For @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, I spoke with Sam Gindin about the auto industry in Canada

War on Iran | Phenomenal World The bombardment of Iran has caused an enormous commodity-supply shock, prompting an accelerated global rush to greener energy sources.

NEW: Iran is the seventh country to undergo US military intervention in the first 15 months of Trump’s presidency; 5 of 7 are rich in oil

Oil War or not...the disruption will accelerate end of US hegemony
@katemac.bsky.social & I @phenomenalworld.bsky.social
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

Superdependence | Sam Gindin The Canadian auto industry is in a state of existential crisis, facing new US tariffs and pressures. What does this mean for organized labor?

"Today, Toyota and Honda are the two top assemblers in Canada.  Last year Toyota alone actually assembled more vehicles than GM, Ford, and Chrysler combined."

On the Canadian auto industry: Sam Gindin in conversation with PW editor Andrew Elrod.

www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/s...

Superdependence | Sam Gindin The Canadian auto industry is in a state of existential crisis, facing new US tariffs and pressures. What does this mean for organized labor?

"As the equivalent of the global South right next door, Mexico gives North American companies like GM, Ford, and Stellantis a way to respond to Asian competition."

NEW from PW: Andrew Elrod talks with Sam Gindin about the Canadian auto industry www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/s...

Artigo do economista Rodrigo Toneto faz balanço da política econômica em Lula III

Artigo bem escrito e irretocável sobre a gestão de Haddad no ministério da fazenda, marcada pela reconstrução fiscal e tributária e o slogan “o pobre no orçamento e o rico pagando imposto”.

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

Democracia fiscal | Rodrigo Toneto Reforma tributária de Haddad reduz o imposto de 15 milhões de brasileiros aumentando a oneração tributária de 140 mil super-ricos.

"Fernando Haddad deixa a Fazenda tendo cumprido o que para muitos, em 2022, parecia improvável: recolocou o pobre no orçamento e, pela primeira vez, colocou os super-ricos no imposto de renda"

NOVO na PW: Rodrigo Toneto avalia a gestão econômica de Haddad

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

War and Succession | Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi The appointment of Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei reflects the shifting balance of power in wartime Iran.

My new article on @phenomenalworld.bsky.social

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

The Venezuela Illusion | Kayhan Valadbaygi Iran’s security structure ensures that the US will struggle to contain the dynamic of military escalation or determine its political outcomes.

In my new piece for @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, I examine Washington’s growing interest in a Venezuelan-style “regime management” approach and explain why Iran does not fit this model. (1/3)

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

War and Succession | Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi The appointment of Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei reflects the shifting balance of power in wartime Iran.

“The decapitation of the Iranian leadership has not produced capitulation. It has consolidated power in the hands of a younger and more militant generation.”

@eskandarsadeghi.bsky.social on Mojtaba Khamenei

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/war...

A aposta do Hezbollah | Nasser Elamine A decisão do partido de voltar a enfrentar o exército israelense marca uma reorientação estratégica após a dura derrota de 2024.

Novo na PW:

@nasserelamine.bsky.social analisa a entrada do Hezbollah no conflito EUA-Israel e Irã

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

Como quem faz bicicletas | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Uma análise das comparações de custo entre drones iranianos e armamentos americanos para entender o preço da continuação da guerra.

Novo na PW:

@yarbatman.bsky.social examina a simples arma iraniana que lançou a economia mundial em desordem: o drone kamikaze Shahed-136

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

A ilusão da Venezuela | Kayhan Valadbaygi A arquitetura de segurança do Irã torna difícil para os Estados Unidos conter a escalada militar ou moldar seus resultados políticos.

Novo na PW:

@kayhanvaladbaygi.bsky.social explica como a estratégia estadunidense de "gerenciamento de regime" utilizada na Venezuela não se aplica ao caso do Irã

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/analis...

Iran in Revolt | Kayhan Valadbaygi Deep political-economic transformations are causing recurrent waves of unrest, with no long-term solution in sight.

From January, also by @kayhanvaladbaygi.bsky.social, on the transformations, divisions, and resilience of Iran’s “regime-protective architecture.”

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/ira...

The Venezuela Illusion | Kayhan Valadbaygi Iran’s security structure ensures that the US will struggle to contain the dynamic of military escalation or determine its political outcomes.

“The more the Trump administration tries to remake the Iranian power structure, the more cohesive it becomes. It’s regime-protective architecture designed to deflect this kind of threat.”

@kayhanvaladbaygi.bsky.social on regime change fantasies in Iran

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

Hezbollah's Gamble | Nasser Elamine The party's decision to reengage the Israeli army is a strategic reorientation after the bruising defeat of 2024.

“Hezbollah’s actions since March 2 should be understood as a major, possibly even existential, gamble: a bid to reclaim territories occupied by Israel, and the party’s legacy following the 2024 defeat.”

@nasserelamine.bsky.social on Israel, Iran, and Lebanon

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/hez...

Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone

Fascinating piece in @phenomenalworld.bsky.social by @yarbatman.bsky.social on the actual production costs of the Shahed-136:

Hezbollah's Gamble | Nasser Elamine The party's decision to reengage the Israeli army is a strategic reorientation after the bruising defeat of 2024.

“Hezbollah’s actions since March 2 should be understood as a major, possibly even existential, gamble: a bid to reclaim territories occupied by Israel, and the party’s legacy following the 2024 defeat.”

@nasserelamine.bsky.social on Israel, Iran, and Lebanon

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/hez...

Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone

Cheap drones are "democratizing" massive destruction, revolutionizing war.

Since modern life relies on vulnerable infrastructure, "mutually assured destruction" is universal now.

Forget nukes. Anyone can smash other countries' access to energy & water.

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone

Good read on Iranian drones and their production.

Drones Like Bicycles:

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone

The Shahed-136 is a cheap weapon. But it’s much cheaper than most reports suggest.

In this new analysis, @yarbatman.bsky.social compares production costs in the US and Iran to come up with a better estimate for the cost of a Shahed: $7,000.

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Drones Like Bicycles | Esfandyar Batmanghelidj Assessing the cost of a Shahed kamikaze drone

“The US and Israel have tried to try to make the conduct of war too ‘expensive’ for Iran. As this war of choice engulfs the region and the global economy, it is imperative to understand how ‘cheap’ a war can now be.”

@yarbatman.bsky.social on the Shahed-136

www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

“…it’s very hard to observe China’s petroleum stocks because they don’t like to report them…The first rule about the strategic petroleum reserve in China is you don’t talk about strategic petroleum reserve…”

- @alexbhturnbull.bsky.social

www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/o...

Conscious Uncoupling | Phenomenal World Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has declared a "rupture" in the liberal order. Can US allies organize themselves apart from the US?

Can US maintain European & East Asian buy-in for an extended Iran War?

The pain will multiply:energy, food,commodities,refugees, chips, AI..

Coalition mgmt during wartime is very hard because countries face unequal burdens & have their own domestic politics
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/con...

A World Without Illusions | Celso Amorim Lula's Chief Advisor discusses the assault on Iran, the concept of multipolarity, and how Brazil can defend its sovereignty in an age of imperial conflict.

“Sectors of Brazilian society previously uninterested in defense have begun to believe we need to acquire deterrence capability. Venezuela shows this is no simple task. But it is a necessary one.”

Lula’s Chief Advisor Celso Amorim on the new world disorder

www.phenomenalworld.org/interviews/a...

Benjamin Y. Fong | Apotheosis of Point of Sale Data The future of e-commerce at Amazon rests on the increasingly complex logistics of same-day delivery—and the labor costs these entail.

And at @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, Benjamin Fong looks at the increasingly complex logistics of Amazon’s same-day delivery expansion.

Mundo em carne viva | Celso Amorim Ex-chanceler e conselheiro internacional de Lula avalia o momento geopolítico atual e comenta a invasão da Venezuela, a guerra no Irã e o lugar do Brasil nesse cenário

"As consequências ainda são difíceis de mensurar, mas é pouco plausível supor resultados de baixo custo, considerando as dimensões demográficas, históricas e políticas do Irã"

Entrevista com Celso Amorim, ex-chanceler e conselheiro internacional de Lula

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/entrev...

It's Amazon's world. Benjamin Y. Fong continues his wonderful journey to reveal how we're just living in it. The latest at Phenomenal World: The Apotheosis of Point of Sale Data www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/the...

After the Rent Freeze | JW Mason The cost of affordable housing in New York City

This is focused on NY, but is broadly applicable. Best analysis of housing costs I have ever seen. Let’s make housing affordable. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aft...

Finance in the Dark | Lenore Palladino | Finance in the Dark An opaque sector is reshaping the US. Only ambitious regulatory reform can check its power.

Over at @phenomenalworld.bsky.social, @lenorepalladino.bsky.social explains how private credit has become the unregulated industry at the heart of the American economy and how we might address this looming crisis.

Guerras do petróleo | Rafael Ramírez Análise dos recursos energéticos da Venezuela como terreno de disputa, das nacionalizações de Chávez ao sequestro de Maduro.

Uma conversa com Rafael Ramírez, membro mais longevo do gabinete de Chávez e ex-presidente da PDVSA

www.phenomenalworld.org/pt-br/entrev...