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Posts by Gönül Tol

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Turkey Sees Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain in the Iran War - Middle East Institute

My latest on Turkey and the Iran war: The war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey but Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term: mei.edu/publication/...

5 days ago 7 7 1 0
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Turkey Sees Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain in the Iran War - Middle East Institute

My latest on Turkey and the Iran war: The war has posed significant immediate challenges for Turkey but Turkish officials think that Ankara could reap benefits from the war in the long term: mei.edu/publication/...

5 days ago 7 7 1 0

When people who haven’t read the book argue with the person who wrote it…

6 days ago 6 0 0 1
Nazanin Boniadi: How the World Can Help Iran’s Democratic Struggle
Nazanin Boniadi: How the World Can Help Iran’s Democratic Struggle YouTube video by Middle East Institute

I’m joined by an exceptional guest, Iranian-British actress and political activist @NazaninBoniadi. Watch this powerful conversation here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lT7K...

6 days ago 0 0 0 0

Just weeks before Trump’s war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country. But once the war started, that momentum largely came to a halt. To unpack what this war means for Iran’s democracy movement,++

6 days ago 2 1 2 0
Sırada Türkiye mi var? Hürmüz işgal edilir mi? Gönül Tol ve @sarkiskassargian  ile konuşuyoruz
Sırada Türkiye mi var? Hürmüz işgal edilir mi? Gönül Tol ve @sarkiskassargian ile konuşuyoruz YouTube video by Hediye Levent

📌"Sıra Türkiye'de" ne demek?
📌Trump, Hürmüz'ü işgal eder mi?
📌Körfez ülkeleri İran savaşına nasıl bakıyor?

Siyaset Bilimci Gönül Tol @gonultol.bsky.social ve Gazeteci Sarkis Kassarjian @sarkiska.bsky.social ile konuştuk.

Abone olmayı unutmayın!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPOL...

1 week ago 10 3 0 1

Always great to listen to what Howard has to say about Turkey.

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

I’m pretty sure the human nervous system wasn’t built for real-time access to everyone else’s thoughts

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy
Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy YouTube video by Middle East Institute

Israel’s campaign in Lebanon isn’t getting enough attention in the West but the country is nearing a breaking point.On my podcast, Lebanese MP Mark Daou and I unpack what Iran war and Israeli operations in Lebanon mean for the country. You can watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmxl...

3 weeks ago 6 1 1 0
Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy
Lebanon at the Brink: War, Hizballah, and the Fate of Democracy YouTube video by Middle East Institute

Israel’s campaign in Lebanon isn’t getting enough attention in the West but the country is nearing a breaking point.On my podcast, Lebanese MP Mark Daou and I unpack what Iran war and Israeli operations in Lebanon mean for the country. You can watch here www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vmxl...

3 weeks ago 6 1 1 0

In the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I speak with Allan Hassaniyan, author of a book on Iranian Kurds. We discuss the history of Kurdish struggle in Iran, where Kurds stand within the broader Iranian opposition, their ties with Israel and the US, and how Kurdish leaders are responding to++

1 month ago 7 2 1 0
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame?
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame? YouTube video by Middle East Institute

Trump’s suggestion that they rise up against the regime.
Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sgw...

1 month ago 2 1 0 0
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame?
The Kurdish Card: Can Iranian Kurds Shape the War’s Endgame? YouTube video by Middle East Institute

Trump’s suggestion that they rise up against the regime.
Listen here www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sgw...

1 month ago 2 1 0 0

In the latest episode of Rethinking Democracy, I speak with Allan Hassaniyan, author of a book on Iranian Kurds. We discuss the history of Kurdish struggle in Iran, where Kurds stand within the broader Iranian opposition, their ties with Israel and the US, and how Kurdish leaders are responding to++

1 month ago 7 2 1 0
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Can Turkey Stay Out of the Iran War? - Middle East Institute

🗞️ Sunday extras:

"Can Turkey Stay Out of the Iran War?" with @gonultol.bsky.social, Alistair Taylor and Matthew Czekaj. [1/5]

1 month ago 4 1 1 1
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Can Turkey Stay Out of the Iran War?

Good interview

@gonultol.bsky.social on Turkey and the Iran War

open.spotify.com/episode/0ZNd...

1 month ago 1 2 0 1
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Hit Or Missile Issue #296

Turkey news recapped with comments by @gonultol.bsky.social:

1. Airspace violated again, NATO boosts defenses
2. Calculations on Kurdish ground forces
3. Istanbul municipality trial underway
4. Domestic and diplomatic wraps
5. Sánchez sparks Turkey-Spain meme flood

1 month ago 2 2 0 0

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war:

1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4

1 month ago 18 9 1 2

Valuable thread from @gonultol.bsky.social

1 month ago 3 1 0 0
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Turkey caught in the vortex of a widening Iran war - Middle East Institute

conflict for four to five months. For Erdoğan, that would be a nightmare scenario ahead of possible early elections in 2027.

4️⃣ Most importantly, Ankara believes it has little leverage to shape the course of this war.4/4

👉 Read the rest here: mei.edu/publication/...

1 month ago 6 1 0 0

One vulnerable asset is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which supplies roughly one-third of Israel’s oil imports.
3️⃣ Turkish officials I spoke with say Iran and its allies have tens of thousands of drones, missiles, and rockets, potentially enough to sustain the 3/4

1 month ago 5 3 1 0

which decentralizes decision-making, makes such assurances hard to rely on.
2️⃣ Disrupting regional trade and energy flows appear to be the unifying strategy in this decentralized structure. That poses serious risks for Turkey, which sits at the crossroads of key energy corridors. 2/4

1 month ago 3 1 1 0

My latest piece on Turkey and the Iran war:

1️⃣ NATO intercepted a second Iranian missile that entered Turkish airspace. Ankara warned Tehran, while Iranian officials denied responsibility and said they respect Turkish sovereignty. But Iran’s so-called “mosaic defense” strategy, 1/4

1 month ago 18 9 1 2
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Middle East Institute on X: "How is the Iran war affecting Turkey? Energy dependence. Refugee risk. PKK concerns. Eastern Med tensions. MEI’s @gonultol explains in 80 seconds. https://t.co/Qpycdkth39" / X How is the Iran war affecting Turkey? Energy dependence. Refugee risk. PKK concerns. Eastern Med tensions. MEI’s @gonultol explains in 80 seconds. https://t.co/Qpycdkth39

x.com/middleeastin...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds?
After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds? YouTube video by Middle East Institute

🗞️ Sunday extras:

"After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds?" with David Romano and @gonultol.bsky.social . [1/5]

2 months ago 1 2 1 0
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After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds?
After Rojava: What’s Next for the Kurds? YouTube video by Middle East Institute

@gonultol.bsky.social talks with David Romano to unpack the collapse of the Kurdish forces in Syria.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfQL...

2 months ago 6 2 0 0

Done.

2 months ago 0 0 0 0

😀

2 months ago 1 0 0 0
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Turkey’s foreign minister says the US and Iran showing flexibility on nuclear deal, FT reports The United States and Iran are showing flexibility on a nuclear deal, with Washington appearing "willing" to tolerate some nuclear enrichment, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the Financial T...

Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan says Washington may be prepared to tolerate limited Iranian enrichment under strict limits, while Iran may accept tight caps and intrusive inspections resembling the 2015 model—if it gets meaningful sanctions relief. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

2 months ago 0 1 0 0
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The United States to Host Critical Minerals Ministerial - United States Department of State On February 4, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial at the Department of State in Washington, D.C. The United States will welcome delegations from...

In a geoeconomically fragmenting world, it is interesting to watch what actually counts as “power” for middle powers like Turkey. www.state.gov/releases/off...

2 months ago 2 0 0 0