Are the Greens taking Reform votes? The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

Please show this to various people in politics and media, while filming their reactions www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Are the Greens taking Reform votes? The Green surge might do more than just upend Labour

I'm late to it but @bwalker.uk spots something that makes sense, but is still fascinating: the Greens seem to be taking votes from Reform

"Some voters are looking more to Shake Things Up than pursue a necessarily right or left platform. They may see little difference in a Green or Reform vote"

I ask because today, for no apparent reason, I've had the switch in my head, that we need to seriously prepare for and properly assess a workable, agreeable and long term survivable (something we fanboys need to appreciate) electoral system in a post-First Past The Post Britain.

Kicking us off are these from the other place:
x.com/i/status/203...

Hello geeks. Has anyone done any good work on the relationship and/or effect list MPs/elected reps have with the constituents, compared to say constituency reps?

The rise of the undecided voter Exclusive polling shows how late the Gorton and Denton by-election was decided

Important data about Gorton & Denton from @bwalker.uk.

1. Only around 5% of Lab 2024 voters switched to Reform vs 36% to Greens.

2. No evidence of support for Reform among under 35s (sub 10%) - it's all over 55s

3. Progressives were undecided til last minute

www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...

Great idea, any and all activists who have recollections from the EUref counts should get involved

Wow! makes me think of Willie Rennie!!! (Cartoon from @neilslorance.com )

Well it's happening all the same on here lad, so don't play dumb. You confused BE for someone else, that's ok

Gorton and Denton by-election forecast. The three charts you need to know:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Rapidly discovering you're not best keen on me here, but I do post turnout?

Yes, I know some tactical voting sites say otherwise. I refer you to the statement above. The polling is a toss up, maybe favouring the greens a tiny amount. Labour has the more established ground operation. It is too close to call.

Honestly: anyone telling you polling “clearly” shows you should vote either Green or Labour to stop Reform in Gorton & Denton probably has a vested interest in that party winning.

It’s a toss up. There isn’t a guaranteed move here. You might choose wrong. So just vote the one you like best.

new statesman dot com baybeeee

Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart New factors have put Zack Polanski's party neck-and-neck with Labour and Reform

Gorton and Denton prediction: parties just hundreds of votes apart

📊 @bwalker.uk

I've previously been critical of some people on here for favouring the YouGov poll over poll-of-polls average - the argument for YouGov being that the average is distorted by Find Out Now.

@bwalker.uk of Britain Elects has helpfully shown what impact FON has on the average - and it is minimal.

Mmm, no they're not ✨

All relative

alongside all the other tool boxes of the last twelve months

I'm getting a little irate with people who clearly don't read but dunk regardless. I thought The Good Burghers of Bluesky were better than that!!

(Note though some pretty important context was edited out here. I explain more to someone else over on Twitter x.com/BNHWalker/st...)

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

And 3. They break new ground with white working class votes. The Green brand is received more warmly by middle to upper class voters than working class by 10pts. They're at a disadvantage in v white Denton. Compete on new ground with Lab/Ref there = they can win.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

The Greens can win in Gorton and Denton if...

1. They totally eviscerate Labour among Pakistani and Bangladeshi voters. As of late last year the Green brand was nationally viewed 17pts more favourably than the Labour. Big but not total. + SMALLER GAP UP NORTH.
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

New post: likely ward by ward breakdowns of Gorton and Denton if it voted today.

It's reasonable to expect Labour to not top the poll anywhere. The Greens may win in the west and Reform the east, but decent Labour seconds all over could see them home.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton? Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder

Can the Greens win Gorton and Denton?

Gorton voters may support the party, but winning over Denton will be harder.

📊 @bwalker.uk

?

It's a model projection, not a poll

How do you forecast an election result more accurately than all the professional pollsters? I asked Ben Walker from @britainelects.com and he told me... it's all about using local election microdata. Fascinating stuff in this week's episode of the Talk Data to Me podcast!

@bwalker.uk is the one to follow for data points on Burnham and what might happen if it happens.

This is particularly striking:

New best party on the economy poll:

Con: 21%
Ref: 14%
Lab: 12%

Biggest disadvantage I've seen for Labour in quite some time. As bad as / worse than some Corbyn periods.

8% of Lab voters now prefer the Cons
17% of Con voters now prefer Ref

YouGov
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/P_...

Newark would vote Conservative in an election held today:

Con: 37% (-2)
Ref: 23% (+8)
Lab: 21% (-12)

Britain Predicts