🌐 🤝 Le CÉRIUM a offert une formation sur le Moyen-Orient, très ancrée dans l'actualité, aux diplomates & fonctionnaires, à l'Institut de la diplomatie du Qc, soutenu par le MRIF. Merci Laurence Deschamps-Laporte, Marie-Joëlle Zahar, Thomas Juneau et Hanieh Ziaei pour votre grande expertise !
My interview with the Vassy Kapelos show today, hosted by Tim Powers: update on the US-Iran talks on Saturday; where they might be heading; what Trump is trying to achieve with the blockade of Iran that started, sort of, today.
www.iheart.com/podcast/962-...
Mon entrevue au 98.5FM avec Patrick Lagacé ce matin: pas de progrès samedi dans les négociations entre l'Iran et les États-Unis; que veut dire la menace de Trump d'imposer un blocus sur l'Iran; conséquences de l'incohérence dans la stratégie américaine.
www.985fm.ca/audio/769715...
Waterloo Place, London
Mon entrevue au Téléjournal à Radio-Canada avec Céline Galipeau hier soir: est-ce que le cessez-le-feu entre l'Iran et les États-Unis va tenir? quels sont les obstacles principaux? quelles sont les conséquences pour la population iranienne?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PeZ8...
For The Decibel, the Globe and Mail's podcast, I talk about the Bab al Mandab, the strait off the coast of Yemen. The Houthis have the capability to block it. Why did they not do so during the war? Could they in the future? With what consequences?
www.theglobeandmail.com/podcasts/the...
London is amazing for many reasons - and its many parks is close to the top of the list. St James Park here:
Very nice to be again this year on The Hill Times' list of Top 50 influencers of Canadian foreign policy
www.hilltimes.com/2026/04/08/i...
... Yes, Iran can rebuild its missile launchers, and yes, its navy and airforce were never its main sources of power. But Iran is severely weakened nevertheless. And the regime remains very vulnerable domestically.
-How the US can claim to have won: it inflicted significant pain on Iran, heavily damaging its military power and decapitating its leadership, demonstrating again tremendous military and intelligence superiority. There is a tendancy among critics of the US and Israel to minimize these losses...
...(a tremendous source of leverage it will no doubt threaten to use again); the US has suffered important reputational costs and has strained even more its alliances.
-Iran's claim to have won: it survived a war that the US and Israel (clumsily and unrealistically) framed as a war for regime change; it demonstrated what everyone (except Trump and Hegseth) knew in theory - it can block the Strait of Hormuz...
...War could very well return given how far apart the two sides are.
Who won the war? It really depends on your criteria for success. Both the US and Iran can plausibly claim some wins. On balance, I think Iran has a slightly better case:
-But not by much
-And keep in mind the war is not over; this is a fragile ceasefire, with the hardest steps ahead.
Important thread ⬇️
-And needless to say, the US is led by an absolute clueless incompetent madman who is damaging US power, reputation, alliances, etc.
-The domestic crackdown will be brutal, but so will the international one: transnational repression (targetting dissidents abroad) will intensify, as it did in the past when two variables (regime vulnerability and enhanced diaspora obilization) converged.
Domestically, I am skeptical there will be a sustained rally-around-the-regime effect. The regime remains as unpopular and it is a matter of when, not if, popular protests resume, and the regime will repress them as brutally as ever.
The Islamic Republic survived the war. Yes, it will claim victory merely because it resisted, but it comes out much, much weaker economically, militarily (with the exception of the Hormuz precedent), and diplomatically (it has annoyed a lot of countries).
-Arab states of the Gulf already mistrusted Iran - the war will leave a long-lasting legacy of even more bitterness
-Arab states of the Gulf will also be angry at the US... but will have no choice but to stay close, and perhaps closer, given the continued threat of Iran
-Expect them also to learn the lesson that closing maritime chokepoints works; a lesson Iran and the Houthis will certainly remember for the Bab al-Mandab in the future. It is permanently held hostage as well.
-So expect Iran to double down on drones and missiles; it will sprint to rebuild production capacity and replenish stocks.
-the failure of the Axis of Resistance: Iran's deterrence - its ability to inflict a cost on adversaries - did not come from Hamas, Hezbollah, or other armed groups it supports, but from its own missiles and drones.
This war will leave long-lasting consequences:
-the precedent of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz (big leverage it will be able to threaten to use again)
US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire. Some thoughts:
-Both had strong reasons to want the war to stop (very costly for each, even if in a very different way)
-Their demands in coming talks for a durable ceasefire are VERY distant, & both will be intransigent
-So the risk of renewed violence is real
Hello, London. One of the great cities in the universe.
(yes, I ate most of the fries before taking the picture)
-"By only launching missiles or drones on Israel, Houthi attacks cannot have a decisive impact on the balance of forces in the war."
-"For now, it is plausible to assume that the Houthis are hesitant to renew efforts to block the Bab al-Mandab and the Red Sea."
Why did the Houthis strike Israel this weekend? what could have been their goal? And why have they not resumed their attacks on maritime shipping in the Red Sea after one month of US/Israel war on Iran? Where does Iran stand? My analysis for the Sanaa Center:
sanaacenter.org/publications...
-as usual with the Houthis, part of the goal is also to score propaganda gains by positionning themselves as champions of the Palestinan cause
-this can serve to boost Iran's leverage in talks with the US (the Houthis have an important interest in supporting Iran's effort to shape whatever post-war arrangements emerge)