If making predictions off of early vote is as useful as slaughtering a chicken and reading the entrails then election day turnout numbers are as useful as looking at the bottom of your teacup.
Jeb Bush standing in front of a map of Virginia with all of the counties shaded yellow
turnout in Virginia is . . . good for yes? no, BAD for yes! good for no! wait, no, BAD for no!
what about the NEITHER YES NOR NO OPTION
I didn't know Daniel Bice, but I cited his work a LOT. Wisconsin elections won't be the same without him.
Clark County Circuit Court Judge Lyndsey Brunette is the first liberal candidate to enter the race to flip a conservative-held seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court next April. A win would leave liberals with a 6-1 majority and mean conservatives can't regain control until 2033 at the *earliest*.
Trump’s pollster released a poll two days before Hungary’s election that showed Viktor Orban’s far-right Fidesz party leading 43-37.
Instead, the opposition Tisza party won 53-38 and secured the 2/3 supermajority needed to unravel Orban’s authoritarian regime
McLaughlin polling is, once again,
Swalwell defenders: eat shame. Eat a supersized bowl of deluxe shame slathered with special shame sauce. For dessert, another round of the same (shame).
Oklahoma voters placed Medicaid expansion into their state constitution in 2020. Now, Gov. Kevin Stitt and other Republican leaders want them to take it out.
This is a massive Dem overperformance in Marjorie Taylor Greene's old congressional district.
Dems never had a chance in a Trump+37 seat, but Trump won sooo many GOP seats by much smaller margins. Dems have outperformed 2024 president by 13 points on average in special elections since January 2025
It sucks when Ted Cruz gets to do it, but I still like our Constitution the way it is.
I am a medieval historian!! The world always is in a state, it has never not been in a state, joy and delight and beauty is what humanity exists for
Graph showing only 51% of Republicans say the economy is currently getting better, down from about 70-75% before the Iran War.
Something interesting is happening here. This is *just Republicans* souring on the economy.
civiqs.com/results/econ...
Someone needs to establish a universal rule for whether the day of something counts as day 1 or day 0.
Eric Chung, who is competing in the busy Democratic primary to flip #MI10, says he raised $330,000 in the first quarter of 2026 and finished March with $925,000 on hand.
Jay Vaingankar, who is competing in the packed Democratic primary for open #NJ12, says he raised $110,000 in first quarter of the year.
Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen says she raised $1.3 million in the first quarter and finished March with $3 million in the bank. Gillen is defending a Long Island constituency that Kamala Harris narrowly carried. #NY04
Robin Peguero, a former prosecutor who is competing in the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar, reports raising $340,000 in first quarter of 2026. #FL27
Wednesday is the first time that a Passover Seder has been held on April Fools' Day since 1999, and it will not happen again until 2045.
Go ahead, tell 'em to dip their bitter herbs *three* times. Have them say the ritual blessing while washing their hands the first time. And so on.
Graves filed his withdrawal this afternoon. Would-be candidates for #MO06 can still file through Tuesday, but filing will also be reopened from April 7 through 10.
Figured we had to write down a policy for this: Why @fiftyplusone.news wont be aggregating or reporting on AI-generated “polls”
open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...
Let tonight's special elections be a lesson to all: Do not freak out over early voting numbers.
$10 million doesn't buy what it used to.
Nevada Republicans want to unseat Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar and retake control of this important election post in this perennial swing state. They first need to avoid nominating some of the far-right losers of yesteryear, including the one and only Sharron Angle.
Juliana Stratton's win, like Angela Alsobrooks' victory in the 2024 Dem primary for Maryland Senate, is a reminder that one candidate amassing a giant lead in the polls long before the primary can be a mirage when the other side has the resources to go up when voters are actually paying attention.
Can confirm!
Many in the GOP badly want Florida to pass an aggressive new congressional map. But one top Republican is warning about going too big—and there are now questions about whether they'll be able to get it done at all, since the legislature is at war with itself.
We explain in today's newsletter -->
A HUGE opening night for the 2026 primary season is over, and The Downballot has a fresh rundown of an evening that saw James Talarico win the Dem nod for Texas' U.S. Senate seat, GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw become the first member of Congress to lose reelection, a Dem pickup in Arkansas, and a lot more.
JUST IN: Democrat Alex Holladay has flipped a GOP-held seat in *Arkansas*.
Republican Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders tried hard to delay this race and wanted the seat to stay vacant for 8+ months, but the courts told her to hold it today. If she was worried, she was right to be.
Our full recap:
As you hunker down for primary night—the first polls start closing in a couple of hours—be sure to get up to speed on all the critical races with our comprehensive guide. We've previewed 40 different contests!
The Downballot Announces It Never Teaming Up With Gambling Sites