The Rigidity Cycle and the Pacing Problem Anthony Downs on bureaucratic cruft

There's a literature in political economy on bureaucratic rigidity and the pacing problem. Classic work here comes from Anthony Downs, and it's striking how relevant his bureaucracy life cycle model is to electricity regulation. 📉📈 and 🔌💡

knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/the-rigidi...

Analysis of CBO’s March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its March 2025 Long-Term Budget Outlook, which builds off its

CBO's new long-term budget outlook. It's...not good. Record debt, record deficits, record interest. Debt spiral (interest outpacing GDP growth) begins in 2045. www.crfb.org/papers/analy...

Half of all new US EV registrations, 2012–2023, went to the top 10 percent most Democratic counties, from Lucas W. Davis, Jing Li, and Katalin Springel https://www.nber.org/papers/w33591

The Great Rooftop Solar Debate Podcast Episode · Boiling Point · 03/27/2025 · 45m

On this week's Boiling Point podcast, I moderate the Great Rooftop Solar Debate! The leader of CA's solar trade group and a UC Berkeley economist debate solar incentives, and things get intense. My attempts at finding common ground do not work. Listen in: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Growing demand for electricity and the adoption of renewables are transforming the U.S. grid. Join @nationalacademies.org for a webinar series to explore emerging challenges for the future electricity system, with a focus on improving subnational decision-making, innovation, and supply chains.📉📈 🔌💡

Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action Innovation is the key to a clean and prosperous energy future

Innovation is the key to a clean and prosperous future. 📉📈 and 🔌💡

knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/innovating...

#EnergySky friends, we are releasing a set of papers today outlining how #SurplusInterconnection can unlock GW of new resources. Surplus is a way to plug wind and solar into existing thermal plants.

Check out our papers, along with a cool interactive dashboard, here: www.scarcitytosurplus.com

Power systems are transforming—but outdated regulations are holding back innovation.

📢 Innovating Future Power Systems: From Vision to Action explores how to drive a clean, reliable, and consumer-driven energy future.

🔹 Read the full report: www.aei.org/research-pro...

crazy good and detailed explanation of the transmission problems we face here in the good old U.S.A....

Thanks Jeff!

Thanks Peter!

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms IV If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build?

If electricity transmission is so important, why is it so hard to build? 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff

Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101!

They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs.

Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships.

1/

What could possibly go wrong, you ask? 😬

Also kind of a love letter to @aripeskoe.bsky.social's 2023 Energy Law Journal article on the utility transmission syndicate.

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms III Regulation and perverse transmission incentives

The combination of monopoly regulation and RTO governance creates perverse transmission investment incentives. A slight diversion from my RTO series to provide useful background to those new to electricity policy. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

Want to see what data center demand has done to power demand forecasts in just 12 months?

Check out PJMs forecast for summer and winter peaks in 2025 compared to 2024.

The difference between the 2032 forecast this year and last year is almost 40,000 MW. 🔌💡

I only surf once every two years and love it (and picked it up surprisingly quickly!). If I spent more time in warm water places I'd do it every time.

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms II Why Power Systems Struggle with Change: Perverse Incentives and Outdated Rules

I'm starting off 2025 by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part II: institutional path dependence entrenches the governance power of incumbents. 📉📈 and 🔌💡

knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

Day 1 tariffs are bad for everyone — including President Trump President Trump should not pursue rash Day 1 tariffs after his inauguration is over. The market shock will be severe.

New at The Hill from my friend @sabineec.bsky.social

thehill.com/opinion/fina...

Of course. But the scope of my analysis was the thread from US investor owned utilities to US utility power pools to US RTOs. The scope of my analysis was not the international origins of wholesale markets. I may write that separately, although I wrote that plenty 24 years ago.

Data centers drive up projected electricity growth in the U.S. - Cipher News In just two years, the growth of data centers — fueled in part by artificial intelligence’s rapid integration into our livelihoods — have dramatically reshaped expectations for future energy consumpti...

Fueled partly by energy demand for AI, power utilities projected last year that electricity demand would grow FIVE times faster over the next five years compared to forecasts made two years ago. www.ciphernews.com/articles/dat... by @catclifford.bsky.social in Cipher News

Regional Transmission Organizations as Market Platforms I What's the origin story of wholesale power markets?

I'm starting off 2025, a year when I'll write a lot about the role of markets and innovation in enabling our future power systems, by writing a series about RTOs as wholesale market platforms. Part I: economic history. 📉📈 and 🔌💡
knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/regional-t...

Thanks Sam! Just back from vacation and catching up :-). I talked about the EEI (2013) report in the "from the archives" subsequent discussion. It'll be interesting to see where this goes this year ...

Economics of Grid Defection II Is it more feasible, and more likely?

In my second post on grid defection: Since 2014, has it become more feasible, and more likely? 📉📈 and 🔌💡

knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...

Long overdue super 🧵on why residential grid-interactive V2X is not (yet) a thing in the US.

1) Interconnection (IX)
2) Rate design
3) Vehicle capabilities & standards adoption

#energysky

Elon’s ambitions should not serve as cover for Dems to abdicate responsibility for thinking seriously about government reform, says @pahlkadot.bsky.social "Let’s not pretend that change was going to come from Democrats if they’d only had another term."
www.eatingpolicy.com/p/bringing-e...

🖤💛

Economics of Grid Defection I Grid defection and contestability

A decade ago the talk of electricity policy was grid defection. The underlying economic concept: contestability. The first of a four-part series on grid defection's decade.

📉📈 and 🔌💡

knowledgeproblem.substack.com/p/economics-...