March real retail sales +0.7% yoy; ex-gas, -0.3% yoy. Big picture, real retail sales popped during the pandemic and has been reverting to trend ever since.

Nasdaq breadth thrust triggered. N=7 in last 35 years

Remove the ATH criteria and up ~13% in 13 days has happened a few times in the past 45 years. All at/near lows, except that one time when it was at an ATH (like now)

$SPX up 13% in 13 days to a new ATH. n=1 in the last 100 years.

Based on these prior instances, extreme strength like this usually happens early-to-mid cycle, not at the very end.

$NDX up 11 days in a row. Two observations. First, a drawdown of a median of 4% would be normal. Second, further gains of a median >10% in the next year would be normal.

This is small n, so not stat significant.

bsky.app/profile/quan...

$SPY $SPXTR at new ATH today, first time since Jan 27

Up 10% in 10 days is rare air. Last 20 years, only Dec 2008, March 2009 and April 2020 are bigger. That's some company

$SPX 60’ RSI (5) > 90. First time this year; last one before end of year slide.

Just a few thoughts
1. Sample size of 5 over 45 years is hugely stat insignificant
2. Why exclude 1974? Because SPX fell 35%
3. Why use oddly precise 56%? Make it ~60% and it will include 5 of last 7 recessions
4. SPX now 2% below ATH. In all the others it was 15-40% below, so fwd returns outsized

bsky.app/profile/carl...

Not something I'd normally recommend but I found this to be a very solid analysis of the position the US, Iran and the rest of the world now find them themselves in.
bsky.app/profile/ezra...

Oil now only 50% higher than before the excusion. Bargain

60' and monthly charts have been (tentatively) repaired with today's pop. The weekly (below) is notable. As usual, the close matters. Exciting times

bsky.app/profile/mich...

Reminder that the market peaked ahead of a 10% correction with the worst, most risky stocks being embraced by investors. So breadth expansion was a reflection of bullish sentiment.

Breadth doesn't work the way CMTs think it does.

Didn't pinpoint the low this time either - SPX fell about ~4% before a relief rally regained all the loses (just barely) since this post

Sentiment: SPX pulled back 10% as of March 30

Motherhood and apple pie:
60': lower low and lower high = a downtrend until the pattern reverses (1st chart)
Weekly: 20-wma broke 5 weeks ago after multiple hits in Feb. Probable R now (2nd)
Monthly: downtrend until 10-mma regained at EOM. It failed in March (3rd)

using not suing. Shoot me, spellchecker

A 4-week in a row drop when $SPX was at an ATH less than 40 trading days ago. Analysis by Gemini suing data over the past 45 years. Statistically significant, "one of the strongest mean reversion signals available."

The usual caveats apply.

Time to think how much fun it would be right now if we had fired the Fed and set the Fed rate off the 2-year. Good times bsky.app/profile/ukar...

Princess Bride - Land Wars in Asia YouTube video by technomage116

You fell for one of the classic blunders, the most famous is never get involved in a land war in Asia
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LUU...

$SPX has now undercut the low from 4Q25. Here's the drawdown for the years in Steve's post:

-19%
-25%
-34%
-9%
-20%
-22%

Avg 21.5%
Median 21%

Seasonality update:

Start of March: best two months of the year on tap (1st chart)

After 5% drop: weakness was likely (2nd)

Down 3 weeks in a row by 4%

Most sentiment indicators aren't washed out, but AAII (4-wk avg) is. Doesn't always pinpoint lows in SPX, and it's failed bigly a few times (red boxes), but add this to the SPXAD (10-dma; chart recently posted) and the SPX down 4-wks in a row chart (ditto) and a relief rally seems near

$SPX was ~1.2% higher two days later, then gave it all up (and more). Weak bounce when that washed out isn't a good sign

This is week 4 in a row down. Since 2008, that's happened 16 other times and the 5th week was higher ~80% of the time.

Motherhood and apple pie:

60': lower low and lower high = a downtrend until the pattern reverses (1st chart).

Weekly: 20-wma broke 3 weeks ago after multiple hits in Feb. Probable R now (2nd)

Monthly: uptrend still intact until 10-mma breaks at EOM. It's currently failing (3rd)

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