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Posts by James McCaw

❓ Interested in contributing to the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD; @gs-idd.bsky.social) mission, values & strategic plan?

📧 Sign up to the GSIDD mailing list to receive updates: www.gsidd.org/join-us-old

👇 View GSIDD mission, values & strategic plan details.

4 days ago 1 1 0 0
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About | GSIDD

1/ Would you like to input on GSIDD aims and plans?

💬 As we collectively shape the future of GSIDD, we invite the infectious disease dynamics community to review & provide feedback on our proposed mission, values & strategic plan.

🔗: www.gsidd.org/about

#IDsky #EpiSky #PublicHealth #OneHealth 🧪

1 week ago 2 1 1 1

Postdoc (Sydney, Australia)
Post-Doc Fellow (Level B) in Infectious Disease Modelling
with Alexandra Hogan, James Wood
at UNSW Sydney
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2512

1 week ago 1 3 0 0

Early career faculty (Sydney, Australia)
Teaching and research 5 year position at level B (lecturer) with a focus on IDD
at @UNSW
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2511

1 week ago 2 1 0 0
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Looking for Long Covid: A Clash of Definition and Study Design Influential studies from the VA St. Louis take a broad view of long Covid. Not every expert agrees with the approach.

A propos nothing, this is a great long read on Al-Aly's Long Covid studies
undark.org/2024/07/25/l...

1 year ago 4 3 0 0
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.

1/ 👋 Hi all, we are the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD). #GSIDD #IDsky #EpiSky 🧪

🗺️ GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics.

➕ Follow us for updates on our activities!

🔗: www.gsidd.org

1 month ago 15 5 1 3
Lecturer / Postdoctoral Fellow in Applied Mathematics or Statistics (2-year fixed-term) - University of Canterbury | Te Whare Wānanga o Waitaha

🎓We are advertising three 2-year research+teaching positions in applied maths or stats.

These have a reduced teaching load (50 lectures a yr) compared to a standard academic position so applicants can gain teaching experience while having time for research

jobs.canterbury.ac.nz/jobdetails/a...

1 month ago 8 13 1 0
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Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) | infectious disease dynamics GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners, and educators in infectious disease dynamics.

I'm excited to be co-hosting the launch with @bansallab.bsky.social!

And please note for some people around the world, one or both of these sessions will be on Friday 27th (your local time - so please check the website and use the calendar invites on that page).

1 month ago 4 3 0 0
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Join us for the launch event! We are excited to invite you to the official launch of the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD) on February 26th, 2026.This launch marks an important milestone for our global communi...

Launch of the Global Society of Infectious Disease Dynamics. 🎉

2 online webinars on Thursday 26th.
Do join to see what it's all about, and get involved in the community as it kicks off!

www.gsidd.org/post/join-us...

1 month ago 26 14 1 1

I'm confident it is this new variant though. And I'm also hopeful that our real-time analyses will eventually (2026?!) be public in near real-time

5 months ago 1 0 1 0
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Inferring temporal trends of multiple pathogens, variants, subtypes or serotypes from routine surveillance data Abstract. Estimating the temporal trends in infectious disease activity is crucial for monitoring disease spread and the impact of interventions. Surveilla

No sequencing, but by combining sub-type proportions with overall notifications and our statistical methods (academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...), ACEFA (acefa-epi-analytics.org) identified clear onset of the late H3N2 epidemic in early August this year. Sadly, reports aren't made public in real-time

5 months ago 1 0 1 0
UNSW School of BABS Special Seminar


Peer review meltdown
Carl T. Bergstrom, University of Washington

Host/Chair Prof Mark Tanaka

Monday 23 June 2025

1pm-2pm 

Mathews Theatre C

You’ve seen it yourself. Peer review is coming apart at the seams. Editors face a mighty struggle to recruit reviewers. Researchers are overwhelmed with review requests. Authors wait months or longer for low-quality reviews of their work. In this talk, I present a series of simple mathematical models to illustrate what is happening and why. (1) An elite journal relies on peer review to identify the top papers; knowing the quality of the peer review process, authors self-screen and send only their best work to this journal. But when the reward from publishing in the elite journal increases, submission volume increases. (2) When submission volume increases, review quality drops as the most qualified reviews are no longer available — but we prove that when review quality drops, submission volume necessarily increases as more authors try to sneak in undeservedly. This feedback process swamps the journals with submissions and erodes the quality of review. (3) We next consider what happens as elite journals proliferate and show that, paradoxically, as the number of elite journals increases, researchers self-screen more assiduously, but the review load continues to increase. To illustrate the consequences, we consider welfare measures for authors, reviewers, and readers. (4) Finally, we explore the way in which aggressive desk rejection policies can partially check this peer review meltdown.  

UNSW School of BABS Special Seminar Peer review meltdown Carl T. Bergstrom, University of Washington Host/Chair Prof Mark Tanaka Monday 23 June 2025 1pm-2pm Mathews Theatre C You’ve seen it yourself. Peer review is coming apart at the seams. Editors face a mighty struggle to recruit reviewers. Researchers are overwhelmed with review requests. Authors wait months or longer for low-quality reviews of their work. In this talk, I present a series of simple mathematical models to illustrate what is happening and why. (1) An elite journal relies on peer review to identify the top papers; knowing the quality of the peer review process, authors self-screen and send only their best work to this journal. But when the reward from publishing in the elite journal increases, submission volume increases. (2) When submission volume increases, review quality drops as the most qualified reviews are no longer available — but we prove that when review quality drops, submission volume necessarily increases as more authors try to sneak in undeservedly. This feedback process swamps the journals with submissions and erodes the quality of review. (3) We next consider what happens as elite journals proliferate and show that, paradoxically, as the number of elite journals increases, researchers self-screen more assiduously, but the review load continues to increase. To illustrate the consequences, we consider welfare measures for authors, reviewers, and readers. (4) Finally, we explore the way in which aggressive desk rejection policies can partially check this peer review meltdown. 

Australian friends!

I'm going to be visiting Sydney in just over a week. I'll be at UNSW on June 23-25th and Macquarie on June 26-27th.

I'd love to catch up with people in person, and also will be giving (at least) two talks at UNSW.

The first is science-of-science modeling talk, on June 23:

10 months ago 124 24 10 1

As was I (same conference)

10 months ago 2 0 1 0
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Diabolus Ex Machina This Is Not An Essay

Possibly the best thing I've read about ChatGPT yet.

h/t @melaniemitchell.bsky.social

amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...

10 months ago 1028 377 54 118

For example, explaining that smoking causes lung cancer "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

Helping people understand that vaccines prevent diseases and do not cause autism "directs people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes."

1 year ago 242 42 5 0

A core element of public health involves working with the public to help them understand how they can protect themselves and their neighbors from disease.

This memo (see the next post) equates this vital aspect of public communication with censorship.

1 year ago 619 226 12 8

Here NIH officials target contracts that "may be related to any form of censorship at all or *directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes*."

Directing people to believe one idea over another regarding health outcomes IS public health. It's also education.

1 year ago 426 126 10 9

A science agency wants to stop knowing which ideas are true and which ones aren’t.

1 year ago 125 44 3 1

Nailed it

1 year ago 6 1 0 0
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I would very much like the researchers we already have in Australia to be properly funded, before we consider new money for poaching people from other countries. But one cannot help but contrast this ERC announcement with the narrow thinking here in Australia.

1 year ago 36 2 2 0
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How immunity shapes the long-term dynamics of influenza H3N2 Author summary Influenza A H3N2 causes yearly epidemics in temperate regions causing substantial mortality and morbidity, particularly in older individuals. Infection with influenza elicits an immune ...

doi.org/10.1371/jour...

1 year ago 1 1 0 0

Very important paper that avoids saying ANZ had some easily followable approach to COVID, while at the same time drawing out genuinely general principles for pandemic response - not least that it requires but is not receiving adequate resources.

1 year ago 14 5 0 0
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Latest post on measles vaccines and the fallacy of ‘one more study to settle things’: kucharski.substack.com/p/a-wild-vac...

1 year ago 173 52 5 0

In one week:
- An unnecessary study to investigate a debunked vaccine conspiracy has been authorized.
- Federal grants to study vaccine hesitancy have been rescinded.
- False conspiracies regarding measles are been pushed by health leadership.
The scale of damage this is causing will last decades.

1 year ago 435 129 11 10

I don't know how else to say this except for bluntly:

It is not normal to have outbreaks of preventable diseases in wealthy countries.
It is not normal to have children dying from preventable diseases in wealthy countries.

This is the first US measles death in 10 years. There should be none.

1 year ago 1378 401 12 15

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Developing an integrated modelling and health economics approach to understand Strep A transmission and control.
with Rebecca Chisholm, Angela Devine
at La Trobe University
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2281

1 year ago 2 3 0 0

this is how it's done

1 year ago 269 72 2 1

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia)
Mathematical modelling of antivirals against influenza virus infection
with @ada-w-yan.bsky.social @jmccaw.bsky.social
at University of Melbourne
More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2268

1 year ago 2 1 0 1

The quadratic formula is one of the great achievements of human civilisation; artists of all people should realise that we should provide support to and education in all such endeavours regardless of immediate utility or variability in subjective enjoyment.

1 year ago 59 11 9 0
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Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities Open letter on importance of research in the social sciences and humanities   Tēnā koe Prime Minister, The role of the Royal Society Te Apārangi, as set out in the Royal Society of New Zealand Act,...

www.royalsociety.org.nz/news/open-le...

1 year ago 22 14 1 0