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Posts by Jonathan McDowell

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A video posted by a user on X showing a reentry was reportedly taken in the Maldives at 0355-0400 UTC Apr 20. It's possible it shows the SpaceMobile
BlueBird 7 reentry, although the SpaceForce TLE says this time was 25 min too early to be BB7, so I don't regard it as confirmed.

4 minutes ago 1 0 0 0

The Progress MS-32 cargo ship undocked from the aft port on Zvezda at 2208 UTC Apr 20. The deorbit burn was due to occur at 0114 UTC Apr 21 with reentry expected over the S Pacific at 0205 UTC.

10 hours ago 24 2 0 0
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1 day ago 13 6 0 1

Nope, seems that 2nd stage relit but one engine thrust was low,
and this is confirmed by Dave Limp of BO on X.

15 hours ago 2 1 1 0

No

16 hours ago 1 0 0 0

DEORBIT - Space Force just issued a decay notice for BlueBird 7, saying it reentered on Apr 20 (with no further details)

16 hours ago 54 15 3 1

Well this is REALLY WEIRD. Space Force just issued another BB7 orbit with an epoch of 1235 UTC yesterday and a nominal orbit of 455 x 462 km x 49.5 deg. I suspect this orbit is BOGUS and is a `search orbit' not based on real measurements that slipped through by accident

18 hours ago 37 4 1 0
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The New Glenn second stage hasn't been cataloged yet , wondering where it is (possible what they are tracking is stage 2 and not the payload!)

1 day ago 40 2 1 0

A second orbit dataset from SpaceForce for the BlueBird-7 sat shows it in a 265 x 485 km x 43.0 deg orbit, indicating that the upper stage delivered about 1000 m/s, mostly changing orbital inclination. This is about half the dV that would have been needed for the target orbit

1 day ago 47 12 2 0

The times seem wrong here. Per the cam they are 0305 and 0435 - if these times are HST per the caption that's 1305 and 1435 UTC, which is T+1h40m and T+3h10m. Even the first of these is afer NG3 should have stopped doing anything. I don't know what these are but I don't think they are New Glenn

1 day ago 1 0 1 0

Still waiting for tracking data on the second stage.

1 day ago 3 0 1 0

Sorry but this looks like a still from a sitcom

1 day ago 8 0 0 0

ASTS confirms unrecoverable failure but without any specific orbital parameters www.businesswire.com/news/home/20...

1 day ago 50 7 2 2

China's Daqi-2 satellite cataloged in a 682 x 689 km x 98.3 deg orbit in 1025 LTDN orbit plane.
The Qianfan 07 orbits are now out, showing 800 x 820 km x 89.0 deg deployment orbits as expected.

1 day ago 23 1 0 0
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No, target orbit was LEO at 49 deg

1 day ago 1 0 0 0

LAUNCH at 1603 UTC Apr 19 of Starlink Group 17-22 from Vandenberg

1 day ago 18 0 0 0

The next TLE set for this object, hopefully later today, will be definitive (absent any clarifying statement from Blue or ASTS). At this point we can still hold out some hope for a new orbit set at a later epoch time with a higher orbit. To be clear, I am not optimistic. But it's prudent to wait.

1 day ago 50 2 2 0

The BlueOrigin/AST_SpaceMobile
launch has been tracked by Space Force as catalog 68765, 2026-85A, in a 154 x 494 km x 36.1 deg orbit. Epoch is 1138 UTC which is the time of SECO-1, so this may not be the final orbit. (If it is, then they are indeed toast).

1 day ago 78 9 2 5

Right? There was a day when I'd get up in the middle of the night for a launch like this, but I'm getting too old for that

1 day ago 7 0 0 0

Best estimate for the SECO-1 orbit given the slow observed decrease in altitude in the webcast is somewhere in the range of 164 x 380 km to 116 x 420km, depending on flight path angle at cutoff which was somewhere in the 0 to -1 degree range.
Still waiting for SECO-2 data.

1 day ago 44 3 3 1

LAUNCH at 1125 UTC Apr 19 of New Glenn flight 3 with AST SpaceMobile-007 from Canaveral. Second stage underperformance and lower than planned final orbit, but still waiting for Space Force tracking data for details

1 day ago 40 2 0 0

Astronauts Zhang L. and Wu F. made a spacewalk from the Chinese Space Station on Apr 16
from about 1206 UTC to 1736 UTC

3 days ago 43 3 0 0

LAUNCH at 0410 UTC Apr 17 of a CZ-4C from Jiuquan with the Daqi-2 atmospheric research satellite

3 days ago 22 0 0 0
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LAUNCH at about 2318 UTC Apr 16 of one or more Kosmos satellites by Soyuz-2-1b from Plesetsk to a 457 x 547 km x 98.3 deg orbit

4 days ago 29 1 1 1

Of course lunar based weapons are directly against the Outer Space Treaty, not that that will stop these guys

4 days ago 6 0 0 0
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CelesTrak has 18 SDS GP data for 90 objects from the Transporter-16 mission, launched on Mar 30. We have set up a special GROUP to help those on this mission work to identify their satellites: celestrak.org/NORAD/elemen....

5 days ago 11 2 0 0
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Iran used Chinese spy satellite to target US bases Leaked documents show IRGC secretly acquired system and used it to guide strikes during war in March

TEE-01B (2024-110A) sold by China's Mumei to the IRGC in 2024 Sep, according to the FT www.ft.com/content/1fdd...

5 days ago 23 2 0 0

Not sure... perhaps GMAT has the capability?

5 days ago 1 0 1 0
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Mind the Gap Ireland is the second richest country in Europe, and this week a single protest shut it down. Here's why.

Fascinating analysis of modern Ireland by Sinead O'Sullivan (who I know via her space policy work) www.butthistime.com/p/mind-the-gap

5 days ago 23 7 1 1

Sounds like the intent is more ABM that ASAT, but also sounds as if the original source doesn't entirely know what he's talking about

5 days ago 9 0 2 0