Bonus points for mentioning ‘the Jersey model’ in at least one of your sessions!

Key polling showing different voter perception of the benefits between a) doing the incredibly politically and administratively tricky job of rejoining the single market and/or a customs union and b) rejoining the EU. The political push for Rejoin could happen sooner than most people expect.

A real pleasure to join the BBC World Weekend programme early this morning, and to witness firsthand what a seriously impressive broadcaster Gary O’Donoghue is. We talked about the Middle East war, the energy shock, the Hungarian and Bulgarian elections, and other things.

Really good analysis of Orbán’s downfall and Magyar’s victory for Hungary and the EU

Hungary blocks EU sanctions against violent Israeli settlers Hungary, represented by Minister Péter Szijjártó, also blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and withdrew its approval for the maxi-loan to Ukraine agreed by leaders in December.

Reminder that in addition to Russia/Ukraine issues, Orbán was also vetoing more sanctions against violent West Bank settlers
www.eunews.it/en/2026/02/2...

An election is coming up in Slovakia next year, and Fico is no doubt watching the results from Budapest nervously tonight. Orbán’s defeat could have a big mobilising effect on the Slovak democratic opposition forces to help push him out.

Orbán concedes – wow! 😮

Extraordinary numbers for Tisza. Now 136 seats, a supermajority of 3, at 53% of counted votes.

An existential territory for Orbán if the opposition holds the margin. But will Orbán leave office without putting up one last fight?

This is the demographics of electoral politics in all central European countries: older, less educated voters tend to favour strongman rule, overlook corruption and lean anti-West, while younger generations are overwhelmingly pro-EU, more liberal and committed to the rule of law and democracy.

A must-follow for the Hungarian election – and its aftermath – is my colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social, who knows a great deal about Hungary’s electoral politics, among many other things.

Two weeks ago, the Hungarian opposition was bracing for a false flag operation, an "emergency" that would allow Viktor Orban to turn the tide or even cancel an election he is losing. Now it appears to have arrived

Thank you Peter!

WTO reform after Yaoundé: What next for the multilateral trade order? The failure of the WTO’s ‘reform ministerial’ deepens the strain on the global trade system. But it also points to a possible path for future co-operation among coalitions of the willing.

One of the better summaries of the WTO's Yaoundé Ministerial Conference. “Members arrived with irreconcilable ideas about what the WTO is for and what reform should mean in a more hostile world.” But there was good news too …

By @antonspisak.bsky.social

www.cer.eu/insights/wto...

WTO reform after Yaoundé: What next for the multilateral trade order? The failure of the WTO’s ‘reform ministerial’ deepens the strain on the global trade system. But it also points to a possible path for future co-operation among coalitions of the willing.

A new piece from me on the WTO 'reform ministerial' in Cameroon, what it tells us about the future of the multilateral trade order, and why it isn't all bad news.

www.cer.eu/insights/wto...

Really good thread on the dynamics behind what is probably going to be a neck-to-neck election in Hungary (despite the polls currently favouring the opposition). An election with big implications for the EU and its ability to get things done in the years ahead.

Quite possibly the best job in Europe’s think-tank world. CER is looking for its next director as the irreplaceable @cergrant.bsky.social steps down as director later this year.

The future of global trade is plurilateral: coalitions of countries advancing common interests where it suits them. A sobering thought for anyone who still believes in one rules-based system for all, but it reflects the world as it is and may be the only practical way to keep cooperation alive.

Rachel Reeves warned that more than warm words are needed to woo the EU Bloc will not budge on granting UK greater access to its markets unless Labour accepts greater obligations, say industry analysts

@antonspisak.bsky.social said that while it was helpful for Reeves to acknowledge the cost of Brexit, unless the Labour govt softened its manifesto red lines, deeper economic integration was off the table, meaning the gains for the UK economy would be “relatively small”.

www.ft.com/content/c7eb...

Another totally normal day in the life of the Trump administration. A Treasury order that permits the sales of Russian oil, including from the Kremlin’s shadow fleet.

Such a dismal tale about the UK govt: so obsessed w competing with far-right to keep out foreigners that it won’t let in the brightest & best from war-torn countries even when they’re hand-picked by the FCDO, lest they ask to stay. Soft power sacrificed, but how many Reform voters will it convert?

How to build and maintain lasting public support for increased defence spending in Europe?

It’s a key challenge that will reshape electoral politics in Europe in the years to come, but thankfully @armida.bsky.social offers some sensible and practical ideas for what can be done today.

Timely piece from @armida.bsky.social : in an increasingly dangerous security environment, where the US is a less & less reliable ally, European governments will have to find more money for defence - but can they do that without losing power?

On the plus side, imports into China have also surged. This seems to be thanks to increased crude oil shipments rather than industrial goods.

Mind-boggling figures on Chinese goods exports for the first two months of this year. Up 21.8% on the previous year.

The reasons for this appear to be the forthcoming deadline for export tax rebates on solar panels and batteries. China's industrial policy in one chart!

It's good that the UK govt is consulting businesses early on, rather than keeping them in the dark until negotiated legal texts are released.

I'd expect a draft text, based on the agreement in principle, to be presented at the next UK-EU summit. Probably in early July.

The UK govt has said that the SPS agreement would come into effect from "mid-2027". That means both concluding the negotiations and passing the necessary domestic implementing legislation by end of this year, to give businesses a bit time to adapt. This is a lot of work, but ambition is welcome.

The fact that the UK govt has released this list means that it has effectively been "locked" in the negotiating room with the Commission. The govt wouldn't expect it to change.

The negotiations are now focused on a) discussing exceptions, b) safeguards, and c) the mechanics of aligning in UK law.

The clearest indication yet of how extensive the UK-EU SPS agreement will be. Covers almost everything.

It also shows you where the current differences between the UK and EU lie (ie, what isn't included on the list): precision breeding/NGTs, veterinary meds, and (to a lesser extent) animal welfare.

The impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.

New research by me @jdportes.bsky.social: we find that the end of free movement and the new immigration regime rather modestly raised the number of foreign-born workers in Britain – by about 200,000 in 2024. Thread. www.cer.eu/insights/imp...

Sharp analysis by @sandertordoir.bsky.social @james-r-green.bsky.social on how Chinese tech investment in Europe is shifting and EU policy struggling to keep up.

Plenty of lessons for EU policymakers as they revisit FDI screening and ask themselves some tricky questions about Europe's openness.