It's been the Air Power theorists’ promise for a century: victory from the air, certain, and at low risk.

Will the Chinese government can put as much pressure on Iran today as they could two weeks ago. You know who won't be chilled about a resumption of rocketing? KSA, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, that's who.

Not predicting! Never predicting! But here's the scenario I offered Matthew Wright on @lbc.co.uk just now: POTUS extends the cease-fire, says that Qalibaf and Aragchi are nobody, and now General Vahidi is in charge, is listening to him and Vahidi can get the Strait opened. #irgc #iran

Me on Friday: wow, the sanctions are back on! It wasn't keeping prices down anyway. The Ukrainians' engagement with the White House is rewarded! The trade is all going into the shadows and settled in RMB!

Me today: I guess Russia made a phone call.

Someone is going to say that the disconnect between Qalibaf/Aragchi and the #IRGC is a sign of cracks in the #Iran regime. It isn't. It's a sign that Qalibaf and Aragchi aren't the last word. They can now go back to Islamabad and say they need the USA to be more conciliatory.

The people in this trailer (like @rory-stewart.bsky.social and @alexvont.bsky.social) are really first-rate, so I’m really pleased that they’ll be drawing people in to watch this documentary on Monday and Tuesday nights 9pm on @channel4.bsky.social @channel4docs.bsky.social @voltagetv.bsky.social

If I were to pull out a couple of key words from discussing likely #American land component operations in #Iran with @darrylmorris.bsky.social on Times Radio they'd be RAID and DENY. Raiding Iranian locations to rob them of launching and mining capabilities, and denying operating locations to them.

You can't tell how cold it is on this beach in March!

If we didn't retaliate against a strike against an American target in a British Sovereign Base Area in Cyprus, why would we retaliate against a strike against an American base on BIOT?

Nice piece, Brynn!

The war of the refineries

I'm not a British government spokeswoman,but if a presenter asks me to thunder that Iran isn't the world’s war crimes police force, and shooting missiles at Diego Garcia isn't punishing Britain's imagined sins, I'm ready to thunder.

The first episode in the UK is about the Supermarine Spitfire, a platform about which I was uncharacteristically silent. I think I had plenty to say in all the other episodes, though!

A clear majority (eyeball: 80-90%?) of tankers present in and around Hormuz strait are sanctioned ones.

Probably not news to insiders, like @TankerTrackers who got me the sanctions-list, but it was to me.

Looking towards the firming-up of the converging US-#Israel narrative: the strategic aim has been to degrade Iranian offensive capability. Any continuing dominance of the #Iran regime is now framed as the fault of Iran's citizens who didn't try hard enough or want freedom enough.

The real cost of weapons in the Iran war YouTube video by ITV News

youtu.be/zA9TQD9LALw?...

Putin? Yes.

Zelenskiy said the UK pledged 5000 people to deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire. How could we commit that? Hint: VV Putin.

I don't think that would achieve Iran's aims.

'Locked and loaded': The targets the US could strike in Iran | The National Sinking IRGC navy, hitting air defences, special forces operations and striking nuclear sites would all be in US playbook, experts tell The National

As Gerry Ford moves into theatre to join the Abe Lincoln, If you were commander CENTCOM, what Iranian targets would you hit? Spoiler: my choice is to send the entire IRGC Navy to Davy Jones. Thomas Harding in The National (UAE)

www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/20...

I’m desperate to get out of a tank sitting in a field in an exercise area with nobody shooting at me!

Won’t someone make the Iranian theocracy go away? (A trailer from my substack)

A trailer of some of my comments from last night, from a substack video on the sort-of un-proscription of Palestine Action

Happy Valentine

The proscription of Palestine Action as a terrorist group is unlawful but the group is still proscribed. Starmer hasn’t got the political capital to make rational adjustments to terrorism legislation. My money quote: go damage Egyptian Air Force planes and see what that gets you.

For the past 18 months or so I’ve been talking about a gap between Israeli security requirements and US action in the Middle East. I think it’s getting harder for Netanyahu to leap back and forth across this gap. This is a trailer for a freebie video on my substack.

I've written this, and I want to make sure I haven't plagiarised it. It is definitely my conclusion from available open source, and I think it's common knowledge, but I wouldn't like to discover that someone whom I should acknowledge has published this. Thoughts?

I hope it doesn’t sound judgmental when I say that the US isn’t going to overthrow the Iranian government using a carrier battle group. If there were a regime change button they might push it, but America’s playing for a nuclear deal which they’ll spin as bringing ‘peace’ to the region.

This is a short clip with one reason why the UK hasn't proscribed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Apologies for the AI's difficulty with the word 'proscribe'.

open.substack.com/pub/nusbacher

The Lion and the unicorn unleashed on the dragon. A reset with China, a head-of-government visit, a reduction in China's tax on British whisky, and the promise of visa-free travel for Brits in China. Only Starmer could go to China, I guess.