@hausfath.bsky.social It looks like this is the E3 forecast. Correct? E3 is much higher than E1 or E2. Is 'the situation is evolving quickly' a good non-scientific summary of why? Is there a more scientific explanation? In other words - why are E1 & E2 under-estimating?
With the latest set of El Niño forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale 😯
+1.8°C above the pre-industrial baseline possible by winter! That’s what the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) estimates the global surface temperature anomaly will be by December, due in part to the strong El Niño boost… 1/
France passed a law requiring solar panels on every parking lot with more than 80 spaces.
Equals 10 nuclear reactors
Reduces heat island, shades cars
The US -- 800 million parking spaces. Most of them are uncovered asphalt sitting in direct sunlight.
Why aren't we doing this?
Build a good bike lane - it'll get used.
Rialto, Dublin. 14th April 2026
Uk apparently has a dilemma. Can only get aviation fuel from USA. "Stuck between a rock and a hard place". I don't know - How about just not flying?
Putting my theory of constraints hat on - those pictures are of people NOT voting. Many will give up & not return. Many people will be put off going at all. What is happening in rural areas (where Orban is more popular)? Before knowing what is happening need to know the throughput of voting booths
Cumulative area burnt by wildfire curves for the US showing 2026 starting off massively worse than any prior year
This seems suboptimal
Very informative (and scary) paper. Thank you. Is figure 3 accurate for numbers or just illustrative of a bifurcation? That is, by eye bifurcation happens at just below 10Sv. If recent value of 15Sv is correct (down from 20Sv) it is very close. Also means 'current climate' point needs updating!!
Our original 2015 paper is this: www.nature.com/articles/ncl...
And an accessible introduction to the Atlantic overturning circulation known as #AMOC for non-experts can be read here:
tos.org/oceanography...
Measurements by buoys at four latitudes in the western Atlantic provide the strongest evidence yet that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening
A section of the roof at Terminal 3 of Soekarno-Hatta Airport in Indonesia has collapsed in the Gate 7 area today after heavy rain 👀
Tonight: Significant flooding in Cibeber District, Cianjur, on the island of Java, Indonesia.
The water is reported to be waist-high on adults.
After a dam overflow in the Derbent district of Dagestan, Russia, more than 4,000 people are being evacuated due to the threat of flooding.
Several settlements are at risk, and hundreds of children are among those being moved to safety.
Huge amounts of hail and flooding in Adana, Turkey today...
New: The April update to the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows an even greater likelihood of a strong El Niño later this year.
A few ensemble members go to +3.5 °C anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region!
for you then DEMAND solutions from politicians otherwise they don't get your vote. It's not complicated. ( personally done >50k miles in an electric car - no capability to charge at home - all done on public chargers). What's your excuse?
Lots of shouldn't, couldn't, wouldn't excuses. Agreed that best & cheapest solutions are active travel. But many people need a car. 2nd hand electric cars are now cheap (hint: Teslas aren't. Get an Ioniq - as efficient & cheaper). If you know what is best but the practicalities/economics don't work
If you prefer your information in video format 'Just Have A Think' covered this very well here: m.youtube.com/watch?v=qokw... Well worth a follow or subscription.
NOW: Flash flooding in Manrique Jardín, Medellín in Colombia....
global transition from FF is at most cuts of 5%/year & sinks decrease by same order of magnitude then carbon budgets need major recalculation. If sinks fail faster then the future of the planet is out of our hands. imo one of the key areas of research required. Any links to this type of research?
Thanks for the thread
1) mistake in discussions has been equivalence of emissions & RCP. CONCENTRATION= emissions-sinks. AFAIK - sinks are sidelined in models.
2) key turning point is if reduction in sinks + growth of natural emissions > practical human emissions reductions. E.g. if
Line chart showing atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958 to 2024. A light blue sawtooth line shows raw monthly values, reflecting the seasonal cycle of plant growth. A dark blue smooth line shows the seasonally adjusted record, rising from 315 ppm in 1958 to over 426 ppm in 2024. A dashed red curve shows the super-exponential fit, with the instantaneous growth rate rising from 0.27%/yr in 1960 to 0.64%/yr in 2024, more than doubling over the period of the record.
1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing?
The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise.
A thread. 🧵👇
Monthly mean temperature anomaly in March 2026 in Europe. Figure downloaded from http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.
Incredibly warm March after such a cold Jan-Feb.
The month will go down in history as the first March in Finland with nationwide mean temperature above freezing (0 °C).
Practically all weather stations will set new March mean temperature record, except those located further out in the Baltic Sea.
Assuming accelerating warming since 1980, the planet will cross 2.0°C sometime around 2036-2037.
As for where we are right now with respect to 1.5°C, check your rear-view mirror.
Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from NOAA OISST v2.1
Graph of daily sea surface temperature averaged from 60°S to 60°N. 2026 has just edged into record territory. Data from ERA5.
Almost-global-average sea-surface temperatures are creeping up to record levels again and we’re still in La Niña (according to NOAA).
There’s some uncertainty though as you can see from these two datasets..
Saw the graph & thought it was jaw-dropping that 2026 is matching El-Nino driven 2024. Then realised that 2026 is "only" 0.13degC above 2023. In a world warming >0.3degC/decade & 2023 is 3 years ago this is to be expected. Our brains are hard-wired to stability. The coming years will discombobulate
100% this. "There are no non-radical futures".
Climate change is producing a severe crisis of hegemony in the system: The elites cannot picture a coherent way forward, they cannot form stable, coherent, non-pathological alliances that could navigate the future. The demands produced by the results of science confront the demands of the markets..
Everything we need to do to stop climate breakdown, we also need to do for national security. Energy saving, more renewables, more electricity storage and interconnectors, electrification of transport, heating, cooking and industrial processes, plant-based diets. We win on all fronts.
