"Elon stealing money triggers a bank run" is a fun path to consider for blowing up the economy

Lmaoooooooo everyone and their mother talking about how “attractive” yields are at these levels.

For the MILLIONTH time. Yields need to start with a 7 or 8 handle to be compensated for being on the other side of the trade of a notorious grifter.

These dingdongs are juggling with sticks of dynamite.

• Al Overview A "forward iOS yield curve" refers to a graphical representation of market-im-plied future interest rates derived from current iOS (Apple) device prices, essentially showing the expected future returns on investing in an iOS device at different points in time, based on factors like depreciation and potential future price changes; it is a theoretical concept used to analyze the market perception of future value of iOS devices, similar to how a traditional yield curve reflects future interest rates for bonds across different maturities.

Hah the robots really are coming for your job

Humanitarian immigration decline to near zero (like in '17/'18) would make neutral payroll growth run rate below 100k per month given demographic trends.

The vibe from a lot of sell side analysts today - or at least those working for US institutions - is very much early summer 2016 ‘in the end they won’t leave the customs union and they’ll probably find a way to stay in the single market’.

A genuine hearty LOL at this www.ft.com/content/9cc3...

is the market really more terrified of missing out on Trump upside than facing up to the capex destruction semis are about to experience? only sign of hedging is gold ATH

I got deepseek 14B running locally on windows, at 7 tokens per sec on last gen gaming hardware. This model performs at par with OpenAI's pro $200/month service and is probably drawing a hundred watts max.

The AI capex bubble is toast

Trump doesn’t get a Fed appointment until Kugler’s board term is over 12 months from now. There are two other expiring board seats in this Presidential term. When you add in regional Fed voters, hard to see him capturing the FOMC.

Must be the bond vigilantes

Rachel Reeves is gonna get a big shock when the one person at the Treasury with a Bloomberg terminal eventually notices what has been happening in gilt markets

You gotta love the irony in macro. Ignore the banks -they blow themselves up. Worry about inflation being too low, it hits 50-year highs. Ask for fiscal stimulus, now you cant rein it in. Core euro lectures the periphery for a decade, now they're the ones with the shit economies & unstable politics.

lmfaooooooo

*POWELL: STATE OF FINANCIAL LITERACY IN CONGRESS IS MIXED

The last time South Korea declared martial law US securities settled T+5

VP thinks $ centrality is a burden that strengthens $; POTUS & UST want $ centrality 4 sanctions & surveillance, threaten tariffs against de$izers; consensus is sanctions strengthen $, worsening trade balance & import sub. efforts; but UST thinks strong $ reduces inflation impact of tariffs. Ok?

thanks vm

oh jeez — you got a source?

“should you hike into inflation caused by a supply shock” is one of those questions that is supposed to reveal whether CBs are operating in the space of substantive (will hikes help?) or merely procedural (inflation = hike) rationality imo

Villeroy trying to save his country from the fiscal brink…

The PCE-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure is out for October and it is 2.5%, up from 2.3% last month. This is the median of eight different measures over three different time horizons. (FWIW, this roughly tracks my sense of underlying inflation at the moment.)

PCE report days are a good reminder that this remains an income-driven expansion.

Household nominal wage growth is the strongest in decades which is fueling continued strength in nominal demand even though the savings rate is stable and borrowing is muted.

Thread.

1/5) Should we be worried about the deterioration in US labour market conditions? One important concept has been the #Sahm-Rule#. We look at it and argue in #MonthlyReport that US recessionary risks remain contained. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikatione...

For sure, they are walking into a trap — by the time the spot levels match their forecasts, the demand side of the economy will be in dire need of stimulation. German consumer confidence at lowest since May, just hit the tapes.

I read their reaction function pointing us to a 25bp cut but am inclined to agree that in hindsight this is likely to be a mistake.

Schnabel bringing the 🌶️, finally someone speaking truth to the market. Lane is essentially aligned with her.

EUR front-end trading poorly today and a surprising number of people asking “why?”… maybe the market actually flipped net long post PMI. Inflation data this week is pretty binary event; my lean is it comes in line and Dec ECB starts grinding back towards -25bps (currently -32bps).

The new public sector net financial liabilities target won’t be in effect until after the first spending review next year. That’s when we’ll know. I hope for her sake she’s right.

That’s probably why the put skew on TYs is so extreme…