🚀 What now?
The platform is live.
A demo backtest works without logging in.
Feedback, bug reports and feature requests are explicitly welcome – every implemented suggestion is rewarded with bonus months.
If the project sounds interesting: a share or comment would be much appreciated 🙏
💶 Pricing
Free – core strategies to try things out
Pro – €9.99/month
Elite – €19.99/month (everything unlocked)
At launch: 3 Launch Packages for 12 months of Elite access each (€9.99 / €19.99 / €29.99 one-time) – as a thank-you to early supporters.
👥 Who it's for
→ Stock & ETF traders who'd rather test than speculate
→ Investors who want to know if their strategy actually beats the market
→ Beginners who want to understand RSI, SMA & MACD
→ Experienced traders who want to layer volatility & trend filters
🔔 More than just backtesting
- Live email alerts on signals
- Signal Dashboard showing BUY/SELL/HOLD at a glance
- Strategy Insights: which strategy is performing on which asset right now?
- Market Pulse with cycle and sentiment indicators
🛠️ What's inside
9 built-in strategies: RSI/SMA Cross, Golden Cross, Stochastic RSI, OBV-MACD, EMA Trend Bias, WMA Trend and more.
Plus Buy & Hold and DCA as reference benchmarks.
Combinable filters like 200 WMA, ATR Volatility or Min. Profit Guard – layered onto any strategy.
🎯 The Solution: Backtesting Arena
A platform to systematically test, compare and live-monitor trading strategies.
Across 5 asset classes:
✅ Stocks
✅ ETFs
✅ Commodities
✅ Forex
✅ Crypto
No coding required. Configure, click, read the results.
📊 The Problem
Every trading strategy sounds plausible at first glance.
"Cross the moving average and buy" – done.
But how would that rule actually have performed on the S&P 500 over the past 10 years? On a gold ETF? On EUR/USD?
Without a backtest, it's just gut feeling.
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interesting take on finding capitulation. But how do you find the right point to exit the market?
interesting results. What indicators / logic do you use?
If you want to test RSI strategies on BTC yourself — different parameters, different timeframes, combined with filters — I'm building exactly that at tradingstrategies.work.
Crypto backtesting is free, no sign-up wall.
Data beats opinion. Every time.
/end
The honest version:
→ Statistically, this looks like a zone where capital deployed tends to work out.
→ Even if it's not the bottom, history says a strong bounce has an 87.5% prior in this setup.
→ And yes — "this time is different" is always on the table.
Price action will settle it, not the chart.
Where we are right now (late April 2026):
Not giving financial advice. But: 200WMA below price check ✅, bear market structure check ✅, and the RSI setup is showing up on the daily.
If history rhymes, we're statistically closer to a bottom than to further significant downside.
Three takeaways that survive the small-sample caveat:
RSI<30 identifies tradeable lows well, final bottoms poorly.
Mid-bear rallies are the #1 failure mode — 24% of all signals.
Repeated/persistent RSI<30 is qualitatively stronger than a single print.
Don't mistake small-sample patterns for backtested strategies.
Use it to inform your thinking. Don't turn it into a trading rule without more validation — or combine it with other filters (trend, volatility, sentiment) that do have robust data behind them.
The honest statistical caveat:
8 cases is a small sample. The 87.5% figure has a 95% confidence interval running from ~50% to ~99%.
I can't claim "multi-signal RSI<30 has 87.5% success rate" as a backtested fact.
I can say the pattern is there. That's different.
Why does multi-signal matter more than a single print?
Experienced traders say it often: it's not the first touch of oversold that counts — it's the inability to recover.
Repeated or persistent RSI<30 = the market is telling you something structural, not just noisy.
Multi-signal RSI<30:
Bottom reached promptly: 5/8 (62.5%)
Bottom reached within 2 months: 2/8 (25%)
Further correction up to 30%: 1/8 (12.5%)
7 of 8 cases (87.5%) reached a bottom within 2 months.
Zero cases with further >30% drawdown.
Now the interesting part — what happens when the signal stacks?
I isolated 8 cases where either:
RSI<30 triggered twice within 2 months, OR
RSI stayed below 30 for more than a week continuously
The results change meaningfully.
This is why the two lenses matter:
RSI<30 is a tactical signal, not a strategic one.
Great for timing short-to-medium term entries.
Unreliable for calling generational bottoms.
Don't confuse the two.
Here's the subtlety:
RSI<30 wasn't "wrong" in those cases. It correctly identified oversold conditions. A genuine rally did follow.
But the rally was a bear market phenomenon, not the start of a new cycle.
If you traded the bounce → you made money.
If you HODL'd → you gave it all back.
The largest single failure mode is worth calling out:
7 of 29 signals (24%) were mid-bear rallies.
RSI<30 triggered → price rallied 30-100% → traders celebrated "the bottom" → another >30% correction wiped out the gains.
Classic bear market trap.
Final bottom lens:
14 of 29 signals → no lower low (48.3%)
15 of 29 → lower low followed (51.7%)
For a long-term HODLer trying to time the absolute cycle bottom, RSI<30 alone is basically a coin flip.
Same data. Two very different answers.
Tradeable low lens:
21 of 29 signals → positive (72.4%)
3 of 29 → near miss, 10-20% further drawdown
3 of 29 → failed
For a trader looking to buy weakness and sell into strength within weeks, that's a solid base rate.
First, you have to split the question in two:
→ Does RSI<30 mark a tradeable low? (bounce big enough to close profitably)
→ Does RSI<30 mark the final bottom? (no lower low follows)
These are NOT the same question. The data makes that very clear.
"RSI below 30 means oversold, buy the dip."
One of the most repeated lines in trading.
I looked at every RSI(14) daily close below 30 on BTCUSDT since 2015.
29 signals. Here's what actually happened. 🧵
Whether that's acceptable depends on your BTC thesis.
Right now:
STRC trades at par ✅ Dividends paid ✅ Volume setting records ✅ Bear market = first real stress test, passing so far
The interesting data point isn't that the debate is settled. It's that the debate is worth having.
The Coffeezilla "Ponzi-adjacent" critique deserves a clean answer:
Ponzi = new money pays old, no underlying asset. STRC = new money buys Bitcoin, which either appreciates or doesn't.
Honest framing: STRC is a leveraged long-duration BTC bet distributed to retail under a fixed-income label.
The risks, because a one-sided thread is dishonest:
• Perpetual = no redemption right
• Variable rate cuts both ways — raising yield eats cash
• 2% breakeven is long-term, not protection against 18 months flat
• Strategy's operating cash flow is negative; depends on market access