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Posts by jon ben-menachem

Really, what's the point of that post? Breadcrumbs for later?

1 hour ago 8 0 4 0

What was in the letter?

1 hour ago 18 0 1 0

like if they weren't already doing it under biden, "make chatgpt do the analytics for me" is extremely kash patel coded

1 hour ago 16 1 0 0

would be shocked if they weren’t tbh

1 hour ago 3 0 1 0

nonzero chance the FBI is plugging LLMs into wiretap data under the legal theory AI alone can’t implicate 4th amendment concerns (semi-known 702 issue). or the NSA has now hard coded wiretaps across all newly built US data centers due to expanded ECSP scope. or probably both.

1 hour ago 591 223 9 8

It's me, I'm the journalist.

4 hours ago 41 2 1 0

makes sense that it's internal numbers because idk who is getting more than 2 opus prompts per session right now

2 hours ago 2 0 0 0

congrats!

2 hours ago 1 0 0 0
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In the specific study in question, they do specifically estimate displacement effects and find if anything the intervention's violence reduction effects spread to nearby areas. I don't have access to their data or code, so I can't say much more than that!

4 hours ago 3 0 0 0

I think basically It's Complicated. Focused deterrence (a common gang policing intervention but *not* what the NYPD does) focuses on social networks, not specific spaces per se, which means that spatial displacement is less relevant.

4 hours ago 2 0 1 0
The EBP emphasis on quantitative data raises still more issues. It’s widely acknowledged that criminal justice data are terrible. As a researcher, I’m not opposed to efforts to improve the data that I work with, but I don’t think that improvements in data quality are “equal opportunity,” so to speak. It is fairly common for researchers to enter into restrictive data use agreements with criminal legal agencies in order to collect better data. This can create conflicts with aspirations toward data transparency and replication. Scientists expect academic journals to share data that others can use to replicate findings. This is a concern about the integrity of science, but there are also political problems: Law enforcement can freely deny data access to any researcher who is perceived to be too critical, which makes political moderatism and “relationship management” key for the aspiring researcher.

Structurally, then, high-quality quantitative criminalization research often depends upon the political calculations of police chiefs and corrections commissioners. If this kind of research is the minimum threshold for “what works,” won’t the substance of EBP proposals tilt toward the preferences of cops and corrections officers (or their relationships with certain academics)? This isn’t to say that every study supporting the efficacy of policing or incarceration can be discredited, but rather that, on balance, the scales will tilt toward the status quo. In this sense, “what works” could boil down to “what the bureaucrats will tolerate.”

The EBP emphasis on quantitative data raises still more issues. It’s widely acknowledged that criminal justice data are terrible. As a researcher, I’m not opposed to efforts to improve the data that I work with, but I don’t think that improvements in data quality are “equal opportunity,” so to speak. It is fairly common for researchers to enter into restrictive data use agreements with criminal legal agencies in order to collect better data. This can create conflicts with aspirations toward data transparency and replication. Scientists expect academic journals to share data that others can use to replicate findings. This is a concern about the integrity of science, but there are also political problems: Law enforcement can freely deny data access to any researcher who is perceived to be too critical, which makes political moderatism and “relationship management” key for the aspiring researcher. Structurally, then, high-quality quantitative criminalization research often depends upon the political calculations of police chiefs and corrections commissioners. If this kind of research is the minimum threshold for “what works,” won’t the substance of EBP proposals tilt toward the preferences of cops and corrections officers (or their relationships with certain academics)? This isn’t to say that every study supporting the efficacy of policing or incarceration can be discredited, but rather that, on balance, the scales will tilt toward the status quo. In this sense, “what works” could boil down to “what the bureaucrats will tolerate.”

I have written about the structural implications of proprietary/gated criminal justice data before. Fundamentally antithetical to open science practice, and from a "public interest" policy evaluation perspective, Quite Bad. Should be a true public square. inquest.org/our-evidence...

4 hours ago 4 0 0 0

To be clear I'm not even speaking from a position of purity. One of my publications uses data gated by an organizational data use agreement (I'm not the PI on it).

4 hours ago 4 0 1 0

Let's set aside the question of whether police data have systematic missingness or distortion that would affect the reliability of inference. Why can't we even access the data used to make claims like "gang policing works"? If the goal was "unbiased" scientific knowledge, it would be public.

4 hours ago 12 1 1 0

Anyway, I think that if the claim is "anyone who looks at the data can see that policing works," you'd think that the NYPD would publish their data on the city's open data portal, and papers making use of NYPD data would post their code in a tidy replication package.

5 hours ago 39 6 2 0
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Exclusive | Vile AI photos of KKK-hooded cops and cuffed gorillas passed around by elite NYPD unit — sparking discrimination suit The chat group used by the Major Case Squad was titled “Major case – team building,” with the offensive images showing up in 2025 and 2026, according to a lawsuit.

Meanwhile, the actual operational reality of NYPD gang units is that they're so full of cartoon-villain racist bullshit that the NYPD's own cops are suing the department over it. These are the actual individuals we are discussing! Does the causal estimand cover this?

nypost.com/2026/04/11/u...

5 hours ago 29 2 1 0
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The Largest Gang Raid in NYC History Swept Up Dozens of Young People Who Weren’t in Gangs The prosecution of the Bronx 120 raises serious questions about due process and the abuse of federal conspiracy charges.

I think if you spend like, 20 minutes reading about the basic facts of "precision policing" in NYC, you start to have real questions about how "precise" its targeting is. If you compare it to interventions in other cities, NYPD looks to be running a dragnet.

theintercept.com/2019/04/25/b...

5 hours ago 26 5 1 1
Chalfin: The empirical evidence shows that this approach can and has appreciably reduced serious violence in targeted communities: in NYC and elsewhere.  See the following article that is specific to NYC.  If you incapacitate the right 0.1% of the population, you can see shootings decline by as much as 1/3 for some time afterwards.  Homicide in NYC is at a 100 year low.  More surgical policing is likely one of the reasons.

Chalfin: The empirical evidence shows that this approach can and has appreciably reduced serious violence in targeted communities: in NYC and elsewhere. See the following article that is specific to NYC. If you incapacitate the right 0.1% of the population, you can see shootings decline by as much as 1/3 for some time afterwards. Homicide in NYC is at a 100 year low. More surgical policing is likely one of the reasons.

Another researcher chimes in to plug their study. The claim of the study is that something like 25-33% of the temporary decline in gun violence in certain housing projects can be attributed to police intervention. What about the other 66%? Did that part involve federal charges for teenagers?

5 hours ago 14 1 2 0
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This is a paradigm example of a terrible scientific assertion made by a heavily biased journalist. He says the intervention doesn't work because he feels it doesn't, and doesn't like its vibes. The empirical evidence says otherwise, and he ignores it. 
 
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.22323
Quote
Peter Sterne
@petersterne
·
5h
These “gang takedowns” that send dozens of young Black men to prison without changing any of the underlying factors that result in young people joining gangs don’t work. The cops and DAs just periodically arrest a new bunch of people, but nothing really changes. x.com/nypdpc/status/…

This is a paradigm example of a terrible scientific assertion made by a heavily biased journalist. He says the intervention doesn't work because he feels it doesn't, and doesn't like its vibes. The empirical evidence says otherwise, and he ignores it. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pam.22323 Quote Peter Sterne @petersterne · 5h These “gang takedowns” that send dozens of young Black men to prison without changing any of the underlying factors that result in young people joining gangs don’t work. The cops and DAs just periodically arrest a new bunch of people, but nothing really changes. x.com/nypdpc/status/…

There is a fascinating dust-up on the other website today wherein someone who was an NYPD cop for 19 years is accusing a journalist of making "biased" claims about police intervention efficacy.

5 hours ago 37 6 3 2
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Where the DOGE Operatives Are Now WIRED tracked down some of the most prominent figures of last year’s DOGE invasion. Here's where they are now—in government and beyond.

NEW: WIRED tracked down some of the most prominent figures of last year’s DOGE invasion. Here's where they are now—in government and beyond.

read @telliotter.bsky.social:

9 hours ago 376 168 9 21

After much toil, I have obtained the elusive R replication of Stata code. The specific case of "complex survey design ordinal logit marginal effects" is really an area where we could use some more intuitive and robust software in R.

8 hours ago 2 0 2 0
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Google Search is now using AI to replace headlines Let us know if you see more.

Dark ages www.theverge.com/tech/896490/...

19 hours ago 2 1 0 1

Yeah I just never put any logging work in there… Will regret later I’m sure

22 hours ago 1 0 1 0

I have several project-specific Zotero libraries, but research focused

23 hours ago 3 0 1 0

I think the issue is that google alerts will catch a lot of fish, most of which wouldn't be the kind of thing that we want to save for later

1 day ago 2 0 0 0

No youre good lol

1 day ago 2 0 1 0

Yep lol, used to work in comms

1 day ago 1 0 1 0
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someone said in a groupchat earlier today that their relative lost $30k on this company lmao

1 day ago 0 0 0 0

Realistically I just don't have time to do this. I don't even have a coherent organization system for research publications, which is much more necessary for me

Just means I do insane web searches with arbitrary time filters for now lmao

1 day ago 1 0 2 0
tweet: This is what our cops are up against: organized looters, strategically placing caches of bricks & rocks at locations throughout NYC.

tweet: This is what our cops are up against: organized looters, strategically placing caches of bricks & rocks at locations throughout NYC.

although it's also a very funny specific example because news sites embedded direct tweet links, and the username of the verified account has changed over time. so anyone coming to this page now sees jessica tisch voicing words that dermot shea said in 2020

1 day ago 6 1 0 0
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NYPD Commissioner Says Bricks 'Are Being Placed And Then Transported To Peaceful Protests,' Councilman Then Calls Them 'Construction Debris' The commissioner said there have been incidents in Brooklyn and Queens, and bricks were stolen from a construction site in Manhattan.

this is one example of the thing i always come back to, which is relatively easy to find because it contains a specific combination of words that are lodged in my memory permanently apparently www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news...

1 day ago 4 2 1 0