Mymlan found the coziest place.

"And most importantly, an armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally at odds with Russia's national interests. [S]ome overexcited Russian experts would be well advised to forget their overly optimistic fantasies. And to prevent further reputational damage, never to mention them again."

"In short, there will be no Ukrainian blitzkrieg."

"regarding the duration... Russian expert community members suggest several hours, sometimes even several tens of minutes...[T]hey somehow forget that we've been through all this before. The phrase "taking a city with one parachute regiment in two hours" has become a classic."

There will likely be "massive Western assistance to the Ukrainian Armed Forces...In this regard, the West has already demonstrated an unprecedented consolidated position, which Moscow apparently did not anticipate...[T]he US and NATO countries will begin a kind of reincarnation of Lend-Lease."

"In this regard, we must always remember Alexander Suvorov's admonition: "Never despise your enemy, never consider him stupider or weaker than you.""

"over the past seven years, Ukraine has created a fundamentally different army, based on a completely different ideological foundation ...And Ukraine is currently receiving, and continues to receive, highly modern weapons and equipment from many NATO countries."

"Now regarding the thesis "The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a deplorable state." Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have problems with aviation and modern air defense systems. But one must also acknowledge the following."

"It's somehow forgotten that the Afghan opposition forces didn't have a single aircraft or combat helicopter during the 1979-1989 conflict. And the war in that country lasted for a full 10 years...The Ukrainian Armed Forces, however, do have some combat aircraft, as well as air defense assets."

"Sometimes, the Russian expert community asserts that since hypothetical military operations in Ukraine would take place under conditions of complete air superiority by Russian aircraft, the war would be extremely short-lived and would end in the shortest possible time."

"It must be added that the Russian Armed Forces' stockpiles of advanced, high-precision weapons are not unlimited...This arsenal is completely insufficient to wipe out a country the size of France and with a population of over 40 million people."

"To claim that no one in Ukraine will defend the regime is, in practice, a complete ignorance of the military-political situation...[T]he degree of hatred in the neighboring republic toward Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt, and flowers."

Khodarenok takes issue with those experts and "members of the Russian political class" who think an attack on Ukraine will be a walk in the park. It will be no such thing, he says.

Or I like to share this article by the former member of the Russian General Staff, Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, written three weeks before Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine.

nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2022-02-...

When people say it's pointless to try to forecast war, I like to tell them about P.H. Colomb's "The Great War of 189-" (1892) that described how an assassination attempt directed at a "Prince Ferdinand" in the Balkans triggered a wide European war through the mechanisms of alliances.

Smoke, Mirrors, and Memories. Legacies of the Soviet-Afghan War. By Jeffrey W. Jones Jeffrey W. Jones’ fine book Smoke, Mirrors, and Memories: Legacies of the Soviet-Afghan War is the latest addition to a series of recent monographs about t

track.smtpsendmail.com/9032119/c?p=...

My review of Jeffrey W. Jones' fine book Smoke, Mirrors, and Memories. Legacies of the Soviet-Afghan War (University of Toronto Press). Free link below.

Peter Duncan obituary Other lives: Lecturer at UCL who wrote books on Russian politics and advised the House of Commons

Nice obituary of Pete Duncan, the legendary scholar and teacher of Russian politics. Generations of students and colleagues benefitted from his kindness, his knowledge, and his academic rigour. A unique, and uniquely valuable, scholar. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

Peter Duncan obituary Other lives: Lecturer at UCL who wrote books on Russian politics and advised the House of Commons

Later, I was honored to have Dr Duncan as my external examiner. Thoughtful, thorough and engaging is how I remember his commentary on my work. His complimentary words, which he shared generously, meant the world to me.

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

I was sad to hear of the passing of Pete Duncan, an expert in Russian foreign policy and politics. I met and spoke to him on a few occasions as I was embarking on my PhD and was struck by his kindness and cheerfulness and how generously and attentively he spoke to me about my research ideas.

We must also remember that Orbán, despite his tough talk with the EU, (usually) knew when to fall in line. He kept supporting sanction packages against Russia, for example, barring on energy.

A dinasztia (The Dynasty) - így született az Orbán család gazdasági birodalma YouTube video by Direkt36

In case you missed it, this is a really interesting documentary about corruption during the Orbán era, its political uses and the legalistic manipulations that enabled it behind the veneer of propriety (the devil is in the fine print of tenders). It's with subtitles. /

youtu.be/bZ4SXv9qJHM?...

Tens of thousands chant “Russians, go home!” at tonight’s anti-Orbán concert in Budapest’s Heroes’ Square ahead of Sunday’s Hungarian election.

NEW: Zelenskyy confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian electronic warfare systems & interceptors were used to take down Iranian Shahed drones in “several” Gulf countries hosting US military infrastructure.

“Did we destroy them? Yes, we did,” he told @FT.
www.ft.com/content/d0db...

engagemang, samt kontakterna med Europa och de positiva signalerna om en omstart vg Ungerns utrikespolitik.

Ja, det är motiverat att vara skeptisk till en person som valde att stanna kvar, och försökte göra karriär, i Fidesz mellan 2002 och 2024, dvs under nästan hela dess auktoritära välde. Positiva tecken är att hans egen maktapparat är ganska svag och hans framgångar beroende av ett stort civila/

På Fidesz valmöte i Debrecen i går. En partisång som från början är en folksång som handlar om oklart vad: ”…mina tomater är röda, inte gröna…” Det svänger i alla fall.

Sen sjunger de här "den ungerska landsbygden har grönskat, det är vår. Vi litar inte på utländska ord. Vi kommer dra in dem i Fidesz, det är ingen fråga. Endast Fidesz är det säkra valet." Deras valkampanj har fått lite puls iallafall.

Ingen betalvägg f.ö.

Idétorkan är mycket stor hos Fidesz.