Posts by Daniel Klotz
Abdessamed Qchohi, Simone Rossi
A Bayesian Perspective on the Role of Epistemic Uncertainty for Delayed Generalization in In-Context Learning
https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12434
🚨 New paper out! 🚨
We studied who contributes to data rescue citizen science projects and why. From retired data pros to environmentally engaged volunteers, discover what drives participation in #citizenscience projects in the field of #hydrology. doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Hydrology Paper of the Day @rodaguayo.bsky.social on changes in glacier water resources in Western Patagonia, South America: neural networks and mathematical models driven by glaciological and climate data; a geography of patterns related to runoff; and future predictions.
I’m not sure if I ever shared on Bluesky this article we wrote on how almost everyone giving career advice is susceptible to survivorship bias, but I think it was good and you should read it
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
I'm happy to report that the final draft of my new book is in copy editing!
The book is called When the Well is Dry: How Water Fuels Violence and Shapes Peace.
It's about the history and trends of violence over freshwater and how to move from conflict to cooperation.
bookshop.org/p/books/when...
It’s funny. I‘ve been there last year and did not see that many cyclists (more than 10years ago, sure, but it still did not feel like Amsterdam).
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
oh noo....
njahahaha
happy little accident
Either way, I am more interested in how people think about growth dynamics :)
Yeah. I would be important to not conflate data/info/ knowledge.
Fun: Some seem to link the knowledge doubling curve to Buckminster Fuller. His fans on reddit, however, do claim it does not (note also that one comment describes a similar idea as Jonathan's) www.reddit.com/r/Buckminste...
According to this article in 2013 (when it was written) human knowledge doubled every 12 hours. I wonder what happened to that trend...
www.industrytap.com/knowledge-do...
Box 1 | Diagnosing and misdiagnosing growth during the accelerating growth phase This box uses the case of solar photovoltaics (PVs) to illustrate that the changing pace of growth during the accelerating growth phase can pose a challenge for projecting future growth and the policy effort required to sustain it. From the early 2010s, the International Energy Agency came under criticism for routinely underprojecting near-term solar PV deployment in their baseline scenario268–270, depicting quasi-linear growth. In the early 2010s, the rapidly falling costs of solar PV (see the igure, part a) gave rise to concerns that the growth potential of solar PV was tremendously underestimated82.It was increasingly argued that rather than linearly extrapolating the growth of solar PV (see the igure, part b, blue lines), it should be approximated as quasi-exponential82,225,271,272 with any observed slowdown interpreted as a temporary luctuation from this long-term trend81. However, exponential growth models, which assume constant acceleration, also led to large errors in projections of future deployment of solar PVs (see the igure, part b, red lines). Instead, the acceleration rate has been steadily declining since the mid-2010s. The observed steady decline of the year-on-year growth rate after takeoff (see the igure, part c) is typical of new technologies and highlights the challenges and potential pitfalls of projecting growth during the accelerating growth phase. Understanding this pattern and the eventual transition to the steady growth phase is important for creating more accurate technology projections.
pulsating growth
This whole paper is amazing and I'll thread properly when have time but in short: I am going to call it 'discourses of acceleration' - how we understand the speed of cleantech growth, how it wobbles more than we think, and that means sustained effort, not sitting back
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
xLSTM Distillation: arxiv.org/abs/2603.15590
Near-lossless distillation of quadratic Transformer LLMs into linear-time xLSTM architectures enables cost- and energy-efficient alternatives without sacrificing performance.
Efficient xLSTM variants of instruction-tuned Llama, Qwen, and Olmo models.
youtu.be/mOptJl8Xkx0?...
The image is from a Maxis software catalog from 1994. The one below is one of the software toys it mentions at the beginning.
Could be my motto :)
PC mag 1985
In case anyone is thinking about visiting me as a guest researcher, here is a nice blogplost on how it is: digitalwaters.fi/spatzle-stru...
I do not have a remarkable :)