Pelham123 is a white knuckler 😓

Roundy doesn't know much

Number one *scientific* priority in climate science is to figure out what causes El Nino.

#1 *technical* priority is to guide transition to alternative energy.

#1 wild goose chase is to sequester CO2

Peak oil people have become more analytical now and they don't follow the old school pure narratives of the Kunstler-types. They want the numbers to add up -- for example check the peakoilbarrel.com blog, which is almost all projections. Kunstler is not mathematically inclined

Forcing of NAO and MSL in the Baltic

Modeling LTE solutions from pukpr/GEM-LTE: GeoEnergyMath Laplaces Tidal Equation modeling and fitting software Warnemunde Mean Sea Level (#11 from PSMSL.org). Dashed lines are cross-validation intervals. North Atlantic Oscillation NAO (top) and Warnemunde MSL…

Minnesota Lakes Ice-Out Trends: Analyzing Earlier Dates Explore the trends in Minnesota's ice-out dates as warmer winters lead to earlier events, with detailed analysis and data insights.

Better yet. From Minnesota, ICE-OUT records -- much more diverse set of data.

geoenergymath.com/2026/01/27/m...

Hoyer Metric in LTE Model Fitting

Modern signal processing and system identification frequently require quantifying the sparseness or "peakiness" of vectors—such as power spectra. The Hoyer metric, introduced by Hoyer , is a widely adopted measure for this purpose, especially in the context of…

150,000 just in St Paul

Welker obviously reads the NY Daily News
bsky.app/profile/demo...

What is wrong with this reporting? Meet the Press was the same. Kristen Welker said "tens of thousands" of people protested yesterday. More like millions.

The mystery of El Nino

Google Gemini makes predictions on the next El Nino when prompted -- scroll to the end. There has ALWAYS been stratification in the ocean via the primary thermocline. The intensity of an El Nino or La Nina is dependent on the "tilt" of the thermocline across the equatorial…

Current status of research according to AI

explain the Pukite tidal theory The Pukite Tidal Theory, primarily developed by researcher Paul Pukite, proposes that long-period tidal forcing is the underlying driver for several major geophysical and atmospheric cycles that have previously been…

Remember that USA consumes 20 million barrels of oil per day but only extracts 13 million of crude per day from its territory.
Still a huge dependence on imported oil despite the claims of politicians such as Trump. Keeping the public ignorant.

Petrol has always been more expensive there, so expectations are different.

Claude Code Oil Shock Model

This took me all of a few minutes with Claude Code, given this prompt: create a convolution-based algorithm of the Oil Shock Model described in Mathematical GeoEnergy (Wiley, 2019). Add a pltting routine and keep hooks for parameterizing and comparing against empirical…

LLM logrolling in our time

To preface this post, there was at one time a regular column in the long-defunct humor magazine Spy called "Logrolling In Our Time". The column exposed reciprocal favor-trading in literary media where authors and critics provided mutual, suspicious endorsements. The…

Spectral details in Chandler Wobble and QBO

Using LLMs as peer-review devil's advocates for research findings can't hurt and can only help strengthen an argument. One of the common criticisms an LLM makes is that it will claim that a factor is "too weak" or insignificant to serve as a mechanism…

Peer review of peer review

Prompted Claude with this: This is a submitted contribution to ESD Ideas, a journal committed to presenting innovative ideas in geophysics, relayed in short form of a couple of pages. Provide a peer-review based on what value it may provide for future research. (note…

Some say it's like ASMR

Wind Distribution

I prompted the Gemini LLM with the following to see how well it would summarize with so little context: Familiar with the BesselK wind distribution model pioneered by Pukite et al in Mathematical GeoEnergy? The BesselK Wind Model: A Maximum Entropy Derivation In the study of wind…

When are #LLM, #ChatGPT, #Claude, #OpenAI, #Anthropic, #DeepSeek, #Grok, #Gemini, #Perplexity, #ML, #AI, #CoPilot, #Antigravity , #GammaAI, #Llama, #Mistral, #xAI, #Google, #Kimi, #Meta going to take this challenge on?
It will be a breakthrough in science discovery.

github.com/pukpr/Chandl...

All they do on TikTok is open tiny kiln ovens, inspect the pottery, and then break and toss it into the garbage bin.

Not going to make that much of a difference. All that does is change the frequency response. The forced response is likely the primary signal and the rest is an amplitude/phase filter.

Play around with differential equations here:

github.com/pukpr/Chandl...

Pairing of solar and lunar factors

A number of the Earth's geophysical behaviors characterized by cycles have both a solar and lunar basis. For the ubiquitous ocean tides, the magnitude of each factor are roughly the same -- rationalized by the fact that even though the sun is much more massive…

The perplexing Chandler wobble

I had heard that Perplexity was an LLM geared to scientific research, so I gave it this prompt: Explain the Chandler wobble as due to a stroboscopic driving force emerging from the nonlinear modulation of an impulsed annual signal with the periodic declination torque…

Geophysics is very interesting IMO but doesn't generate discussion on social media

Shale oil has tuned out to be a transient, pretty much meeting expectations of those who evaluated the reserve potential.

10y ago JS Wettlaufer wrote in a PRL editorial : “Climate Science: An Invitation for Physicists”

“New ideas will emerge from perspectives that come from the range of approaches used across all areas of physics. “
journals.aps.org/prl/abstract...

AI can create an open world from which to draw from

Certain things don't work for many people, such as loading a pic. Here I will try linking to my blog geoenergymath.com

It will give an error message:
Failed to load blob

So I delete the image, leaving just a link

Every time series featuring a measure related to sea-level or thermocline level has a striking relationship to long-period tidal cycles. Shouldn't be a surprise as no other equivalent forces available, yet the difficulty on doing nonlinear analysis has thwarted progress
pukpr.github.io/examples/mlr/