the likeliest outcome is a war that gets worse without anyone quite deciding to make it so

A month into the biggest US war since Iraq and there’s no clear strategy, exit, and clear “win”. Despite the 5 day pause, the #Iran war is widening—and starting to run itself. Our new @secdev.bsky.social note finds that escalation is still the most likely path: flashnote.secdev.com/p/escalation...

Starlink Has Privatized Geopolitics From Ukraine to Iran, Elon Musk’s service has become an arbiter of foreign policy.

#Starlink is reshaping wars, uprisings, and organized crime - with almost no oversight. Adversaries and criminal networks are already exploiting that gap. With @mishaglenny.bsky.social in #foreignpolicy

foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/s...

Lula! How Brazil made him — and he remade Brazil Richard Lapper’s richly rewarding biography charts his route from firebrand to pragmatic president

Lula! captures not just the applause but the grind, showing how Lula’s political odyssey became inseparable from Brazil’s own. With Brazil heading into a pivotal 2026 election, the story it tells feels less like history than prologue. My latest for @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9f7b...

Brazil is both the world's environmental treasure and its most exposed victim (commentary) In May 2024, floodwaters submerged much of Porto Alegre. Brazil’s fourth-largest city lost bridges, hospitals, and months of economic output. Hundreds died. The images briefly commanded global attenti...

Brazil feeds the world, holds 60% of the Amazon and is home to 12% of all fresh water — yet is one of the most climate-exposed nations on Earth. A risk concealed by lobbies who externalize costs onto those with no voice. Latest with @Mongabay: news.mongabay.com/2026/03/braz...

The global price tag of war in the Middle East The Iran war’s cascading economic fallout is radiating well beyond the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East, reshaping markets and supply chains potentially for years to come.

The #Iran war's #economic shockwave is global — but the pain isn't equal. #Asia imports 80%+ of Gulf oil. #India, #Bangladesh, #Africa can't buffer the hit. Higher food, fuel, fertilizer costs land hardest in the Global South who pay a bill for a war it didn't start. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

#Brazil is the world’s breadbasket. It grows over a third of the world's coffee, almost two third of all soy exports, and is the second corn exporter. It imports 85% of its fertilizer — 40% through Hormuz. The harvest crunch hits in September. www.reuters.com/business/bra...

‘Worst-case scenario’: Middle East nuclear concerns haunt top health officials The World Health Organization is being “vigilant” for any kind of atomic threat, the regional director for the eastern Mediterranean tells POLITICO.

WHO warns of #nuclear worst-case scenario as Iran conflict escalates: "The consequences will last for decades." Staff are preparing — and hoping it never happens. www.politico.eu/article/were...

Política Nacional de Defesa: Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de segurança, mas está resolvendo o problema errado Brasília passou 2024 e 2025 renovando sua doutrina de segurança nacional. O resultado foi uma capa do século XXI para um livro do século XX — e um plano mal adaptado às ameaças que se aproximam do paí...

O Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de defesa, mas continua pensando no inimigo errado. Embora a #guerra convencional seja um risco real, as verdadeiras ameaças vêm de redes #criminosas, ataques #cibernéticos e crises #climáticas. Estamos armados para ontem.

theconversation.com/politica-nac...

Análise: como a Inteligência Artificial está mudando o equilíbrio global de poder A IA já está remodelando a ordem global por meio das cadeias internacionais de suprimentos, da política industrial, dos mercados de trabalho, do planejamento energético e do espaço informacional

A corrida por #IA não é sobre chips — é sobre poder. Quem controla energia, minerais, data centers e regras globais controla o jogo. Mas a pressa por #AGI acelera riscos. Quando velocidade vence cautela, a conta chega. #ConversationBrasil

theconversation.com/analise-como...

#Climate & #nature loss aren’t just environmental issues — they’re defining #security risks of the 21st century. They fuel #food and #energy shocks, drive #migration, and intensify conflict over #water and #land. We’re still underpricing the danger. #Mongabay

news.mongabay.com/2026/02/tipp...

IA e corrida armamentista digital YouTube video by globonews

A #IA militar está remodelando os campos de batalha, de #Gaza à #Ucrânia. Ela já está integrada a sistemas de apoio à decisão e está borrando os limites da responsabilidade humana. Falei hoje à noite com a #Globonews sobre por que isso importa.

youtube.com/watch?v=O2c4...

Haiti’s Political Crisis Deepens Amid a Slide Into Criminal Governance Confrontation on the Transitional Presidential Council is not only about leadership, but about whether a future transition can reduce the influence of armed groups.

#Haiti isn’t just facing a monumental crime wave. It’s experiencing criminal governance. Gang coalitions control territory, tax residents, run markets, and fill the vacuum left by a stalled political transition with no elected leaders.

americasquarterly.org/article/hait...

EU states back record South America trade deal after 25 years EU states gave a provisional go-ahead on Friday for the bloc to sign its largest ever free trade accord with South American group Mercosur, more than 25 years since talks began and after months of wra...

#EU-#Mercosur deal finally signed. We’ll be seeing many more FTAs as the rest of the world seeks to derisk from the U.S.

www.reuters.com/world/americ...

The US raid risks normalizing cross-border “law enforcement” grabs—setting a precedent Moscow and Beijing can copy. Russia could cite it for moves against Ukrainian leaders; China could frame ops against Taiwan as policing, not war. Spoke to @aljazeera.com

www.instagram.com/reel/DTEVwjD...

What will make or break the EU in 2026? Last year radically transformed Europe, as Russia continued its war in Ukraine and the US reneged on longstanding commitments to the continent.

2026 could make or break Europe: Ukraine escalation, a tougher US, fragile and populist politics and climate shocks loom — pushing the #EU toward deeper integration or dangerous fragmentation. New from #ParliamentMagazine

www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...

The Ballot and the Bullet Across Latin America, organised crime is not just killing people, it is also killing democracy

Chile’s runoff win for hardliner Kast signals a wider shift: across Latin America, organized #crime is reshaping #democracy. Even where violence falls, fear drives voters toward “iron fist” politics—trading rights for the promise of control. #SecDev

flashnote.secdev.com/p/the-ballot...

A política de segurança, que tem no centro um estado de exceçãopermanente, tornou-se um espetáculo, uma fusão de justiça criminal, reality show e propaganda digital. @valoreconomico.bsky.social

valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...

Mesmo com estimativas cautelosas, esses domínios criminais juntos somam talvez R$ 1,3 trilhão a R$ 1,5 trilhão anualmente, da ordem de 12% a 14% do PIB do Brasil, aproximadamente o mesmo tamanho das economias de Portugal ou da República Tcheca. oglobo.globo.com/google/amp/e...

'Every Man We Killed Is a Gangster': On the Front Lines with Haiti's Vigilantes Jean Ernest Muscadin's official duties are to prosecute crimes — but he's been accused of summarily killing dozens of purported gang members himself

With #Haiti’s government paralyzed and gangs ruling the capital, vigilante commissioner Muscadin embodies the nation’s desperation - seen as a savior by supporters and a human-rights violator by critics. Spoke to @rollingstone.com about what’s at stake.

www.rollingstone.com/culture/cult...

How crime in Brazil drags down the economy and heaps economic pain on the nation’s poor The percentage hit on Brazil’s GDP could be in the double digits.

#Brazil’s criminal economy is a vast drag on growth. Once indirect losses are included, #crime may be shaving 12–14% off GDP each year, a regressive hidden tax on households and firms.

theconversation.com/how-crime-in...

Com prejuízos de até R$ 1,5 trilhão aos cofres públicos, crime é imposto oculto na economia brasileira Estes são os números oficiais mais conservadores das perdas anuais causadas pelo contrabando, a evasão fiscal, os crimes ambientais e a violência

Brazil has a vast “invisible criminal economy” worth 12–14% of GDP — a hidden tax that hits the poor hardest. Brasília’s starting to treat crime not just as a public health, but as a central economic issue. @theconvo-bot.bsky.social

theconversation.com/com-prejuizo...

'Estilo Bukele' de segurança pública em El Salvador poderia ser replicado no Brasil? - BBC News Brasil Líderes da direita no Brasil, como o governador de Minas Geraus, Romeu Zema (Novo), e o deputado federal Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG), defendem e elogiam modelo.

#Bukele inspira políticos brasileiros com seu modelo de “mano dura”, mas especialistas alertam para riscos e limites. No #Brasil, poder das facções, regras constitucionais e escala do país impedem copiar El Salvador. www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...