German businesses are losing interest in the US as an investment destination and looking to China instead

Plans to invest in North America down from 48 to 44%, for China 34 from 31%, German Chamber of Commerce survey shows

Much of this is electoral expediency: in short, European voters increasingly dislike Trump, and the right is following them.

Take the Hungarian election: 85% of Tisza voters wanted a different relationship with the US.

ecfr.eu/article/why-...

The European right is pivoting away from America Electoral logic is driving a shift as polls lay bare European disgust at the US administration

Thanks indeed to @financialtimes.com for publishing me on the anti-US turn of the European right. From moderate conservatives to nationalist radicals, it is nimbly shifting towards a politics of autonomy. The centre and left must move fast - or risk being outflanked.

www.ft.com/content/cba2...

There’s a lot that is horrible and stupid about the war with Iran but if Donald Trump’s misbegotten military adventurism accelerates the green transition it will be deeply, deeply funny.

"Sweden agreed with the BND, Germany’s foreign intelligence agency, that Russia was understating its budget deficit by $30bn, and had also noticed some financial indicators that could point to a future banking crisis" www.ft.com/content/04a9...

First amendment FTW

EU hopes to unblock Ukraine loan within 48 hours | Euractiv "I have received indications that Ukraine is ready to restore the oil transfer via the Druzhba pipeline," Orbán wrote

Both oil and money could be about to flow...

EU hopes to unblock Ukraine loan within 48 hours - EURACTIV

www.euractiv.com/news/eu-hope...

The rupture: how Europe fell out of love with America Many believed the transatlantic alliance could weather another term of Trump, but a year and a half on those hopes have largely faded.

The rupture: how Europe fell out of love with America

A long read from me from our weekend paper

Exclusive | EU to cut funding for Chinese inverters in change of tack from Brussels Without fanfare, Brussels will stop funding for projects that use the Chinese-made devices as part of a ‘do more, say less’ strategy.

Exclusive: EU to stop funding EU projects with Chinese inverters, as grandstanding on Beijing gives way to quiet offensive

My report on a quiet decision taken by von der Leyen and her college that suggests the work of de-risking continues apace

"Sudan is facing a clear example of a multifaceted, manmade hunger crisis, driven by violence, mass displacement, destruction of infrastructure, restricted access to resources, and high food prices," writes @foodwater.csis.org.

More: https://www.csis.org/analysis/sudan-war-10-charts

The History of Russian Feminism with Julia Loffe | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts Max and Maria are joined by journalist and author Julia Ioffe to discuss her recent book, Motherland: A Feminist History of Modern Russia, from Revolution to Autocracy.

In our latest @erep.csis.org Russian Roulette episode, together with @maxbergmann.bsky.social, we speak with @juliaioffe.bsky.social Ioffe about her new book, "Motherland," which is a fascinating history of feminism and the role of women in Soviet and Russian society.

A Conversation with WTO Director General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala | The Futures Summit | CSIS Events CSIS welcomes WTO Director General Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala for a discussion on what a reformed WTO could look like - one that integrates trade with global health, climate action, and gender equity.

ICYMI | The CSIS Global Development Department welcomed Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the WTO, for a conversation on how the WTO can navigate geopolitical shocks and spearhead mindset shifts to ensure inclusivity.

Watch: https://bit.ly/3O2V9Ao

What nonsense. All of it.

Germany insisted on delaying phase out of combustion engine. Iran war caused energy shock, et voilà:

BYD was one of the fastest-growing brands in Germany in Q1, with a 135% rise in purchase queries for the Chinese EV heavyweight during that period.

www.reuters.com/busi...

Great conversation with the great Julia Ioffe.

LFG

LFG

You can't simultaneously lament the fall of the USSR and be a minimally credible anti-imperialist. You just can't. The USSR was an empire and it was brought down by anti-imperialist, local liberation movements and mobilization. In addition,...

This is the dumbest fight and more evidence of NATO’s brain death. After all, NATO’s done such an amazing job not coordinating defense procurement.

Clearly NATO just wants to use the summit to promise arms deals to Trump.

Orban-proofing the EU How the leader of a small, poor country held such sway over the bloc

I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Will Orban’s Defeat Transform Europe? | State of Play | CSIS Podcasts Donatienne Ruy joins Will to discuss Péter Magyar’s landslide victory and if this will be a game changer for Europe.

Prime Minister Victor Orban lost the Hungarian elections after 16 years in power. @erep.csis.org's Donatienne Ruy joins @willtodman.bsky.social to discuss what this means for Hungary’s relationship with the EU, and whether this will be a game-changer for Europe.

Listen: https://bit.ly/4dKJMaE

Exclusive | Europe Is Accelerating a NATO Fallback Plan in Case Trump Pulls Out The Continent is drawing up a contingency for greater European involvement as tensions rise over the Iran war.

Good that Europe recognizes it has a problem. But this just seems like some people talking at the bar... "The plans—advancing informally through side discussions and over dinner meetings in and around the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." Very unclear what this means
www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Preparing for the Consequences of Collapse in Cuba CSIS experts explore the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Cuba, and lay out recommendations for the United States and international community to address growing need on the island.

"Current reports suggest the United States is more interested in pursuing a strategy of regime management, not wholesale regime change, in Cuba," writes the CSIS Americas Program.

Read more: www.csis.org/analysis/preparing-conse...

The welfare of the animals???

It’s really amazing how bad Berlin is when it comes strategic thinking. Yet by not empowering the EU on defense this is the country that Eastern Europe is relying on. 😬

A huge pleasure to be in Barcelona with the great think tank @cidobbarcelona.bsky.social. Thanks to @polmorillas.bsky.social for hosting me.

“If humiliating concessions are going to have to be made, I’d prefer the foreign secretary to make them”…

International politics… never easy.

“Yes, Prime Minister - Channel Tunnel jurisdiction”.

youtu.be/iDan7_4g8R4?...

Great time for me to be writing a book on this!

The Hungarian election is just a huge vibe shift for the EU. The perpetual narrative in the US and globally was the far-right is obviously coming to destroy the EU. But the massive defeat of Orban (should) change the narrative. And raise the question of the EU isn’t doomed… where is it headed?

Great time for me to be writing a book on this!