MacroEdge is here!

@macroedgeres.bsky.social

It is indeed. Lots of product sitting on the market

We have more new homes for sale as of Feb. Than we did in December of 2007. 500,000 and counting!

Still works just fine

Sums up modern times

Thats wild its 1/3 of assets.

1/2

Student loans are now more than $1.5 trillion and represent 33.5% of the Federal government’s total assets. 👇🏼

When I was in college in the early 90s, I personally knew two people whose parents paid all their expenses for college but took out student loans to buy themselves new cars.

🙏

Lennar recently reported their lowest margin in ten years. My US Homebuilding Situation index saw it coming.

Add to the mix a rare negative retail sales print.

Better than Kool Aid

Property rights (real and intellectual) are under a lot of pressure these days.

Real Estate Roundup A rarity for sale

Frank Lloyd Wright timeshare?

open.substack.com/pub/mrawsumb...

It's a set of indicices I created and track. Day one is the first day the federal reserve raises rates. The cycle ends when rates bottom again. We are bouncing between 10-90 % increase in claims since March 2022.

4 charts showing the price of bacon, eggs, white bread and coffee. Indexed to federal funds rates. All above previous cycles.

Hi. Bacon, Eggs and Toast. Priced in federal funds rate cyle indexing. Eggs!

Initial unemployment claims, not seasonally adjusted, indexed to federal funds rate. Above mean and median of rate cycles

Hi. Here's a look at inital unemployment claims. Already above mean/median. The next 12-20 weeks we should see a spike again. Tarrifs will most likely alter/destroy demand. If both those happen inflation will recede, but then we'll have a host of other problems.

Initian unemployment claims, not seasonally adjusted, measured by federal funds cycle. Claims are well above the mean and median of cycles and approaching 21st century recessionary levels.

Hello. They aren't as low as they seem. And by the time they are "high" recession will be over. It's about timing the situation.

Thank you so much!

Thank you very much! Glad to be here, and greatly appreciate the kind support

Thank you my friend 🙏

The 16 cycles of Federal Funds Effective rates

Hello. I'm here to mostly discuss economics.