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Posts by Daniel Klotz

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Print Gallery Of An Artist by Daniel Linssen A Brief Exploration Of Recursive Spaces

managore.itch.io/print-galler...

23 hours ago 1 0 0 0

Abdessamed Qchohi, Simone Rossi
A Bayesian Perspective on the Role of Epistemic Uncertainty for Delayed Generalization in In-Context Learning
https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.12434

6 days ago 0 1 0 0
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Working with agents doesn't feel like flow — Bill de hÓra Working with agents doesn't feel like getting into flow to me. It feels more like a game loop: set direction, trigger action, watch what happens, evaluate, intervene, adjust, try again. Different kind...

Interesting: dehora.net/journal/2026...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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Plato's Argument Against Writing The people who invent something new, create a new tool or technology are not necessarily the people who are going to understand what the social impact of those inventions are going to be.

fs.blog/an-old-argum...

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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🚨 New paper out! 🚨
We studied who contributes to data rescue citizen science projects and why. From retired data pros to environmentally engaged volunteers, discover what drives participation in #citizenscience projects in the field of #hydrology. doi.org/10.1371/jour...

6 months ago 5 3 0 1

Hydrology Paper of the Day @rodaguayo.bsky.social on changes in glacier water resources in Western Patagonia, South America: neural networks and mathematical models driven by glaciological and climate data; a geography of patterns related to runoff; and future predictions.

2 weeks ago 4 1 1 0
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Book review: Maintenance: Of Everything (Part One) – Unsung A blog about software craft and quality

unsung.aresluna.org/book-review-...

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Beware survivorship bias in advice on science careers For objective careers advice, talk to those who left science as well as those who stayed.

I’m not sure if I ever shared on Bluesky this article we wrote on how almost everyone giving career advice is susceptible to survivorship bias, but I think it was good and you should read it

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

3 weeks ago 106 38 6 3
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I'm happy to report that the final draft of my new book is in copy editing!
The book is called When the Well is Dry: How Water Fuels Violence and Shapes Peace.
It's about the history and trends of violence over freshwater and how to move from conflict to cooperation.
bookshop.org/p/books/when...

3 weeks ago 144 32 2 3
10M — The Art Search Engine That Understands Feeling 134,000+ public domain works from 22 museums — searchable by mood, color, era, and medium. Free to download in high resolution.

www.10m.co

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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In Paris’s mayoral race, it’s drivers against cyclists A decade of greening leaves the capital less congested but more divided

It’s funny. I‘ve been there last year and did not see that many cyclists (more than 10years ago, sure, but it still did not feel like Amsterdam).

www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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oh noo....

4 weeks ago 2 0 0 1
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Power Causes Brain Damage How leaders lose mental capacities—most notably for reading other people—that were essential to their rise

www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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njahahaha

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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happy little accident

1 month ago 1 0 1 0
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Either way, I am more interested in how people think about growth dynamics :)

1 month ago 2 0 0 0
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From the BuckminsterFuller community on Reddit: I finished "Critical Path", and am surprised to have not found the Knowledge Doubling Curve anywhere. Anyone got ideas for where this might have come fr... Explore this post and more from the BuckminsterFuller community

Yeah. I would be important to not conflate data/info/ knowledge.

Fun: Some seem to link the knowledge doubling curve to Buckminster Fuller. His fans on reddit, however, do claim it does not (note also that one comment describes a similar idea as Jonathan's) www.reddit.com/r/Buckminste...

1 month ago 1 0 1 0
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Knowledge Doubling Every 12 Months, Soon to be Every 12 Hours Knowledge Doubling Curve Buckminster Fuller created the "Knowledge Doubling Curve"; he noticed that until 1900 human knowledge doubled approximately every cent

According to this article in 2013 (when it was written) human knowledge doubled every 12 hours. I wonder what happened to that trend...

www.industrytap.com/knowledge-do...

1 month ago 1 0 1 0
Box 1 | Diagnosing and misdiagnosing growth during the accelerating growth phase This box uses the case of solar photovoltaics (PVs) to illustrate that the changing pace of growth during the accelerating growth phase can pose a challenge for projecting future growth and the policy effort required to sustain it. From the early 2010s, the International Energy Agency came under criticism for routinely underprojecting near-term solar PV deployment in their baseline scenario268–270, depicting quasi-linear growth. In the early 2010s, the rapidly falling costs of solar PV (see the igure, part a) gave rise to concerns that the growth potential of solar PV was tremendously underestimated82.It was increasingly argued that rather than linearly extrapolating the growth of solar PV (see the igure, part b, blue lines), it should be approximated as quasi-exponential82,225,271,272 with any observed slowdown interpreted as a temporary luctuation from this long-term trend81. However, exponential growth models, which assume constant acceleration, also led to large errors in projections of future deployment of solar PVs (see the igure, part b, red lines). Instead, the acceleration rate has been steadily declining since the mid-2010s. The observed steady decline of the year-on-year growth rate after takeoff (see the igure, part c) is typical of new technologies and highlights the challenges and potential pitfalls of projecting growth during the accelerating growth phase. Understanding this pattern and the eventual transition to the steady growth phase is important for creating more accurate technology projections.

Box 1 | Diagnosing and misdiagnosing growth during the accelerating growth phase This box uses the case of solar photovoltaics (PVs) to illustrate that the changing pace of growth during the accelerating growth phase can pose a challenge for projecting future growth and the policy effort required to sustain it. From the early 2010s, the International Energy Agency came under criticism for routinely underprojecting near-term solar PV deployment in their baseline scenario268–270, depicting quasi-linear growth. In the early 2010s, the rapidly falling costs of solar PV (see the igure, part a) gave rise to concerns that the growth potential of solar PV was tremendously underestimated82.It was increasingly argued that rather than linearly extrapolating the growth of solar PV (see the igure, part b, blue lines), it should be approximated as quasi-exponential82,225,271,272 with any observed slowdown interpreted as a temporary luctuation from this long-term trend81. However, exponential growth models, which assume constant acceleration, also led to large errors in projections of future deployment of solar PVs (see the igure, part b, red lines). Instead, the acceleration rate has been steadily declining since the mid-2010s. The observed steady decline of the year-on-year growth rate after takeoff (see the igure, part c) is typical of new technologies and highlights the challenges and potential pitfalls of projecting growth during the accelerating growth phase. Understanding this pattern and the eventual transition to the steady growth phase is important for creating more accurate technology projections.

pulsating growth

pulsating growth

This whole paper is amazing and I'll thread properly when have time but in short: I am going to call it 'discourses of acceleration' - how we understand the speed of cleantech growth, how it wobbles more than we think, and that means sustained effort, not sitting back

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

1 month ago 29 5 1 2
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xLSTM Distillation: arxiv.org/abs/2603.15590

Near-lossless distillation of quadratic Transformer LLMs into linear-time xLSTM architectures enables cost- and energy-efficient alternatives without sacrificing performance.

Efficient xLSTM variants of instruction-tuned Llama, Qwen, and Olmo models.

1 month ago 5 7 0 1
More on making a killing from prediction markets | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/06/k...

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
So we’re betting on everything now?
So we’re betting on everything now? YouTube video by Good Work

youtu.be/mOptJl8Xkx0?...

2 months ago 3 0 0 1
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The image is from a Maxis software catalog from 1994. The one below is one of the software toys it mentions at the beginning.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0
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Could be my motto :)

2 months ago 0 0 1 0
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AI Is Getting Scary Good at Making Predictions Even superforecasters are guessing that they’ll soon be obsolete.

www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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PC mag 1985

2 months ago 2 0 0 0
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Spätzle, Strudel & Neural hydrology: My research visit to Linz - digitalwaters.fi Iiro Seppä, University of Turku. iielse@utu.fi At the end of November, I spent two weeks with the Machine learning in Earth Sciences group at Interdisciplinary Transformation University (IT-U) in Linz...

In case anyone is thinking about visiting me as a guest researcher, here is a nice blogplost on how it is: digitalwaters.fi/spatzle-stru...

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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I do not have a remarkable :)

2 months ago 0 0 0 1