Yk one of the houses I have seen may have actually exhibited signficant (IF2) damage to the roof. The angle I had on it was quite poor tho and I also cannot be sure whether it was a Class C, Class D or maybe even Class E structure. Also rating isn't my main expertise. (3/3)
The kinematic parameters shown here may have even supportred an intense tornado (IF3+) if they had been coupled with summertime thermos. Fun fact, from what I gathered on Tornado Archieve, New Zealand climatology appears to be weirdly skewed to the cold season.
Very interesting meteorologically because this happened in very close proximity (both space & time) to a weather balloon launch. Whenuapai observations show quite high 0-1 and 0-3 km shear as well as SRH. Folks there should be thankful there wasn't more bouyancy (1/3)
More specifically CIG2 shading applied indicates a maximum propable intensity of EF3. More specifically a 10% CIG2 means that there is a 10% chance of a tornado occuring within 25 mi of any given point and that some tornadoes may be intense but propably not violent.
Similarly the northern mode also exhibits very high values of WmaxShear alone. This doesn't tell us anything about the kind of hazards, just that significant severe is likely. In the case of the northern mode, the primary hazard is tornadoes.
Dangerous severe weather day ahead today for the southern plains. HRRR model forecasts indicate widespread very high to extreme values of WmaxShear. This indicates a fairly high chance of significant severe. In this case primarily damaging wind and very large to giant hail.
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This may be related to a recent uptick in northwesterly shear, contributing to the ventilation by stable air on that quadrant & eroding the outer eyewall. Meanwhile the inner eyewall is tucked away inside the storm substantial moisture bubble and re-enforced by the diurnal pulse.
Sunrise update on Typhoon Sinlaku. Recent microwave imagery indicated that the typhoon was progressing through its eyewall replacement and may actually complete. However recent satellite trends cast some doubt on this as the outer convection on the north side has waned a lot lately
Typhoon Sinlaku has consolidated post eyewall replacement cycle and has settled into an intensity of 205 km/h (125 mph) acc to JTWC. Facing a reasonably favourable environment for the next 24 hrs, this intensity should hold relatively steady with accelerating weakening therafter
that the precise center shot the gap through the islands. Personally my analysis lines up more with that of JTWC, that the center passed over Tinian but the eye wobbled north as it passed through the islands and may have just grazed the southwest corner of Saipan (3/3)
JMA's graphical forecast appears to be suggest that Sinlaku may have made what would be a historic landfall on the island of Saipan. However, keying the coordinates given into google maps, places the storm between the islands and with a forward motion that would strongly imply... (2/3)
I had to reword this post. There seems to be some uncertainty as to the precise landflal location (if any) of Typhoon Sinlaku. While the JTWC reckons it made landfall on Tinian, the official products issued by JMA leave some doubt as to whether Sinlaku ever made landfall anywhere (1/3)
3 hours ago the VIIRS imager made this very high-resolution image of what was then Violent Typhoon Sinlaku, right after it had made its destructive passage through the islands of Tinian and Saipan.
Earlier today NASA'S Terra satellite snapped this high-res image of what was then still Super Typhoon Sinlaku in the midst of a prolonged eyewall replacement, as it was closing in on the islands of Tinian and Saipan. The dual eyewalls are very appearent in this one.
Radar data indicate that the inner eyewall of Sinlaku is now beginning to come on-shore on the islands of Tinian & Saipan. This should mean the return of very damaging Typhoon force winds after the relative lull that likely existed in the moat between the inner and outer eyweall
Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku is slowly getting ready to wrap up its eyewall replacement as its eye closes in on Tinian & Saipan. The inner eyewall starting to give way but still hanging in for now. For the islands this unfortunately means a potential double whamy of destructive winds.
About an hour later, NOAA-20 came by and snapped this high-resolution image of Super Typhoon/Violent Typhoon Sinlaku. At the time the official RSMC intensity had been held at 215 km/h (130 mph) 10 minute sustained, making it a 'Violent Typhoon', JMA's equivelant of Cat 5 SSHWS.
The Graphic shows the forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, which lies slightly to the north of the official RSMC forecast. On this forecast, Sinlaku passes to the north of Saipan, some time around 1200 UTC, placing it during the evening of Tuesday local time. While a landfall would be avoided in this scenarion, Saipan would still likely experience a direct hit, placing the island within the destuctive eywewall of powerful Super Typhoon Sinlaku. Source: JTWC
On the RSMC forecast, this landfall is expected to occur around 1200 UTC or thereabout. The next forecast point is in 24 hours, about 6 hours after landfall and shows the intensity having decreased to the stage of 'Very Strong Typhoon' but just barely. Source: JMA
Forecasts for STY Sinlaku have continued to trend north today and while JTWC now progs a track to the north of Saipan, JMA still forecasts a historic landfall. In both scenarios the capital of the northern Marianas faces a likely devestating direct hit from this Violent Typhoon.
Earlier today the NOAA-21 satellite captured this stunning very high-res EIR image of Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku, slightly down from its peak of 295 km/h (185 mph) 1 min sustained but still displaying a beautiful structure at 280 km/h (175 mph) according to JTWC
After briefly recovering, the the satellite presentation of Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku has begun to deteriorate again in these last few hours and the eye's trochoidal wobble has increased (again). Indicative of Sinlaku slowly continuing to attempt to go through the motions of an ERC.
On agency forecasts from both JMA and JTWC Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Senlaku is forecast to make a potentially devestating direct hit on both the islands of Tinian and Saipan in less then 24h. For interests there, time ot make preperations to protect life and property is pretty much up
Some cracks are now starting to show in Super Typhoon Sinlaku's armor with the satellite presentation starting to show some of the telltale signs of (attempted) eye wall replacement. MW imagery indeed shows a large outer concentric band. May be a long one if it ever completes
More polar orbiting satellite images for Super Typhoon/Violent Typhoon Sinlaku. Looking absolutely stunning
It seems like under the prevailing low moonlight conditions the VIIRS imager's Day/Night band may have been able to make out gravity waves eminating through the upper atmosphere caused by Violent Typhoon/Super Typhoon Sinlaku. Tho if anyone has another explenation pls correct me
Earlier today, the VIIRS instrument was able to capture the amazing structure of Super Typhoon Sinlaku in stunning detail. Especially in the first of these two passes that structure was very much textbook and in fact virtually perfect😍.
When I went to bed last nite, I knew that Sinlaku would become an absolute beast and boi did it deliver.Typhoon seaon hasn't just gone from zero straight to Super Typhoon but to 'Violent Typhoon'. An absolutely upper echelon Typhoon we are seeing here. It has likely levelled off now tho.
Typhoon Sinlaku has intensified very rapidly in the last 6 hours and is now a 205 km/h (125 mph) major typhoon (C3+ SSHWS) according to JMA. In these last 6 hours the eye has formed and quickly become well defined, while the CDO has also taken on a quite mature appearence.
Subtropical Storm Vaianu is about to make landfall on the north island of New Zealand. The system honestly looks as well organized as it had for quite some time but there are too many fronts involved for it to be considered tropical. It has an eye tho, which is cool.
The eye of Typhoon Sinlaku is developing at a decent clip and now the CDO is also becoming more symmtrical. At this point the system has propably reached the stage of Major Typhoon (C3 SSHWS) and seems well on its way to Super Typhoon status, perhaps even Violent Typhoon
