While EU climate policy is all about "getting to net-zero", there is less talk about the phase-out of fossil fuels. Time to change that!
Join our webinar on EU scenarios to a (full) phase out of fossil fuels!
newpathways.eu/from-net-zer...
It is based on our paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We have one sensitivity scenario where we show that you don’t need CO2 storage if you have 370 MtCO2/yr natural sinks by 2050. However, current forest sinks are already quite uncertain and it’s hard to bet on them in the future not least due to increasing climate change impacts ;(.
There are other CDR options we have not included like enhanced rock weathering, biochar or ocean alkalinity enhancement. I’d asses their contribution to the EU 2050 goal as quite small, though, given their current status.
I also share concerns about CO2 storage not scaling up as quickly as needed. Technical feasibility of geological CO2 storage is established, though. Other technologies for hard-to-abate sectors (green H2, e-fuels, chemical recycling) are also in early stages.
Thanks for your interest. Different types of CO2 storage are currently explored; among them depleted oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. See iogpeurope.org/wp-content/u... for currently operational and planned projects.
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Happy to have your thoughts and feedback!
Big thanks to the co-authors! Among them:
@gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social @falkoueckerdt.bsky.social @adrianodenweller.bsky.social @rpietzcker.bsky.social from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
7/ It is critical for the #EUCommission to start thinking about the role of residual fossils at net-zero. Uncertainty around how much fossils can still be used might deter mitigation action. Our scenario analysis informs on implications of a far-reaching (90%) and a full fossil phase-out by 2050.
6/ In summary, we find that the EU net-zero goal implies a far-reaching phase-out of fossils (90%). This already is a tremendous effort, but is well in reach. Even a full fossil phase-out would be technically possible but comes with additional transformation challenges.
5/ Technologically, meeting net-zero in 2050 with either 10% or no residual fossils is, essentially, a choice between CO2 storage and e-fuels. The full phase-out requires drastic up-scaling of e-fuels, while the 90% case needs more CO2 storage. Note that both technologies need CO2 capture!
4/ To avoid the last 10% of fossils, marginal abatement costs increase substantially (from 460 to 630 EUR/tCO2). However, there is quite some uncertainty (see sensitivity scenarios). Aggregate mitigation costs do not increase as much as only few sectors are affected by high marginal costs.
3/ In the 90% phase-out scenario, fossil emissions of about 260 MtCO2/yr remain mainly in chemicals, aviation and shipping. For the full phase-out, remaining natural gas and oil-based products get replaced by expensive carbon-neutral e-fuels and a shifting of #bioenergy.
2/ In addition, if we limit #CCS as much as possible (to around 100 MtCO2/yr), net-zero is achieved with a near-total phase-out of fossil fuels (>99%). The 90% phase-out can be achieved mainly by #renewables and #electrification as well as some bioenergy and hydrogen. The last 10% require #e-fuels.
1/ There are hardly any scenarios out there that reach net-zero in the EU with low or no fossil fuel use. We show that taking into the 2050 net-zero target, the EU needs to reduce fossil very substantially, by at least 90% (black dashed line).
Our new study an EU #fossil #phase-out is out in @natcomms.nature.com.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Afaik, this is the first #IAM study investigating a complete fossil phase-out. How much do we need to reduce fossils for the EU 2050 goal? And would even a full fossil phase-out be possible?
Study on lowest still achievable global warming by @climateanalytics.org featuring our integrated assessment model REMIND from @pik-potsdam.bsky.social and my colleagues Fabrice Lécuyer, Chris Gong and @gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social.
Australia's grid operator has a clear line of sight to 100% renewables. There's nothing unknown or exotic required.
It'll be fun when the first large/major economies start hitting the goal. Too bad the US is likely to be at the rear of the pack.
Two new papers find renewables are good insurance (they stabilize electricity price volatility in welfare improving ways)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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r/ChatGPTPro u/vurto • 28d If ChatGPT is not consistently dependable, how are we suppose to use it for actual work? Discussion It's behavior and results can randomly change due to some OpenAl tweaking that's opaque. On some days it can't even keep track of a fresh chat, it can't do calculations, it can't sort through a chat to extract relevant information, and when it's suppose to refer to source material in a PDF, it doesn't. All because OpenAl trained it for fluency and basically to simulate whatever it can for user satisfaction. I can use it for general chats, philosophical stuff, therapy, but nothing serious. I'm pro Al, but I approach it with skepticism knowing it's undependable (as I do with anything I read). And prompts can be interpreted/executed differently across users' own interaction with their Als so it's not truly scalable. How does the business world / leaders expect staff to adopt Al if it's not consistently dependable? It doesn't even calculate like a calculator. If the internet start claiming 2+2=5, that's what it'll answer with. I'd use it for hobbies and pet projects but I can't imagine using it for anything "mission critical".
You're so close
Staggering figures.
Source: www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/b...
“Nepal, The Country Where 76% of Cars Sold Are Electric”
This graph from @fschreyer.bsky.social and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social colleagues illustrates the dilemma nicely "LeastCost" path involved scaling up CCS faster than historical precedents. Avoiding fossil-CDR ("FosFree") means doing same for e-fuels.
www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-5...
#Ariadne-Forscher @gunnarenergyclima.bsky.social vom @pik-potsdam.bsky.social zu den notwendigen #Investitionen für eine erfolgreiche #Energiewende, die Deutschlands #Wettbewerbsfähigkeit sichert.
Mehr dazu im neuen #Szenarienreport2025 vom Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne 👉 buff.ly/SSTJHC2
Jetzt erst recht: #StandWithUkraine!
Trump wendet sich von der Ukraine ab – wir nicht! Setze mit Tausenden ein Zeichen der Solidarität und Unterstützung. Gemeinsam für Freiheit, Demokratie & ein starkes Europa!
🗓️ Sonntag, 9. März, 17 Uhr
📍 Brandenburger Tor, Berlin
#Ariadne-Report kalkuliert Pfade zur #Klimaneutralität 2045 in Deutschland: Der Zusatzaufwand der #Transformation lässt sich durch kosteneffizienten #Klimaschutz je nach Szenario auf jahresdurchschnittlich 16 - 26 Mrd. Euro bis 2045 begrenzen, 0,4 - 0,7 Prozent der heutigen #Wirtschaftsleistung.
Investitionen für #Klimaneutralität 2045 in 🇩🇪 werden zum Großteil durch Minderausgaben für Gas/Öl/Kohle ausgeglichen. Zusatzaufwand bei kosteneffizienter Politik 0,4-0,7% des aktuellen BIP. @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social Ariadne-Szenarienreport mit Beteiligung PIK.
👇
www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles...
Viele Monate haben #Ariadne-Forschende aus sechs am @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social beteiligten Instituten an dem neuen #Szenarienreport2025 gearbeitet. Die wichtigsten #Erkenntnisse könnt ihr jetzt auch in knapp drei Minuten auf YouTube ansehen 👇 🎞️
Mehr dazu im vollständigen Report 👉 lnkd.in/ekaXRWuT
Wie kommen junge Männer und Frauen eigentlich miteinander klar?
🤔Was sogar viele Reiche als gerecht empfinden würden, passt nicht zu den Steuerplänen von Friedrich Merz. Er möchte weitere Entlastungen für hohe Einkommen.
👉Hier gehts zum Umfrage: act.gp/4hJc9Fm
Grade noch rechtzeitig vor der Bundestagswahl: das Opinion-Stück für die @nytimes.com über das Erstarken der Rechtsextremen, effektives "truth twisting" und die deutsche Geschichtsvergessenheit.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/o...
Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by car size, 2018-2023 IEA. CC BY 4.0. Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; SUV = sports utility vehicle. Analysis based on sales-weighted registrations. Small cars include A and B segments. Medium cars include C and D segments and A segments with SUV body type. Large cars include E and F segments, multi-purpose vehicles and B segments with SUV body type. SUV category in figure encompasses segments C to F with SUV body type. Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes
Nevertheless, from a policy perspective, it is critical to mitigate the negative spillovers associated with an increase in larger electric cars in the fleet. Larger electric car models have a significant impact on battery supply chains and critical mineral demand. In 2023, the sales-weighted average battery electric SUV in Europe had a battery almost twice as large as the one in the average small electric car, with a proportionate impact on critical mineral needs. Of course, the range of small cars is typically shorter than SUVs and large cars (see later section on ranges). However, when comparing electric SUVs and medium-sized electric cars, which in 2023 offered a similar range, the SUV battery was still 25% larger. This means that if all electric SUVs sold in 2023 had instead been medium-sized cars, around 60 GWh of battery equivalent could have been avoided globally, with limited impact on range. Accounting for the different chemistries used in China, Europe, and the United States, this would be equivalent to almost 6 000 tonnes of lithium, 30 000 tonnes of nickel, almost 7 000 tonnes of cobalt, and over 8 000 tonnes of manganese. Larger manganese also require more power, or longer charging times. This can put pressure on electricity grids and charging infrastructure by increasing occupancy, which could create issues during peak utilisation, such as at highway charging points at high traffic times. In addition, larger vehicles also require greater quantities of materials such as iron and steel, aluminium and plastics, with a higher environmental and carbon footprint for materials production, processing and assembly. Because they are heavier, larger models also have higher electricity consumption. The additional
energy consumption resulting from the increased mass is mitigated by regenerative braking to some extent, but in 2022, the sales-weighted average electricity consumption of electric SUVs was 20% higher than that of other electric cars. 6 Major carmakers have announced launches of smaller and more affordable electric car models over the past few years. However, when all launch announcements are considered, far fewer smaller models are expected than SUVs, large models and pick-up trucks. Only 25% of the 400+ launches expected over the 2024-2028 period are small and medium models, which represents a smaller share of available models than in 2023. Even in China, where small and medium models have been popular, new launches are typically for larger cars.
Nice bit from the IEA on the problem with constantly inflating EV size - mainly, massively higher mineral demand and electricity demand when charging them
iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a9e35...
