SPC Categorical Risk Area map valid at 1300 UTC. An Enhanced risk exists for Oklahoma, and a separate area extending from central Iowa eastward to Lake Huron including the Chicago metro. A large swath of Slight Risk area extends from the Rio Grande northeastward to the Great Lakes and a separate area over much of upstate New York and into eastern New Hampshire. A Marginal Risk encompasses these two areas and extends into southern Maine.
SPC Tornado Risk Area map valid at 1300 UTC. A 10% risk area exists from central Iowa into Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Double hatching indicates a CIG2 designation between the WI/IA/IL tri-state area, indicative of the possibility of intense tornadoes with reasonable intensity of EF3 or greater. A CIG1 exists from central Iowa eastward into eastern Michigan. Further south, a 5% CIG1 risk is indicated from far northwest Texas through central Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. A broad 2% tornado risk exists from the Rio Grande northeastward to the Ohio Valley. A separate 2% CIG1 also exists for upstate New York eastward into far eastern New Hampshire.
SPC Severe Wind Risk Area map valid at 1300 UTC. A 30% CIG1 risk area exists from eastern Wisconsin and Illinois eastward to Michigan. A broader 15% and 5% risk extends from the Rio Grande northeastward to Wisconsin and then east into far western Maine.
SPC Severe Hail Risk Area map valid at 1300 UTC. A 30% risk area exists from central Iowa into Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. Double hatching indicates a CIG2 designation including the WI/IA/IL tri-state area, indicative of the possibility of giant hailstones with reasonable maximum diameter of 3.5” or greater. A CIG1 extends from the Rio Grande northeast to central Michigan. A separate 30% risk area includes western and central Oklahoma with its own CIG2 designation. Another separate 5% risk area includes upstate New York into eastern New Hampshire.
The 13Z SPC D1 Outlook update is live with a few key changes:
• An ENHANCED risk upgrade was issued for western and central OK, driven by 30% hail prob upgrade and CIG2 designation
• 30% severe wind upgrade for Michigan with CIG1
• 10% tornado remains, but now with CIG2 over WI/IA/IL tri-state