This is really good from Chris -a just read for anyone with an interest in polling.

Council Simulation — Labour Together

We’ve built an interactive game to show what the pressure of adult social care looks like in practice. In Run the Council, you take charge of a fictional council for four years. Can you run ‘Northfield Council’ amongst mounting financial pressures? Play here: www.labourtogether.uk/council-sim

Now you come to mention it....

Looking forward to Nick Timothy condemning the group of Christians outside Parliament right now who are singing religious songs outside, in public, not in a church in a clear "act of domination". Or... Is there something different about these guys!!

Fixing the shop front of the state — Labour Together The contract between councils and residents has broken down. People pay more council tax every year and get less out. This paper argues for a big bang reform: nationalise the funding of adult social c...

Dan proposes taking social care out of council tax, funding it from national taxation instead. This makes it politically easier to fix its regressive and unfair structure, given that council bills will overall fall.

Much more detail in the paper here:
www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

We know that council taxpayers wildly underestimate how much of their money goes on social care. One of the reasons council tax is perceived as so unfair is that people don't understand where their money is going, as our polling found. And so the system limps on, even as it stops making sense. 2/

Local government finances are in trouble. Council tax is outdated and regressive. Social care is underfunded.

But council tax reform sits in the “here be dragons” bit of British politics, since it contributed to Thatcher's downfall 36 years ago. But @danmead.bsky.social has a solution! 1/

Staggering that many on the right (eg Andrew Mitchell) still think the UK isn't supportive enough of the US. They are the equivalent of tankies, so wedded to their pro American world view, that the fact the US is led by a malevolent toddler who is directly harming the UK economy, is irrelevant.

You don't need to care about international law or humanitarianism - even from a purely cynical perspective you'd have thought that falling stock markets and rising oil prices (which may ultimately feed through into inflation) would convince arch-capitalists that this war is a bad idea.

Honestly bewildered as why the right is so supportive - is it reflexive pro-Americanism which ignores the fact the US is currently led by a malevolent toddler? Is it a reflexive desire to make war on countries led specifically by *Muslim* extremists?

The default assumption that "the right is brilliant at politics" is undermined by their stance on Iran. Twice as many Brits oppose action against Iran as support it. Starmer's initial reluctance was the only sane response to a war that makes Iraq 2003 look like a masterpiece of strategic planning.

A senior Danish guy in the Social Democrats said to me that Denmark does not think of itself as a multicultural country whereas Britain does, which makes our situation very different.

They win only if the anti Reform voters catastrophically split the vote and/or don't turn out. Farage is a divisive and motivating figure for the anti Reform voters, I wonder if it's not actually a good move for him to stay away.

Getting shown up in the arena of elite impunity by *the British monarchy* is an incredible “America at 250!” achievement

Let Thames Water fail — Labour Together Thames Water is on the ropes. This paper argues that the easiest option – a fudged deal with creditors that softens pollution targets – would be a political mistake. Instead, Labour should let Thames ...

For a practical guide to how a swift administration for Thames might look, read the report. Water you waiting for!!
www.labourtogether.uk/all-reports/...

There is also a big political prize in allowing Thames Water to go into administration. It could reduce bills for 16m people and show Labour as on the side of ordinary people against a big business that really is an extractor, not a producer.

Instead we argue Thames Water should be allowed to go into administration. This may need some temporary £ from HMT. But it will be the senior creditor and can charge a premium rate of interest. So the taxpayer is almost guaranteed to be made whole. God made fiscal headroom for moments like this!

NEW PAPER from @labourtogether.bsky.social argues we should allow Thames Water to go down the drain.

The alternative is a fudged deal that softens pollution targets and sees large returns for hedge funds. This will fuel calls for nationalising the industry, and the uncertainty could push up bills.

Trade unions are pretty popular! The reluctance to make the case for strengthening them, seems to stem from a historic and now misplaced belief, that unions are still unpopular. Amazing how people who claim to guided by "what the people want" so often fail to look at actual public opinion.

Yes, but the PLP are largely socially liberal by instinct but are incentivised, through fear of Reform taking their jobs, to want a tougher line on immigration, in a way the membership aren't

The problem that Amy new leadership candidate has is that they need 80 nominations from a PLP who mostly face Reform as their challenger and many of whom (wrongly IMO) think being tougher on migration will help, but they also need to win the Labour membership who are very socially liberal.

Perhaps things will change after last week and the Greens get momentum behind them. Or the anti-Reform vote splits catastrophically and lets Reform through the middle. But I wouldn't write Labour off entirely until it's clear that on the ground, that the Greens are seen as the main challenger.

At the risk of looking foolish in 3 wks time, I think this gives Labour at least a chance of holding the seat, *if* they can maintain their position as the party with the best chance of beating Reform. Worth remembering the Greens were a poor third in GE2024 so they have a lot of ground to make up.

A big factor in Gorton & Denton is the significant number of voters who will be seriously scared about having a Reform MP. Imagine being Muslim and having to go to *Matt Goodwin* with your immigration casework. So they'll be highly motivated to vote for whoever is best placed to defeat Reform.

But if the Greens come ahead of Labour, then it strongly suggests that they - and not Labour - are the most effective opposition to Reform in a bunch of seats in England where they were previously in 3rd or 4th place. And that progressives should rally behind them and not Labour...

The most important thing about this by-election won't be who wins, it will be which of the anti-Reform parties comes first. If Reform win it will only be because the opposition has split catastrophically - if Lab come 2nd, it is a warning of what happens when Greens don't tactically vote.

Kemi therefore *does* have an opportunity to reposition the Tory party back to being a reasonably sensible small state, socially conservative (but not radically so) party, because those are her beliefs. But she's choosing not to do that.

I think the point about Reform is that they are *not* a radical right wing party in the same way Kemi is radically right wing - she is *economically* right wing, whereas Reform is more ambivalent on this, and it's anchor belief is around immigration, which is not her personal obsession.

True, but I guess they are motivated by observing the shift in power to Reform and wanting to follow it. If you're the actual leader of the Tories, you're more incentivised to fight to keep the Conservatives relevant

I don't think Kemi would join Reform. She's a culture warrior but not *obsessed* with immigration, eg had to be pushed into leaving ECHR. She's very right wing economically, but Reform has flirted with big state ideas (eg nationalising steel, lifting 2 child limit) which would be anathema to her.