"they respond only to the text “Artificial Intelligence“ plus whatever it’s paired against" is right - the text in the chart is exactly what they see

No, we do conjoint importance to track issue importance over time across a set of ~40 issues - the interpretation of the percentages is "What fraction of people pick issue X when put against another random issue"

AI Is Colliding With America’s Affordability Crisis Sign up to receive Blue Rose Research's Odd Lots A.I. Presentation

Read all of the new research from Blue Rose Research here + check out the episode when it drops!

data.blueroseresearch.org/odd-lots

When we tested videos on these themes, AI-specific populism - messages that address the future impact of AI in bold, populist terms - performed at the top compared with every other topic we've tested in moving voters toward Democrats.

Voters want jobs, not checks - "creating good-paying jobs" beats "direct income support" 54-17 as the preferred approach to AI displacement.

And voters want a tax specifically on companies that profit from AI to pay for it (over a wealth tax) 49-27.

Even among Trump voters, helping workers who lose jobs to AI beats giving tech companies incentives to keep innovating 50% to 24%.

Overall it's 58-20.

The "everything will be fine" message is dead on arrival with voters.

When leaders in government and tech say "AI will not cause widespread job losses" - net trust is -41.

When they say "AI will create economic productivity that benefits everyone" - net trust is -20.

Voters are extremely concerned about the impact of AI:

79% are concerned the government doesn't have a plan to protect workers from AI job losses. 77% are concerned about industries being eliminated.

56% are worried about personally losing their job.

AI is hitting at a time when 61% of Americans say life has gotten less affordable in the last year, only 25% feel confident in their financial future, and only 34% say they have a secure job.

Not a great starting place for major disruption to the labor market.

Excited to be on Odd Lots to talk about the politics of AI!

AI today is less important than it will ever be.

Over the past year, AI rose in issue importance faster than any issue we track — it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care, and abortion.

Jewish/Muslim segregation in Israel is unlike anything seen anywhere in the US within living memory.

Israeli Jews are ~7x more likely to have zero Muslim neighbors than white Americans are to have zero Black neighbors — for Israeli Muslims vs Black Americans, it's ~78x.

And some pretty striking discrepancies of how Denmark residents view the US vs China and Russia.

Some fun tidbits here to see how much more likely Danish people are to say they think their country is heading in the right direction and that they trust the media, though some similar pessimistic economic outlooks we’re seeing here.

New poll of Denmark residents (N=1,200; Jan 27–Feb 2).

Trump’s Greenland push has basically unified the entire country against him.

No huge surprise, but a -94 approval rating amongst Danes is pretty impressive.

One of the insights of @davidshor.bsky.social is that a party or movement can take an unpopular issue and run with it and make it popular among its own voters, getting from 15% support to 45% support, it just can't get over 50% that way. (This is more or less happening re Venezuela.)

Do you support or oppose new AI data centers being built in your local community?

31% support, 44% oppose

Would you support or oppose new data centers if they lowered your property taxes by 10%?

59% support 18% oppose

We recently tested ~ a dozen public statements from a diverse set of Democratic elected officials on the murder of Renee Good and this was the top testing one

People don’t have a good sense for how much age varies geographically - the red areas are super old

When you ask Americans whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about AI, optimism beats pessimism by ~5 points.

The primary fault lines are age, gender, and race - young people, men, and racial minorities are the most optimistic about AI.

N=30,900 , fielded 12/1 to 12/10

I’m collecting more data on gender of first child to address this - give me a couple weeks and I’ll update

I omitted no kids from both regressions, yeah.

But just started collecting some more data so should be able to check soon.

I just started collecting gender of first child so will be fun to see!

Ah, I see what you’re saying. I can ask a bunch of people what the gender of their first child was and report back in a bit.

VoteWithMe Can Help You Find Your Team — Vote Captain First up in our series on tech tools for Vote Captains, we talk to the VoteWithMe team! VoteWithMe is an app that helps identify friends and contacts that could use an extra push to vote. Sarah Sull...

Other little known lore is that I made a relational organizing app called VoteWithMe that was used by hundreds of thousands of people!

Tons of critics lazily assuming I know nothing about canvassing.

www.votecaptain.org/blog/2018/10...

I'm collecting more data so I can restrict to folks with one kid but this is what I get when I restrict to 1+2

bsky.app/profile/davi...

It's just very funny to be lectured on the hyper specific niche that I spent a decade in by people who have only consumed pro-canvassing propaganda that *I personally was involved in helping craft*

What I find annoying about the push-back I've gotten on this is that I have personally organized and analyzed multiple million-person-plus canvassing experiments as part of my job.

bsky.app/profile/davi...

Just 1 is noisier ofc but broadly looks similar

This is what you get when you restrict to 1-2 kids