New #ONS estimates of #families and #households in the #UK, up to 2025, were released today (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...). The most eye-catching finding is the trend towards living with parents, especially so for young men.
Here’s a thread with some key takeaways 🧵:
If we want to be a rich country and there are regimes that are militarily threatening us, then we should spend money on defense.
But what is the point being a rich country if we can't offer all our citizens a decent life and livelihood?
'Ever-expanding welfare budget' klaxon. There is no welfare budget and welfare expenditure as % GDP does not show a consistent rising trend over any timeframe since the 1980s. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
@pjtheeconomist.bsky.social times column this week is an incredibly pithy (even by his standards!) summary of the issues and changes in working age welfare - including why spending on it isn't out of control.
🚨 New Substack: Higher energy prices could leave typical British households £480 worse off this year
@mikebrewerecon.bsky.social and the RF team unpack what higher bills mean for living standards ⤵️
What might the oil price shock do to living standards at different parts of the income distribution? See the article below for a summary, and a link to this morning's great event with Jeremy Hunt and others.
Today the Fair Work Agency was launched, bringing enforcement of several employment rights under one roof. This is a really welcome move, but its impact will depend on its resources and powers. A thread summarising the latest RF Labour Market Outlook: 🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
There's a considerable difference between annual energy bills of nearly £4k and £2k.
In 2022, we called for universal support but raised the prospect of funding (some or all of) it through an emergency income tax increase. It's not dissimilar to a social tariff in its impacts.
Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Is Britain running out of babies? And what will that mean?
I’ve learnt so much helping out on
@charliemccurdy.bsky.social’s brilliant report on the biggest of all social challenges
Don’t miss it tomorrow
Also, In the Ukraine energy crisis, we said that, while a social tariff was ideal, a universal system of energy support alongside a temporary rise in Income Tax (via thresholds or rates) had similar distributional impacts.
So two thumbs-up from me.
I love Cold Weather Payments and we at RF have argued before that they should be given to more people and in less-cold conditions.
Last call for tomorrow's @mileendinstitute.bsky.social event on "Inequality and the Future of London", co-hosted with @politicalquarterly.bsky.social.
Join @rupahuq.bsky.social @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social
@sachahilhorst.bsky.social & Graeme Atherton. All welcome!
www.eventbrite.com/e/inequality...
UK authors - I urge you to read this article about a school in Manchester who removed hundreds of our books from their library they deemed ‘inappropriate’ and share. This is appalling censorship - and it’s coming from the school’s head and SLT themselves. @indexoncensorship.org
Oooooof.
Saw them live at Portsmouth Guildhall in 91 or 92 on the Screamadelica tour (I had cool school friends). I seem to recall they didn't start playing until about 1030.
Yes! This!!
Chart showing historical annualised default tariff cap levels, direct debit customers with typical consumption, and projection under high gas price scenario: GB
Prolonged highs in gas prices could push up the price cap by around £500 in July.
The government should use the time between now and then to think smartly about how support can target vulnerable families with lower incomes and high energy needs.
Read more 👉 buff.ly/bDPVzLB
This is going to be a banger.
You literally are a social scientist!
A sickening society is clear in these statistics
So why is it not in the news?
Powerful wake-up call from @chakrabortty.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
I adore this book and tend to thrust it on anyone (and it's not science fiction...it's fiction, or speculative fiction).
In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?"
So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵
This makes a very good point. Although a world where we only ever indexed welfare to prices would be one with ever increasing income inequality offset in part by ever improving public services.
On 26 March, the @mileendinstitute.bsky.social and @politicalquarterly.bsky.social will be holding a special event on "Inequality & the Future of London".
Join @rupahuq.bsky.social @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social @sachahilhorst.bsky.social and Joe Fyans. All welcome!
www.eventbrite.com/e/inequality...
chart showing Welfare spending as a share of GDP (left) and in real terms (right), by category, outturn and forecast: UK
How has today's forecast affected the outlook for welfare spending?
There has been little change, and considering spending as a share of GDP it does not look out of control.
The family voting thing is weird. As a Presiding Officer, it's really difficult to deal with. The only time I've been shouted out by a voter was stepping in to try and prevent it happening.
And parents don't take kindly to you saying they can't take their kids into the booth...
🧵 of snaps from doing this piece in Gorton & Denton www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/724...
1. Longsight is … confused! … 2 shops a few feet away with BOTH Green & Labour posters up
Jonathan Marshal, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Next week’s energy price cap announcement will show a significant drop in households bills, largely because of the Government’s £6.9 billion energy bill discount. “The policy is well designed. By reducing electricity unit rates it supports the shift towards electrification at the same time as delivering savings worth twice as much to the poorest families as to the richest, as a share of spending. “However, this support is due to end in April 2029. The Government should set out a clear and durable framework for deciding which energy policy costs are funded by bills and which through taxation soon, to avoid scrambling for a solution in an election year.”
On Wednesday, Ofgem is expected to announce that the energy price cap for Q2 2026 will be nearly £120 lower than current levels.
This policy will deliver a clear boost to living standards from April, and should help to keep bills below current levels until at least 2029.
