Posts by Volumeleaders
(Yes, I’m aware of the war/chaos/Armageddon narrative. But positioning changes before the narrative does.)
volumeleaders.com/re...
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#USO - #12 and #59 present best as dip buys. #39 offsets with #59 and presents best as an exit. #40 also presents best as an exit.
Doesn’t mean price can’t go higher later.
Doesn’t mean we can’t get some overshoot either.
But a pullback/reversal early next week is my best guess.
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#IYT - Largest trade since April 2008. $75.84 is the line in the sand.
Additional context on the site.
www.volumeleaders.co...
#XLE - This ticker is one of 12 free tickers on VL. No sub required. No strings. Just free data if you're willing to go take a look.
Today we got the largest trade since 2021.
Breadth approaching wash-out levels
• Mega-cap leadership cracks while capital rotates into industrials, energy, and real economy plays
• OPEX-fueled volatility explodes with record closing auction volume - positioning reset appears underway
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• Oil shock intensifies as Middle East conflict disrupts ~7–8% of global supply, crude pushing toward triple digits
• Yields rip higher (10Y ~4.4%) as inflation fears reprice the entire curve
• S&P breaks its 200-day for the first time in months - regime shift or bear trap?
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Issue 84 of Market Momentum is available.
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Escalation, inflation pressure, and a market starting to fracture beneath the surface - here’s what’s driving the tape right now:
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#KMB - Largest trade since inception.
$SPY, $QQQ - Quick stats on today's OPEX.
2nd largest OPEX in history, ranking just below Dec 2025 and above Sept 2025.
#1 Trades - 164
#1 Clusters - 130
Top-10 Trades - 1,227
Top-10 Clusters - 937
Plenty to review this weekend if you're so inclined.
I don't suspect they went through all this trouble just to put in a lasting low a hair below the bottom of the box to start another leg up.
I think there's further to go. Time will tell.
Additional context on the site.
volumeleaders.com/re...
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There are going to be bounces (perhaps as soon as Monday), but institutions spent an awful lot of time here, and traded an awful lot of volume during that time.
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#SPY, #QQQ, #VOO, #IVV - For the last six months, institutions have been distributing in this six-month range. Today, price broke down below it.
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#IUSG (Growth) - The five largest trades at the four most important highs.
Top holdings include #NVDA, #AAPL, #MSFT, #GOOGL
#BP - Largest trade since inception at the close.
#RSP - Not sure how much longer this level is going to hold. About 20% of the top-100 trades are above price. This suggests those positions are not being defended by institutions, which is bearish in the near term.
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#IYZ (Telecom) - Largest trade since 2022. Top holdings include $CSCO, $Z, $T
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Feb 2020, Nov 2020, 2024 highs, 2026 highs.
It's a small sample size, and the only commonality in each cluster is that price was trading at ATH at the time. Nov 2020 resolved up, the other two did not. I don't think this one does either.
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The majority of top-100 ranked trades in #SPY are market-closing prints at 4pm on the public exchange. However, filtering for only dark pool trades that were ranked in the top-100 at the time of their arrival, there are four distinct areas in which institutions have engaged.
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