Tacoma the Precious Stay stubborn

We found a kitten during Hawaii's recent rainstorms. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/tacoma-the...

New Year, New World Order Sometimes you need allies

It turns out the US can't just bludgeon the rest of the world into submission
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/new-year-n...

If I were one of Elon Musk’s children I’d be worried he was going to harvest my organs

Grammatically, something from Dubai is “dubious”

Something Big AI comes at you fast

"If you’re a believer, this looks like the start of a “takeoff” scenario in which AI development accelerates exponentially as it is increasingly able to improve its own capabilities." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/something-...

Could the Democrats Retake the Senate? Fish, family, freedom

It comes down to whether Democrats can win Alaska and at least one other solidly red state. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/could-the-...

‘Do You Speak Billionaire?’ and Other Stories From the Fall of the Washington Post I think I can say with little fear of contradiction that I...

‘Do You Speak Billionaire?’ and Other Stories From the Fall of the Washington Post talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/do-yo...

We just submitted our sweet cat Juniper to be featured on the side of a Hawaiian Humane Society van as part of a fundraising contest. If want to support the amazing work the Humane Society does with animals, you can vote for Juniper here!
www.gogophotocontest.com/lovedrivesus...

“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”

LLMs Are Closing the Gap on Human Superforecasters We opened our AI forecasting benchmark to external submissions. Here’s what happened.

I’m not surprised by the new @research-fri.bsky.social results. I didn’t think forecasting agents were close when I wrote about them last summer, but what I’ve seen recently has been extremely impressive. open.substack.com/pub/forecast...

The American Crisis Minnesota No ICE

"Once we accept it’s okay to disregard the interests of others—that there’s no need to treat others the way we’d want to be treated ourselves—there’s no compelling reason to act any differently toward our fellow citizens and neighbors."
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/the-americ...

NonProphets Holiday Reunion Special "The future's not magic—it's probability!"

We're back! The liberal Joe Rogans we deserve
tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/nonprophet...

Climbing Koko Crater A personal note

tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/climbing-k...

I honestly don't think Trump's presidency would improve if he were more awake

Will 2026 Be a Blue Wave Year? Midterms are a referendum on the party in power

You don’t have to know anything about Donald Trump or the price of eggs to predict Democrats are likely to retake the House in 2026

Spotify Wrapped image that reads, "My Listening Age 21 Since I was into music from the Early 2020s"

Can't decide if I'm proud or ashamed of this

Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters "In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"

Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...

I like Creed’s cover of 4’33”

American Totalitarianism Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down

Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...

Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences

This will allow Qatar to reach US targets

The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...

This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you

We Must Not Go Down This Road Violence multiplies violence

My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...

Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research "In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"

I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting.

tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

If I stop a video and scroll down from it, I obviously don't want it popping it up over the text of an article

Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research "In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"

🎙️ Our CEO, Josh Rosenberg, went on
@deneufville.bsky.social's podcast podcast, Talking About The Future.

They discussed LLM biorisks, AI forecasters, how to make forecasting more useful to policy makers and much more.

Listen here: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...

Once again I did not ascend into heaven today

You looked great. But you don't look like either of those people.