DC high temp stayed under 84°. $20 paid out.
Core PCE called it right. $5 more.
Slow week. Zero stress. Bot just does its thing.
These are my favorite kind of notifications.
predictandprofit.io #buildinpublic #passiveincome
How the bot works:
Fetch Kalshi weather prices
Download 62 weather simulations
Calculate true probability
If market says 40% & our math says 85%, we buy.
It’s statistical arbitrage. I open-sourced the code so you can run it too. predictandprofit.io #kalshi #python
30 years of data engineering taught me one thing: the best systems are boring and run quietly in the background. I packed that enterprise mindset into a Python bot that trades on Kalshi for me. Enterprise-grade architecture, solopreneur freedom. predictandprofit.io #python #buildinpublic
With prediction markets going mainstream, new traders treat Kalshi like a sportsbook. They look out the window and guess. If you're trading weather on vibes against a Python bot armed with a 62-member atmospheric dataset... thanks for the liquidity. predictandprofit.io #predictionmarkets
Everyone's building trading bots with AI. I went the other way. ChatGPT can't predict if Chicago hits 80F tomorrow, but NOAA's supercomputers can. My bot uses a 62-member ensemble weather model. No AI hype, just heavy stats and API calls. predictandprofit.io #weathertrading #kalshi
The trading bro stereotype: 6 monitors, screaming at candlestick charts.
My reality at 60: One monitor, a sleeping kitten on my desk, and a Python script silently parsing 62 weather simulations to trade on Kalshi.
Passive income shouldn't spike your blood pressure.
predictandprofit.io #algotrading
Fee filter kills most of them. Kalshi fees peak
at 50 cents -- exactly where most trades cluster.
Edge looks real until you run the math.
Happy to connect! Always good to find people who
measure avoided mistakes over activity.
30ms RSA lag is negligible on 5 min scan cycles.
Fee drag is handled by filtering out any trade where
expected fee exceeds a set % of the edge before entry.
Ensemble spread is the signal. The fee filter is
what keeps it profitable.
Fee filter catches most rejects. Kalshi's fee hits
hardest at 50 cents -- right where most trades sit.
Success metric I care about most: is the reject
rate stable? A sudden drop means a filter broke,
not a better market.
My wife asked what I was working on. I explained ensemble spread, Kalshi fee formulas, and RSA-PSS authentication. She went to bed. The bot kept running. We are both living our best lives.
predictandprofit.io
#solofounder #buildinpublic #passiveincome
Kalshi lets you trade on whether NYC hits 75F tomorrow. It's CFTC-regulated, fully legal, and most traders price it with vibes. A weather model with 62 simulations disagrees with vibes pretty often. That gap is the whole business.
predictandprofit.io
#weathertrading #kalshi
Robinhood just brought prediction markets to 25 million retail accounts -- all running on Kalshi infrastructure. Most of those people will guess. Some of us have a 62-member weather ensemble. Timing feels pretty good.
predictandprofit.io
#kalshi #predictionmarkets
My bot rejected 47 potential trades last week and placed 3. Most people would call that a slow week. I call it the strategy working exactly as designed. Boring is underrated.
predictandprofit.io
#algotrading #buildinpublic #kalshi
POST 3
Bot ran last night while I watched TV with
my wife and our kittens.
Found a gap. Placed a trade. Zero effort.
That's the whole dream.
predictandprofit.io
#passiveincome #buildinpublic #indiemaker
POST 2
I'm 60. Still had an idea sitting in my head
I kept putting off.
Last month I stopped waiting.
What's yours?
predictandprofit.io
#nevertooolate #buildinpublic #solofounder
POST 1
I spent 30 years writing code for big corporations.
Last month I finally wrote some for myself.
Built a little bot that watches weather forecasts
and trades on Kalshi when it spots something the
market missed.
Never too late to build your own thing.
predictandprofit.io
#kalshi
Can you actually make money on prediction markets?
Yes -- but only if you have a real data edge.
We built Predict & Profit to share exactly that.
Not get rich quick. Get good slowly.
#Kalshi #TradingBot
Started on Kalshi. Now expanding to IB ForecastTrader
(zero commission) and positioning on Polymarket as US
access opens up.
Same bot. More markets. More arbitrage opportunities.
#ForecastTrader #Polymarket
Most people treat prediction markets like a casino.
We treat them like a research problem.
GFS ensemble weather data scored against live Kalshi prices.
When the model is confident and the market isn't -- that's the entry.
No gut feels. Just signal vs. price.
#PredictionMarkets #Kalshi
Most people don't know you can legally trade on weather outcomes in the US. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market where you buy contracts on things like "Will NYC's high exceed 75F tomorrow?" Contracts pay $1 if yes, $0 if no.
#predictionmarkets #kalshi #trading
Built a Python bot that trades Kalshi weather markets using a 31-member ensemble weather model. When 23/31 simulations say yes and the market says 45%, that's the edge. Full source code + guides: predictandprofit.gumroad.com/l/predict-and-profit
#python #algotrading #buildinpublic #kalshi